Global oil price stuck in triple digits. Goldman Sachs says it may stay there for years
A flare stack burns at the PCK Schwedt oil refinery beyond a sign for fuel prices at a gas station in Schwedt
Hong Kong (CNN) — Oil prices dipped Friday but remained well above $100, with energy infrastructure in the Middle East damaged and the vital Strait of Hormuz still largely shut.
Goldman Sachs even suggested that higher prices could last all the way through 2027.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, ticked down 0.1% to $108.5 a barrel, having risen to $110 earlier in the day. US crude was broadly flat at $95.6.
“The persistence of several prior large supply shocks underscores the risk that oil prices may stay above $100 for longer in risk scenarios with lengthier disruptions and large persistent supply losses,” Goldman analysts wrote in a note Thursday.
US and Brent crude have diverged slightly this week after the Trump administration worked to bring some more US production online. The United States is the largest oil producer in the world, insulating the country from some — but not all — of the recent disruption from the Iran war, Deutsche Bank analysts noted Friday.
The Brent price bobbed up and down Friday after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country would heed President Donald Trump’s call not to repeat attacks on key Iranian energy sites. The Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars field triggered the latter’s retaliation against Qatar’s Ras Laffan, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas facility, sending oil prices surging earlier this week.
Trump also sought to reassure Americans facing the highest gasoline prices in almost two and a half years, saying “it’s going to be over with pretty soon.” He added that, before Israel and the United States launched their war against Iran, he had thought the prices would be “much worse.”
US gas prices rose another 3 cents a gallon overnight to $3.91, on average, Friday, according to AAA. That’s the highest average price for a gallon of regular gas since October 13, 2022.
No end in sight
Three weeks in, the conflict shows no sign of abating. Middle Eastern countries reported intercepting drones and missiles as dawn broke Friday.
The Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman — has been effectively closed for 19 days, choking off 20% of the world’s oil supply.
A senior Iranian security source told CNN Thursday that the strait “will not return to pre-war conditions,” reiterating earlier threats that the waterway would be disrupted if Iran came under attack.
With the strait nearly blocked for almost three weeks, Goldman Sachs expects that oil prices will likely trend higher. It warned that the Brent benchmark could exceed its all-time high, set in 2008, of around $147 per barrel, if supply disruptions lengthened.
In the worst-case scenario, the bank estimated that Brent prices would be around $111 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2027 if oil supply through the strait remained very low for over two months and production stayed at 2 million barrels per day after reopening.
The more favorable case, according to Goldman Sachs, comes with a gradual recovery in oil flows through the strait from April, easing the Brent price to the $70s by the fourth quarter of 2026.
Already, QatarEnergy, the state-owned operator of Ras Laffan, said the missile attacks reduced the country’s export capacity of liquefied natural gas by 17% and that it could take up to five years to repair, impacting supply to markets in Europe and Asia.
Under pressure to lower prices
To combat the higher gasoline prices, the Trump administration is considering a host of options.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested lifting sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea in a bid to lower oil prices – which might mean padding the war chest of a US enemy.
But the White House has so far ruled out imposing a ban on crude oil and gas exports as a possible way to ease surging energy prices, an administration official told CNN.
As part of a historic emergency oil release agreed by 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency earlier this month, the United States has committed to releasing more than 172 million barrels of crude from its reserves.
Trump has also publicly called for support from US allies to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The United Kingdom has sent a small deployment of military planners to work with the United States to come up with a “viable collective plan,” a UK defense official said. Other US partners, however, have said they are unlikely to send military assets into the strait amid active hostilities.
The-CNN-Wire
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CNN’s Frederik Pleitgen, Mohammed Tawfeeq, Jennifer Hansler, Olesya Dmitracova and David Goldman contributed to this report.
