AAA projects nearly 80 million to travel this Thanksgiving, a record for the holiday

REDMOND, Ore. (KTVZ) – AAA projects 79.9 million Americans (23.6% of the population) will travel 50 miles or more from home for the Thanksgiving holiday, up 2.1% from 2023. This year is the busiest ever for Thanksgiving travel, exceeding pre-pandemic numbers, the organization said Monday.

About 1.1 million Oregonians will head over the river and through the woods for turkey and all the trimmings. The Thanksgiving holiday travel period is defined as Tuesday, November 26 through Monday, December 2.

(Here are some tips Redmond Airport provided about arriving two hours early and more.)

And here's the rest of AAA's Thanksgiving week travel forecast:

Car travel will set a new record this Thanksgiving, with nearly 72 million Americans hitting the road, an increase of nearly 2% compared to last year. Nearly 90% of travelers will drive to their destinations. In Oregon, roughly 984,000 travelers will drive.

Air travel is also expected to set a new record, soaring to 5.8 million travelers flying over the holiday weekend. This is the highest number of air travelers since 2005. Approximately 114,000 Oregonians will travel by air. In all, about 7.3% of Thanksgiving travelers will fly to their holiday destinations.

Americans are also heading to their Thanksgiving destination by other modes of travel including bus, train or cruise ship. These modes are up almost 9% over 2023.

Find details below on all of the modes of travel.

“Thanksgiving is the busiest holiday for travel and this year will set new travel records with more people than ever driving, flying and cruising over the holiday. Americans are eager to carve out time to see family and friends and gobble the big feast,” says Marie Dodds, public affairs director for AAA Oregon/Idaho. “Wherever you go, roads and airports will be stuffed so expect lots of company.”

“We’ve seen strong demand for travel all year, and now AAA expects record numbers of travelers to drive, fly and cruise this Thanksgiving. Plan ahead for your trip. Use your AAA membership to find discounts and rewards, work with a travel agent, and consider travel insurance as well as medical travel insurance to protect your investment. Weather is always the wild card so be prepared for the possibility of winter storms.” says Doreen Loofburrow, senior vice president of travel for AAA Oregon/Idaho.

The record Thanksgiving travel is driven by economic trends including robust growth in person income and gradual decline of inflation. Consumer spending is expected to increase in Q4 compared to last year.

Car travel to set new record

AAA projects 89.8% of travelers (71.7 million Americans) will drive to their Thanksgiving destination. This is a 1.95% increase over 2023. This year’s total also surpasses pre-pandemic numbers when 70.6 million people drove to their Thanksgiving destinations in 2019.

In Oregon, roughly 984,000 travelers will drive.

Air travel also breaks records; Air fares cost more for U.S. travel and less for international flights

Thanksgiving air travel will soar to 5.8 million travelers flying over the holiday weekend. This is up 2.1% compared to last year and a nearly 11% increase over 2019.  In all, about 7.3% of Thanksgiving travelers will fly to their holiday destinations.

Approximately 114,000 Oregonians will travel by air.

According to AAA booking data, air travelers are paying 3% more for domestic Thanksgiving flights this year, while the number of flight bookings is similar to last year. International flight bookings are up 23% compared to last Thanksgiving, in part because the cost to fly internationally is down 5%. Find more on the costs of travel below.

Those who fly should expect full flights. Any weather or mechanical issues can make it difficult for airlines to catch up, as alternate flights are also full.

