A Democrat flipped a state Senate seat in Texas. Republicans say it’s a ‘wake-up call’ for the midterms

(CNN) — A Democratic win in a special election in solidly red Texas is sparking a new wave of warnings from Republicans on Capitol Hill about finetuning messaging and revving up turnout heading into the midterm elections.

“It should be a warning, and I think we’ve got to respond,” said Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, adding President Donald Trump won on border and inflation issues and “if we were to focus on that and still focus on that, I think we’d be a lot better off.”

Nine months until the November elections, Republican angst over a double-digit Democratic victory in a state Senate district Trump won by 17 points in 2024 is settling in from Texas to the nation’s capital.

“It should be a wake-up call because I think most Republicans are satisfied with what the Trump administration has done. His numbers amongst Republicans are good, but they’re going to have to come out and vote and I think that’ll help change the election environment,” said Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma.

“But hey, no doubt about it, minority parties win off-year elections most times,” Cole added. “Republicans ought to understand it’s going to take an exceptional effort to hold the majority.”

The win Saturday by Democrat Taylor Rehmet in the Fort Worth-area district is the latest in a string of special election triumphs by the party since the start of Trump’s second term. Rehmet, a union president and veteran, defeated Trump-endorsed candidate Leigh Wambsganss by 14 points – representing a roughly 31-point swing from Trump’s 2024 margin.

“The problem is bigger than they think it is,” Rehmet said of Republicans Monday during an appearance with CNN’s Erin Burnett. “Because working folks have been left behind, and we need to start finding creative ways to lower costs and help folks out in this economy.”

Implications for November

Rehmet’s victory has prompted Republicans to reassess the party’s political standing as they grapple with the president’s low approval ratings and historical trends that traditionally go against the party in the White House.

“That’s not an accident. That’s an issue,” one Republican strategist familiar with Texas races said. “That doesn’t happen very often.”

“I haven’t studied those Texas numbers specifically, but I mean, anytime that you lose a race in red areas, it would be concerning,” said Montana Sen. Steve Daines, a former chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Rehmet said his campaign also worked to win back Latino voters who swung to Trump in the last presidential election.

“We showed up with Latino voters from the very beginning,” he said, saying he tried to reach out to a community “often overlooked, definitely underserved.”

The race played out as Republicans and Democrats in the state will hold Senate primaries next month, which will test the direction of each party in the conservative state. Republicans are engaged in a three-way primary between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt. The Democratic primary features two rising stars in the party – Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico.

The special election contest, which was held on a weekend during a cold stretch in Texas, saw low turnout, an issue many Republicans officials pointed to as they took stock of the results.

“It was obviously a rough night, and it underscores the need for Republican turnout in November,” said Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. “I think we’re all taking the midterms seriously.”

In the final stretch of the election, the president sought to turn out base voters, posting three times on social media. But in the aftermath of the election, Trump distanced himself from the Republican contest.

“I’m not involved with that. That’s a local Texas race,” Trump told reporters Sunday when asked about the race.

Calls to focus on areas of strength

But others have warned the race should serve as “wake-up call” for the president and his party as they craft their messaging for the midterms.

“There’s all this other stuff going on, whether it’s tariffs, the voters are overwhelmingly for Ukraine, and he’s not been there on that. So I think there’s so many areas that the president and our team to be stronger on,” said Bacon, who is not seeking reelection.

“I think it’s an anomaly, but I don’t think it’s something that you want to brush off,” said Rep. Jodey Arrington of Texas, adding that while he believes the GOP will have advantages, including resources, “you got to run through the tape.”

Arrington said Republicans need to address issues like health care affordability and cracking down on fraud in order to overcome some of the barriers they face.

“I see this as a good reminder to Republicans that historically, we are fighting uphill, not downhill, because of the current power dynamic, and that happens all the time,” he said. “The only way we are going to overcome it is if we continue to do what the president was elected and sent here with a mandate to do and what we promised and not to take our foot off the pedal.”

Republicans also are contending with a deeply energized Democratic base. A recent CNN poll showed Democratic registered voters were far more motivated to vote this year than Republicans – despite widespread dissatisfaction with party leaders.

On Monday, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries quipped “the Republicans done effed up in Texas, and they know it,” when asked about the state Senate race.

Jeffries predicted that despite Republicans attempts to redraw Texas congressional maps in an effort to gain five more seats, “they’re going to struggle to win three based on 2024 performance, let alone what we’ve seen literally over the last year.”

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who is looking to maintain the GOP majority in the upper chamber, downplayed the Democratic win but acknowledged his party needs to do more to connect with voters.

“The party in power typically has headwinds they’re facing, as I’ve said before, going into midterm elections. But I think there are a lot of factors, and these races are all, have their own unique features and characteristics,” Thune said.

“I think the, you know, the message is, we gotta up our game and make sure that we’re doing everything to, to give people, particularly voters in the middle of the electorate who decide these types of elections, a reason to vote for our candidates,” Thune added. “And I believe we will do that.”

CNN’s Morgan Rimmer contributed to this report.

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