Oregon’s jobless rate holds steady at 3.6% in November, despite workforce decline of 7,300 jobs

(Update: State economist explains differing numbers)

SALEM, Ore. (KTVZ) -- Oregon’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment declined by 7,300 jobs in November, following a revised loss of 4,300 jobs in October, but the state's unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%, the Oregon Employment Department reported Wednesday.

November’s losses were largest in professional and business services (-2,900 jobs); construction (-1,700); leisure and hospitality (-1,500); financial activities (-1,300); and information (-1,000). The only industry growing substantially in November was health care and social assistance, which added 2,400 jobs.

Professional and business services expanded slower than overall employment over the past 12 months, adding 3,000 jobs, or 1.1%, compared with growth of 39,600 jobs, or 2.0%, for total nonfarm payroll employment. While most of the industry grew over this period, employment services trended downward, cutting 3,500 jobs, or 7.7%, since November 2022.

Construction rose rapidly during most of the past two years. November’s drop of 1,700 jobs was preceded by big gains totaling 5,700 jobs during January through October.

Although leisure and hospitality gained 6,800 jobs, or 3.4%, in the past 12 months, the industry showed recent weakness by cutting 2,900 jobs between August and November.

Government added 500 jobs in November and was up 10,200 jobs, or 3.4%, in the past 12 months. It has consistently expanded over the past three years. In November, local government reached a record high of 234,200 jobs, adding 6,900 jobs in the past 12 months. 

Health care and social assistance grew the fastest of the major industries over the past 12 months, adding 17,900 jobs, or 6.5%. Gains during that time were led by social assistance and nursing and residential care facilities, which each grew by close to 8.5%.

Oregon’s unemployment rate was 3.6% in both October and November. November was the seventh consecutive month in which Oregon’s unemployment rate was between 3.4% and 3.7%. The U.S. unemployment rate was 3.9% in October and 3.7% in November.

Asked how the jobless rate could hold fairly steady while workforce numbers declined, state Economist Gail Krumenauer provided this explanation to NewsChannel 21:

"Two things here: the first is that we’re looking at two different things side by side. The unemployment rate comes from a survey of households. It includes people who work on employer payrolls, and the self-employed, and people who live in Oregon but work remotely for an employer in California or Kansas."

"And I would also add that those who are unemployed are not just those who lost jobs – there are people who newly enter the labor force and haven’t found a job yet – they are unemployed. There are also people who voluntarily leave their jobs without another one lined up."  

"The monthly jobs numbers come from a separate survey of business establishments located in Oregon, asking them how many workers are on their payrolls," she explained.

"Second: these two measures aren’t as out of sync as they might seem. If we look more broadly at the last handful of months, we’ve had a couple of months with job gains, and a few with job losses. So far in the second half of the year, we’ve lost a few thousand jobs, or 0.2% of total nonfarm payroll employment. During that same time, the size of the labor force has been pretty stable. The number of unemployed people has risen by about 2,500, and the unemployment rate has changed from a record low 3.4% to 3.6%.

"When we step back and take a look at the recent trends, those seem to make sense together," Krumenauer said.