Advice for Air Travelers

• Book the first flight of the day or early morning flights if you can. They are less likely to be cancelled or delayed.
• Try not to book tight connecting flights – you’ll want enough time to change flights in case your originating flight is late.
• If possible, avoid airports for connecting flights where winter weather can lead to delays, including Chicago O’Hare, Newark Liberty, LaGuardia, Denver, and JFK.
• If you really need to be at your destination on a certain day, book flights a day or two early so that you have a buffer.
• Download the airline’s app on your phone and set it up for push notifications so that you’ll be notified about departure and arrival information as well as any flight changes, delays or cancellations. FlightAware and other sites let you track your incoming flight so you can find other options if that flight is late or cancelled.
• Get to the airport early – two hours before domestic flights and three hours before international flights. The increase in travelers can make for longer than usual wait times to get through security. If you’re flying out at PDX, arrive early if you haven’t been in the new terminal which opened in September after four years of construction. You may need extra time to navigate the ticket counters and security lines.
• If you need to park at the airport, book a parking spot in advance or at least check on availability before you go. Many airports including Portland International airport let you check current availability https://www.flypdx.com/Parking.  Better yet, take transit, use a ride sharing service, or get a ride from a friend to the airport.
• Carry your bags on your flight instead of checking them. If you do need to check bags, bring medications, a change of clothes, comfortable shoes, and any other necessary items in your carry on bag. Make sure your bags have name tags, and also put your name and contact info inside each bag. Consider using an Apple AirTag, Samsung Galaxy SmartTag, or another tracker if you do check your bags.
• Plan ahead for meals and snacks. Full airports can mean long lines and wait times at restaurants. Bring a refillable water bottle and snacks. Many airlines allow you to pre-order food up to 24 hours before your flight. The TSA allows solid foods through screening but liquids or gels (such as yogurt) must comply with the 3-1-1 liquids rule.
• Consider signing up for TSA PreCheck, Global Entry and/or CLEAR to expedite the security screening process. Do make sure the airports you use offer CLEAR as it’s not available at all airports.

Travel by bus, train and cruise also rises

Travel by other modes, including buses, trains, and cruises, will rise to nearly 2.3 million, an increase of nearly 9% from 2023 and an 18% jump over 2019. Roughly 29,000 Oregonians will travel by these modes this year.

“Demand for cruises is red-hot this year. AAA bookings show that domestic and international cruise bookings are up 20% compared to last Thanksgiving. Cruises took a major hit during the pandemic but are now more popular than ever. Cruising appeals to many travelers because there’s a wide variety of ships, amenities, and price points, it’s family friendly, there’s something for all ages, and you get to visit multiple destinations but only have to unpack once,” says Loofburrow.

Gas Prices lower than last year

Drivers are thankful for savings at the pumps this year.

“Gas prices have been steadily falling for several weeks and that trend should continue over the Thanksgiving holiday. It’s always possible that gas prices could tick up in areas that are popular with tourists, but most drivers will find falling gas prices through Thanksgiving, barring unforeseen events,” says Dodds.

The current (as of Nov. 18) national average for regular unleaded is $3.07 and the Oregon average is $3.54. These prices are at or near the year-to-date lows for 2024 and are 20 to 60 cents a gallon less than a year ago, depending on the market.

Visit the AAA Gas Prices website for current gas prices.

Best and worst times to drive; peak traffic expected Tuesday, Wednesday, Sunday and Monday

Drivers can expect the most congestion on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons before Thanksgiving and again on Sunday and Monday afternoons as travelers return home. INRIX, in collaboration with AAA, says metro areas across the U.S. could see more than double the delays versus typical drive times, and larger urban areas could experience up to three times the normal delays. The best time to hit the road is Thanksgiving Day when traffic is usually lightest, as well as in the mornings on other days.

“With a record number of travelers taking a holiday road trip this Thanksgiving, drivers should avoid the busiest times if at all possible and realize that roads will be busy throughout the holiday weekend. Expect that it will take more time than usual to get to your destination,” says Dodds.

AAA also recommends that travelers use traffic apps, local Department of Transportation notifications, and 511 services to get real-time updates.

Top Thanksgiving destinations

These are the trending destinations for domestic, international, and regional travel for members of AAA Oregon/Idaho based on bookings by our AAA travel agents and at AAA.com. 

Theme parks, beaches and cruise ports are among the most popular spots. Fort Lauderdale is a busy departure spot for cruises. Many European river cruises depart out of Basel, Switzerland, while many South Pacific cruises depart from Sydney, Australia.

Holiday travel costs

This holiday season, AAA finds that travelers are generally paying less for domestic trips compared to last year and more for international vacations. But travelers are paying more in some categories.

“Thanksgiving can often be a cost-effective holiday for many travelers, because food, lodging and activities are usually family-driven which can help offset travel expenses,” says Dodds.

Costs of overall Thanksgiving travel (average of all categories)

• Domestic Thanksgiving vacation is 12% cheaper this year with an average cost of $815.
• International Thanksgiving vacation is 7% more expensive this year with an average cost $2,015.

Here’s a breakdown of average booking prices, according to AAA data.

Flights

• The average price for a domestic roundtrip flight is $700, up 3% from 2023.
• The average price for an international roundtrip flight is $1,190, down 5% from last year.

Hotels

• The average price for a domestic hotel stay is $610, up 28% from 2023.
• The average price for an international hotel stay is $660, up 13% from last year.

