Bend knocking at the door of being home to 100,000

Imagine a Bend that has 100,000 residents — not counting all those winter or summer visitors. You might not have long to wait — and if you’ve lived in the area for long, you might not be all that surprised to learn that milestone is just around the corner.

The U.S. Census Bureau issued its new population estimates for U.S. cities and towns Wednesday night, and it estimated Bend had grown to 94,520 residents as of last July 1. That’s 3,905 more residents than one year earlier, a 4.31 percent growth rate.

The Census folks say that puts Bend at No. 12 among the 15 fastest-growing large cities and towns — nestled between the town of Flower Mound, Texas and the city of Cedar Park, Texas. (Texas holds down seven spots in the top 15.)

The Census Bureau’s July 1, 2017 population estimate for Bend is well above the one released last fall by the Portland State University Population and Research Center. The researchers found Bend had grown by a similar amount — 3.91 percent — but said the city had “only” 86,765 residents on that date. That’s 7,755 fewer than what the feds figured. Other Central Oregon cities also grew larger in the Census Bureau’s eyes than PSU’s, and that’s fairly common over the years.

As is often the case, the farther out we get from the last true head count — the April 1, 2010 Census — the more the PSU and Census Bureau estimates diverge. In Bend’s case, the Census Bureau believes Bend has about 9 percent more residents than PSU figured.

By means of comparison, Bend had 17,300 residents in 1980, topped the 25,000 population mark in 1993, hit 50,000 in 1999 and had 70,330 residents in 2005. A 2004 coordinated population forecast was pretty close, predicting more than 90,000 residents by 2015 and topping 100,000 by 2020.

So despite all the issues residents are so familiar with, from traffic and potholes to sewers, in-fill, multi-story buildings and the like, will Bend top 100,000 residents by the April 1, 2020 Census?

“I don’t think 100,000 by 2020 is inconceivable,” Bend Senior Planner Damian Syrnyk said. “That means Bend would need to grow by 5,480 people between July 1, 2017 and April 1, 2020. Not inconceivable at all, if you consider the population of Bend grew by almost 4,000 people” between 2016 and 2017.

Two other High Desert cities also hit milestones last year, according to the new Census Bureau figures. Redmond’s population estimate topped 30,000, reaching 30,011 by last July, while Prineville crossed the 10,000-resident threshold, with an estimate of 10,055.

La Pine’s population grew by a modest 40 people over the year, to an estimated 1,864, while Sisters grew to 2,701 residents by last July.

Madras grew to an estimated 6,839 residents, while Culver topped the 1,500 mark, with an estimated population of 1,508 residents, and Metolius grew by 22 people, to a population estimate of 773.