Home-price rise falters in Deschutes, nationally
The surge in home prices in Deschutes County and nationwide has slowed markedly as prices fell in the most recent month, CoreLogic, a global property data firm, said Tuesday in its September CoreLogic Home Price Index report.
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 5.6 percent in September 2014 compared to September 2013. This change represents 31 months of consecutive year-over-year increases in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, dropped by 0.1 percent in September 2014 compared to August 2014.
At the state level, including distressed sales, all states showed year-over-year home price appreciation in September.
Two of those states, Michigan and Montana, showed double-digit year-over-year growth. Twenty-eight states and the District of Columbia were at or within 10 percent of their home price peak. The HPI reached new highs in a total of five states: Colorado, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Texas.
Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationally increased 5.2 percent in September 2014 compared to September 2013 and 0.1 percent month over month compared to August 2014.
Also excluding distressed sales, 49 states and the District of Columbia showed year-over-year home price appreciation in August, with Mississippi being the only state to experience a year-over-year decline(-0.9 percent). Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices, including distressed sales, are projected to increase 0.1 percent month over month from September 2014 to October 2014 and, on a year-over-year basis, by 5 percent from September 2014 to September 2015.
Excluding distressed sales, home prices are expected to rise 0.1 percent month over month from September 2014 to October 2014 and by 4.6 percent** year over year from September 2014 to September 2015.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a monthly projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
“There has been a clear bifurcation in home price growth for lower-end vs. upper-end properties in 2014,” said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic. “As of December 2013, both lower-end and upper-end property prices were up 9.7 percent on a year over year basis. As of September, lower-end prices were up 9.4 percent but upper-end prices were up only 4.5 percent.”
“Home prices continue to rise compared with this time last year but the rate of growth is clearly slowing as we exit 2014,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “With more positive macro-economic trends emerging in the U.S., we are forecasting moderate price growth for 2015.”
Home Prices in Bend-Redmond Increase
In Bend-Redmond (Deschutes County), home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 8.0 percent in September 2014 compared to September 2013. On a month-over-month basis, home prices, including distressed sales, decreased by 1.3 percent in September 2014 compared to October 2014.
Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices increased by 8.5 percent in September 2014 compared to September 2013. On a month-over-month basis, excluding distressed sales, the CoreLogic HPI indicates home prices decreased by 0.4 percent in September 2014 compared to October 2014.
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Meanwhile, Compass Commercial Real Estate Services reported more leasing and fewer vacancies in its third-quarter survey results, as reported in the current issue of Compass Points.
“This quarter’s data shows positive absorption and decreased vacancy in all of the markets surveyed (office, retail and industrial),” the firm said. “Some of the submarkets were negative, yet each market category remained positive as a whole. This speaks volumes about the economic picture in Central Oregon.”
Bend’s citywide office vacancy rate dropped slightly, they said, to 11.37% from Q2’s report of 11.44%, marking the tenth consecutive drop and the lowest office vacancy rate since the first quarter of 2008, when Bend’s office vacancy stood at 11.18%. The survey results showed that 285,366 sq. ft. of space is now available for lease, compared to 287,002 sq. ft. at the end of Q2 2014.
The citywide retail market dropped slightly from 8.58% in Q2 to 8.05% this quarter, with absorption of 23,508 sq. ft. of net-leased space.
“Market conditions continue to improve overall in the retail sector, both in terms of absorption and in terms of increased lease rates,” Compass Commercial said..
The citywide industrial vacancy fell this quarter to 7.96%, down from 8.23% in Q2 2014. Approximately 328,144 sq. ft. of space is now available for lease, down slightly from 339,068 sq. ft. at the end of Q2 2014.
“This is the lowest vacancy we have experienced in years and we are now in a range that we consider normal and healthy for our market,” they said.
To view an online version or to subscribe to the quarterly publication, visit www.compasscommercial.com and click on the Compass Points icon.