Rental cars

• The average price for a domestic rental car is $480, down 2% from 2023.
• The average price for an international rental car is $420, down 13% from last year.
• AAA partner Hertz says the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and the Monday and Tuesday after will be the busiest rental days
• Hertz says the top rental cities are Atlanta, Orlando, Oahu, Las Vegas, LA, and Phoenix.
• See AAA’s rental cars do’s and don’ts for advice.

CRUISES

• The average price for a domestic cruise is $1,170, down 28% compared to 2023.
• The average price for an international cruise is $2,690, down 4% from last year.

TOURS

• The average price for a domestic tour is $660, down 17% compared to 2023.
• The average price for an international tour is $1,440, up 7% from last year.

What to know before you go – AAA tips for travelers

• Book your flights, lodging, camping, rental car and activities in advance. The sweet spot for purchasing holiday travel is usually about 60 days out. While deals may be available to those who wait until the last minute to book, high demand means availability can be greatly reduced.
• Take all necessary travel documentation, including your driver’s license, Real ID and/or passport as well as health insurance cards.
• Consider working with a travel agent. They can help you plan the trip that meets your needs and comfort level this holiday season, provide the best value for your vacation dollars, explore travel insurance options, assist with any last-minute changes to travel plans, and act as an advocate if the unexpected happens.
• Travel and medical insurance. AAA strongly recommends travel insurance to cover unexpected delays or trip interruptions. Travel insurance provides a safety net should something unexpected happen ahead of or during your trip. Travel insurance can cover expenses associated with flight cancellations, travel delays, lost luggage, and trip cancellation. Medical travel insurance can provide coverage for illness and injuries and that may not be included in your regular health insurance plan. Travel agents can also advise on what travel insurance policy makes the most sense for your trip.
• Get your car road-trip ready. Breakdowns are always a hassle, and you don’t want to be stranded during the Thanksgiving weekend. Find a trusted mechanic nearby at AAA.com/repair. Also be sure that your vehicle is ready for winter driving conditions. Get tips and advice, including what to put in your emergency kit, at AAA.com/winterprep  

AAA to the rescue

Before you head out, be sure your vehicle is ready for the trip to avoid a breakdown along the way. AAA expects to rescue more than 570,000 Americans including 9,100 Oregonians at the roadside this Thanksgiving. Dead batteries, flat tires and lockouts are the top three issues.

AAA makes it easy to request assistance – by phone (800-222-HELP) or the AAA app – and members can track the service technician’s progress as they make their way to your vehicle.

Before any long trip, AAA suggests getting an inspection to check key components such as the battery, fuel system, tires, brakes and fluid levels. Have your vehicle inspected by a trusted repair shop, such as one of the 7,000 AAA Approved Auto Repair facilities across North America.

Be prepared for emergencies with a mobile phone and car charger, and well-stocked emergency kit including a flashlight with extra batteries, first-aid kit, a basic toolkit, jackets and blankets, and drinking water and snacks for all passengers and pets. Share your itinerary with family or friends so that authorities know where to start looking for you if you don’t reach your destination.

Get tips and advice on how to plan for winter driving conditions at AAA.com/winterprep.

Holiday travel planning

“If you’re planning to travel for Christmas, Hanukkah or New Year’s, make your plans now if you haven’t done so already. Book your flights, accommodations, rental cars and activities as soon as possible. While last-minute deals may be available if you’re flexible on destinations and travel dates, availability will be limited. A travel agent can help you plan your trip and get the most out of your travel dollars,” says Loofburrow.

Forecast methodology

In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices, including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.

Historical travel volume estimates come from DK SHIFFLET’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/Monitor^SM. The PERFORMANCE/Monitor^SM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. DK SHIFFLET contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior, all after the trips have been taken.

The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of October 7, 2024.

Because AAA forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.

About AAA

Started in 1902 by automotive enthusiasts who wanted to chart a path for better roads in America and advocate for safe mobility, AAA has transformed into one of North America’s largest membership organizations. Today, AAA delivers exceptional roadside assistance, helps travelers plan their dream vacations and adventures, offers exclusive member discounts and benefits, and provides trusted financial and insurance services – all to enhance the life journey of our 65+ million members across North America, including nearly 58 million in the United States. To learn more about all AAA offers or become a member, visit AAA.com.

Find current fuel prices at GasPrices.AAA.com.