Trump’s energy strategy is ‘drill baby drill.’ It’s going to be much harder than that

(CNN) — President-elect Donald Trump campaigned on a three-word energy policy: “Drill, baby, drill.” But his cabinet picks for energy and environment — and the current fossil fuel economy — suggest it’s not going to be that easy.

There is no question that, in stark contrast to the climate-focused Biden administration, the people Trump is surrounding himself with will carry out the fossil fuel industry’s wish list to juice oil production and demand for its products. They are poised to roll back regulations that favor electric vehicles and fuel-efficient hybrids and approve Gulf Coast projects to liquefy and ship natural gas abroad.

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Trump’s new energy czar and pick for Interior Secretary, will oversee much of this work alongside Chris Wright, a Colorado-based natural gas fracking CEO and Trump’s pick for Energy Secretary. Both are staunch fossil fuel advocates, but each has also worked with clean energy.

The oil industry boomed in North Dakota under Burgum’s tenure as governor, but electricity from wind more than doubled from 2015 to 2023, becoming North Dakota’s second-biggest electricity source, behind high-pollution coal.

Wright runs a natural gas fracking company and once drank fracking fluid — a cocktail of water, bleach and soap, to seemingly prove it wasn’t poisoning underground water sources. But he also sits on the board of an advanced nuclear energy company and has invested in a geothermal startup that is working to convert underground heat into electricity to power hundreds of thousands of homes.

Complicating the picture further is Elon Musk, CEO of America’s largest EV company, and one of Trump’s closest advisors, despite the president-elect’s apparent disdain for electric vehicles. But Musk’s influence on Trump’s energy policy is less certain, as he has been tasked with a new commission cutting government spending and agency jobs.

Trump’s energy policy will also be impacted by the fast-changing energy landscape.

Trump and his allies say they will open the nation’s oil spigots on full blast, but under the climate-focused tenure of President Joe Biden, US oil production has never been higher.

And even though Trump has vowed to kill Biden’s signature climate law, its generous clean energy tax credits are leading to new EV and solar factories being constructed, supercharging red state economies along the way. This could make it harder to convince GOP lawmakers to go along.

Another massive piece of the energy puzzle is electricity, which is in high demand as artificial intelligence, data centers and energy manufacturing facilities come online. Many of the biggest tech companies have vowed to use zero-carbon nuclear power.

All of this means the energy picture looks vastly different than it did under Trump’s first term.

“Everyone’s been viewing energy policy through the lens of the past couple of decades of: Republicans are (for) fossil fuels; Democrats are for clean energy and climate policy,” said Neil Chatterjee, who served as chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission under the first Trump administration. “I think we’re about to enter a new chapter.”

What Trump 2.0 could look like on energy

Just days after Trump won the 2024 election, his transition team began drawing up plans for his energy policy, and how to roll back major elements of Biden’s climate legacy.

The actions include withdrawing the US from the Paris climate agreement — something Trump did in his first term. The plans also include downsizing national monuments to increase drilling on public lands, and slashing government jobs and offices dedicated to cutting pollution in low-income communities, two sources familiar with the plans told CNN.

Trump’s team is also planning further cuts to Biden’s climate and energy regulations, including several major EPA rules cutting pollution from vehicles and power plants. The Trump transition team didn’t respond to specific questions on the incoming administration’s plans.

“When he takes office, President Trump will make America energy dominant again, protect our energy jobs, and bring down the cost of living for working families,” transition spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.

Oil and gas boomed on Biden’s watch, despite his promises on climate, but his administration worked to limit drilling on public lands compared to previous administrations. Trump’s picks look likely to undo this work.

“The steps taken by the Biden administration have been way beyond anything we’ve ever seen in the past — not issuing leases; then when they issue leases, they basically issue leases where there wasn’t much interest,” said Ron Ness, president of the North Dakota Petroleum Council, who has worked with Burgum. “What (Burgum) has seen is that these federal, duplicative burdens of regulations inherently impede the ability to produce energy.”

The incoming administration is also focused on spurring demand for fossil fuels. This includes relaxing regulations on gas-powered vehicles and restarting federal permits for massive liquefied natural gas export terminals, paused this year by Biden’s Energy Department. LNG exports are a way for the US oil and gas industry to sell more natural gas to Europe, as well as emerging markets in Asia and South America.

However, the LNG industry is urging Trump’s administration not to rush to immediately approve new terminals, taking its time to make sure any new permits can stand up in court.

“All of this comes back to legal durability of any permit that they issue,” said Charlie Riedl, executive director for the Center for LNG, a trade group. “That’s, I think, what industry is after. We would obviously like to see our permits uphold court challenges.”

The battle lines on clean energy are less clear

What’s less clear is what Trump’s picks will mean for clean energy. Biden’s clean energy law massively benefits Republican congressional districts around the country, and Republicans could be sacrificing billions of dollars of private investment and thousands of jobs if they vote to repeal it.

There are other big question marks beyond Biden’s climate law. Biden’s Interior Department, for instance, has permitted dozens of clean energy projects on federal lands and waters, including 11 approved offshore wind projects, which will be harder for Trump to claw back. But Trump’s administration could stop issuing future leases for offshore wind.

The nuclear industry especially is hopeful that there will be more investment in its zero-carbon energy under Trump. Nuclear has enjoyed bipartisan support, and it’s getting major boosts from big tech companies that have signed agreements to source much of their power from nuclear energy. Microsoft took the step of reviving Three Mile Island – the Pennsylvania plant that was the site of America’s only nuclear meltdown in 1979.

Nuclear has enjoyed billions of dollars in federal investments from the Biden administration and federal tax credits. The question is whether the Trump administration will continue to favor it – and fund it.

“The general expectation is we’re going to see reduced federal spending” under Trump, Alan Ahn, deputy director for nuclear at think tank Third Way’s climate and energy program, told CNN. “The fact you have the big tech companies, they’ve made these big commitments, they’re going to carry weight with any administration. We’re going to need continued and robust public investment to continue to push that forward.”

The scope of that investment remains to be seen — but the politics around nuclear and other forms of clean energy are not as clear-cut for Republicans as they used to be, Chatterjee said.

“On the political right, there’s going to be a recognition that we can’t possibly meet the surge in (electricity) demand with fossil fuels alone,” Chatterjee told CNN.

CNN’s Alayna Treene contributed reporting.

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