C.O. jobless rates fall despite seasonal slowdown

Despite the typical early winter slowdown in construction and tourism, Central Oregon jobless rates were still on the decline in November, to some of the lowest levels in recent years, the state Employment Department reported Tuesday.

“We are nearing the seasonal low for hiring in Central Oregon,” Regional Economist Damon Runberg said in his monthly report. “All Central Oregon counties posted job losses in November as construction and the tourism industry settle into winter mode. Although we are a winter vacation destination, the summer tourism season accounts for significantly more jobs in Central Oregon.”

Crook County: The unemployment rate dropped to 7 percent in November, down significantly from the revised rate of 7.3 percent in October. November’s drop in the unemployment rate was the first significant decline in the rate since this past spring. The rate remains down significantly from last year when it was 8.1 percent.

Seasonal job losses continued in November with Crook County shedding 110 jobs from October, a slightly larger decline than expected this time of year. We will likely continue to see seasonal layoffs through January. Construction, federal agencies, and leisure and hospitality accounted for most of the job losses over the past month.

Employment levels are little changed from this time last year (+40 jobs). However, total nonfarm employment is being pulled down by a loss of 40 jobs over the past year in the public sector. The private sector is up a modest 80 jobs (+1.8%) behind relatively strong growth from health care, retail, wholesale trade, and information. Private sector job losses were largely concentrated in manufacturing, which remains down 50 jobs from last November.

Deschutes County (Bend-Redmond MSA): The unemployment rate dropped to 4.5 percent in November, which is among the lowest levels in recent history. That rate is down significantly from 4.9 percent in October and 5.7 percent from this time last year.

Deschutes County lost 400 jobs in November, which was fewer than expected for this time of year. These seasonal job losses were most noticeable in construction and leisure and hospitality. There was some hiring in retail trade as we enter the prime holiday shopping period.

Rates of job growth continue to slow in Deschutes County. The county added around 3,500 jobs in the past year (+4.7%). Rates of over-the-year job growth hovered around 6.5-7.0 percent for the first half of 2016. The only industry to post job losses over the past year was financial activities; otherwise all major industry sectors are up from this time last year. The slowing growth is not due to layoffs, but a plateau in hiring as we approach “full employment.”

Jefferson County: The unemployment rate dropped to 6.6 percent in November from the revised rate of 7 percent in October. The rate was 7.4 percent last November.

Jefferson County shed 100 jobs in November, fewer losses than typically expected this time of year.

Employment levels are up a very modest 60 jobs from this time last year (+1%). Job growth was largely driven by gains in construction and the public sector. No major industry sector posted significant job losses over the past year, although manufacturing is down by 20 jobs.