America's house-poor metros: Where mortgage owners stretch the 30% rule
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Homeownership has long been considered one of the pillars of financial security in America. Still, for many households, the cost of maintaining that dream increasingly comes at the expense of daily financial stability. The commonly referenced 30% rule, which recommends that households not spend more than 30% of their income on housing, has become significantly harder to achieve as mortgage rates, insurance premiums, and property taxes rise.
Splitero leveraged data from the United States Census American Community Survey (ACS) to understand where residents are the most house-poor, meaning their housing costs make up 30% or more of their income, broken down by city. Using the most recent ACS release from 2024, this story reveals the top 10 and bottom 10 most house-poor cities, among cities with at least 40,000 owner occupied housing units.
These values were then compared to those in 2019 to highlight the stark differences in each city 5 years apart. These findings show sharp geographic divides and rapid affordability deterioration across the Sun Belt and coastal markets, despite some Midwest and Southern metros remaining relatively insulated.
Key Takeaways
- The most house-poor metros are dominated by California and Florida, led by Los Angeles, where 47.6% of mortgage owners spend at least 30% of their income on housing.
- The least house-poor metros are concentrated in the Midwest and Southeast, with places like Huntsville (19.4%), Chandler (20.0%), and Chattanooga (21.9%) keeping a much smaller share of owners above the 30% threshold.
- Affordability is deteriorating fastest in emerging hot spots such as Cape Coral and North Las Vegas, where the share of cost-burdened homeowners has surged from roughly 27% to more than 42% since 2019.
- California stands out statewide: across its 20 largest owner-occupied cities, 39.4% of mortgage owners now exceed the 30% rule (up from 37.5% in 2019).
Metros with the highest and lowest share of homeowners spending above 30% of their income
The nation’s most house-poor metros overwhelmingly cluster in California, Florida, and major urban coastal markets, according to data from 2024:
1. Los Angeles, California: 47.6%
2. Chula Vista, California: 45.2%
3. Cape Coral, Florida: 44.3%
4. Fort Lauderdale, Florida: 44.2%
T-5. Miami, Florida: 44%
T-5. New York, New York: 44%
T-7. Honolulu, Hawai’i: 43%
T-7. New Orleans, Louisiana: 43%
9. North Las Vegas, Nevada: 42.9%
10. Irvine, California: 42.8%
There are a myriad of reasons why these metros have seen mortgage owners spending more than the recommended 30% of their income on housing, but price changes on homes in these markets are a major factor. Limited supply amid increased demand, higher costs of capital, and wage adjustments mean the income needed to buy a single-family home has doubled since 2019, as outlined by a CBRE Investment Management study.
Conversely, there are 10 metros across the United States where a smaller minority of residents spend above 30% of their income on their home:
1. Huntsville, Alabama: 19.4%
2. Chandler, Arizona: 20%
3. Wichita, Kansas: 20.3%
4. Naperville, Illinois: 20.5%
5. Cary, North Carolina: 20.6%
6. Olathe, Kansas: 21%
7. Lincoln, Nebraska: 21.7%
8. Chattanooga, Tennessee: 21.9%
9. Madison, Wisconsin: 22.2%
10. Grand Rapids, Michigan: 22.4%
Metros where the share has grown and declined the most
Looking beyond where homeowners are most stretched today, it’s just as important to see where affordability is moving in the wrong, or right, direction.
In some markets, the share of cost-burdened homeowners has jumped sharply from 2019 to 2024, signaling emerging affordability pressure:
1. Olathe, Kansas: 12.2% in 2019, 21% in 2024
2. Cape Coral, Florida: 27.5% in 2019, 44.3% in 2024
3. North Las Vegas, Nevada: 26.8% in 2019, 42.9% in 2024
4. The Villages, Florida: 28.7% in 2019, 42.1% in 2024
5. Grand Prairie, Texas: 26.9% in 2019, 39.2% in 2024
In places like Cape Coral and North Las Vegas, the share of mortgage owners who are “house poor” has increased by more than 15 percentage points since 2019. That suggests not only that homes have become more expensive to buy, but also that many existing homeowners are now devoting a larger portion of their monthly paycheck to staying in those homes.
On the other end of the spectrum, a handful of metros have seen meaningful improvements in affordability by this metric:
1. Chattanooga, Tennessee: 32.4% in 2019, 21.9% in 2024
2. Des Moines, Iowa: 45.2% in 2019, 36.7% in 2024
3. Little Rock, Arkansas: 27.9% in 2019, 23.1% in 2024
4. Enterprise, Nevada: 31.9% in 2019, 27.1% in 2024
5. Garland, Texas: 38.1% in 2019, 32.5% in 2024
These markets aren’t necessarily “cheap” across the board, but they are trending in a more sustainable direction. Chattanooga, for instance, not only appears on the list of metros with the lowest current share of cost-burdened homeowners, it has also reduced that share by more than 10 percentage points since 2019. That combination (relatively low burden today and improvement over time) marks it as a standout for homeowners looking to avoid being stretched too thin.
California zoomed in
California continues to be home to some of the most financially stretched mortgage owners. Among the 20 cities with the most owner-occupied units in California, the share of mortgage owners spending over 30% of income is 39.4% in 2024, as compared to 37.5% in 2019. By largest metros across the state, the percentages look as follows:
- Los Angeles: 47.6%
- San Diego: 36.1%
- San Jose: 34.6%
- San Francisco: 35.9%
- Sacramento: 32.6%
As outlined in a U.S. & World News Report interview with Chris Motola, a special projects editor from National Business Capital, the state’s affordability strain is primarily driven by limited developable land, regulations that slow housing approvals, and strong high-wage migration patterns from other areas in the country.
What this housing landscape means for homeowners
The 30% rule is an established guideline for healthy housing costs. The recommendation limits spending to no more than 30% of income on housing so that enough money can be left over for essentials such as rainy-day funds, healthcare, transportation, and childcare. Our analysis shows that whether that’s realistic depends heavily on where you live. In coastal and fast-growing Sun Belt metros like Los Angeles, Miami, and Cape Coral, nearly half of mortgage holders are unable to live by the 30% guideline, while many parts of the Midwest and Southeast still offer a more sustainable path to ownership.
For homeowners who feel stretched, the goal is to create more breathing room rather than chase a perfect number. That might mean tightening day-to-day spending, refinancing or restructuring high-interest debt, or lengthening a loan term to bring payments down. It can also include putting built-up home equity to work through options like home equity loans or home equity investments, to tackle higher-cost debt, fund necessary repairs, or rebuild a financial cushion.
As policymakers debate zoning reforms, interest rates, and how to expand housing supply, individual homeowners are already making adjustments. Knowing where your metro sits in the national picture, and how much of your income your home is truly consuming, is a critical starting point for protecting both your house and your overall financial health.
Methodology
Splitero analyzed the United States Census American Community Survey (ACS) to identify where residents’ housing costs make up 30% or more of their income, broken down by city. Specifically, the analysis looked at the most recent ACS release (2024) and the 2019 release, for a comparative view. It filtered out cities with less than 40,000 owner occupied housing units; in total, 140 cities were analyzed.
This story was produced by Splitero and reviewed and distributed by Stacker.
