Central Oregon jobless rates fall as recovery continues
But data revision based on tax records promises clearer picture in a month
BEND, Ore. (KTVZ) -- Central Oregon's unemployment rates fell in September as the economic recovery continued, the state's regional economist said Tuesday, but new payroll tax records will make for a clearer picture next month.
"The recovery continued at an accelerated pace in September across the High Desert," Regional Economist Damon Runberg said, but he added, "Despite the improvement, I am reluctant to draw too many conclusions from this monthly release."
"We are in the process of benchmarking the monthly employment data to payroll tax records from businesses through June," Runberg wrote. "There will be significant revisions to the employment trend based on this benchmarking process."
But there also could be some good news in those revisions, for two counties at least, he added.
"The first look at the tax records hint at employment losses due to COVID-19 in both Crook and Jefferson counties being dramatically lower than originally estimated," the economist said. "However, it seems like Deschutes County’s initial estimates of job losses and the early recovery align closely with these tax records."
Runberg said the benchmarked employment estimates and a longer analysis of the trend will be released with the October employment situation on Nov. 24.
Here's his release on September's figures:
Employment in Central Oregon: September 2020
This release of the September 2020 employment estimates is the last before a benchmark of the data using payroll records through June 2020, capturing the volatile labor market due to COVID-19. This will be a short release, as we know there will be significant revisions, particularly for the rural communities in Central Oregon.
Crook County: The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 9.1 percent in September, down from the revised rate of 9.7 percent in August. The unemployment rate is much improved since May, but still higher than before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic; it was 4.8 percent in March 2020.
Total nonfarm employment rose by 40 jobs in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, continuing the recovery from the initial COVID-19 shock in April.
Crook County has recovered 250 of the 800 jobs lost during the COVID-19 crisis. As of September, seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment levels remain down by around 8.3 percent, compared with March 2020. The hardest-hit industry remains leisure and hospitality, with employment down 200 jobs from this time last year. Construction, information, and professional and business services all added jobs over the past year.
Deschutes County (Bend-Redmond MSA): The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 7.5 percent in September, down from a revised rate of 8.4 percent in August. Despite the dramatic improvement over the past several months, the rate remains significantly higher than before the COVID-19 crisis; it was 3.3 percent in March 2020.
Seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment posted very strong gains in September. Deschutes County added 1,800 jobs (+2.2%) in September, after a revised gain of 680 jobs in August.
Total nonfarm employment remains down roughly 7.6 percent from before the COVID-19 crisis in February 2020 (-6,080 jobs). The labor market remains far from recovered as Deschutes County has only regained 53 percent of the 14,540 jobs lost during the onset of the pandemic. Leisure and hospitality accounts for roughly 60 percent of the job losses over the past year. Construction remains the only major industry sector to add jobs over the past year (+240 jobs).
Jefferson County: The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 8.5 percent in September, down from 9.6 percent in August. The rate remains up significantly from before the COVID-19 crisis; it was 4.2 percent in March 2020.
Jefferson County added 100 jobs in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, following a gain of 130 jobs in August.
Jefferson County has added back roughly 35 percent of the total nonfarm jobs lost during the peak of the COVID-19 crisis. There remain 840 fewer seasonally adjusted jobs in September compared with February. Job losses over the past year are concentrated in leisure and hospitality (-230 jobs); Indian tribal government (-180 jobs); and manufacturing (-120 jobs). No major industry sector added jobs over the past year.
Next Press Releases
The Oregon Employment Department plans to release the October county and metropolitan area unemployment rates on Tuesday, November 24th and the statewide unemployment rate and employment survey data for October on Tuesday, November 17th.
