Deschutes again Oregon’s growth pace-setter

The number of people who call Central Oregon home is growing — no news to just about anyone these days. But new annual estimates out Tuesday from Portland State University show which areas are growing the fastest.

And once again, Deschutes County is in a familiar spot from past years: leader of the 36-county pack, with a July 1 tally of 166,400 residents, a gain of 3,875, or 2.4 percent from a year earlier.

In fact, the latest Deschutes growth rate is more than twice as fast as Oregon as a whole, which PSU estimates gained 43,545 residents in 2013-14 for a 3.96 million tally, up 1.1 percent.

This year, Deschutes is followed by Hood River County’s 1.9 percent growth, adding 435 residents but still below 24,000 total. The rest of the top five: Washington County, with a 1.7 percent population rise, Gilliam County, whose 30 new residents put them in fourth place, at 1.5 percent, and Clackamas County, up 1.4 percent, or 5,445 more residents.

On the High Desert, PSU’s Population Research Center said Crook County added an estimated 90 residents, for a 0.4 percent annual growth rate – small, but double the rate of a year ago. Jefferson County added 165 residents, for a total of 22,205, a 0.7 percent growth that also is up from last year’s 0.5

As for Central Oregon cities, Bend added 1,705 residents in the year ended July 1, narrowly missing the 80,000 mark (at 79,985), according to the new estimates, a roughly 2.2 percent increase. But still relatively small Sisters was the fastest-growing city in the region, adding 75 residents for a total of 2,190, up nearly 3.6 percent

On the other hand, La Pine, at 1,670 residents, and Redmond, with 26,590 people, had one thing in common – the preliminary estimates show no growth or decline – no population change from last year, usually meaning PSU reported receiving no new data to base its number-crunching on.

PSU’s new Madras population estimate adds just five residents, to 6,260, up .07 percent, while Culver is up 10 residents to 1,380, a .72 percent increase.

Bend’s growth rate actually doubled from the previous year, noted Damian Syrnyk, city senior planner, who formerly worked as a Deschutes County planner and, before that, at the PSU Population Research Center.

“Bend’s actual population growth of 1,705 was more than double the growth between 2012 and 2013,” he wrote in an e-mail. “Between 2012-2013, Bend added 825 people. Between 2013 and 2014, Bend’s population grew by 1,705.” The latter figure “represents 44 percent of the county’s population growth” in the latest year, he added.

This year, PSU researchers say the growth in Oregonians is primarily due to people moving to the state.

Population growth consists of two factors: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net migration (movers-in minus movers-out). From 2013 to 2014, PSU says Oregon’s population growth was attributed more to net migration (74%) than to natural increase (26%).

Generally, net in-migration has either boosted population growth rates around the state or has stabilized population losses. In counties where a natural decrease is occurring, net in-migration has offset overall population decreases.

“As the economy continues to improve, net migration in Oregon increases,” said Risa Proehl, PRC program manager. “This is not a new phenomenon.”

The counties that experienced the largest gains in population from 2013 to 2014 have the largest populations. As in the previous several years, Washington and Multnomah counties added the largest number of people — adding around 9,500 and 9,200 residents, respectively.

Cities accounted for 60 percent of Oregon’s population increase, a higher percentage than in 2013. Portland shows the greatest increase, with 9,390 more residents. The cities of Bend, Salem, Beaverton, Eugene, and Corvallis each added over 1,000 residents over the past year.

PRC produces annual population estimates for Oregon, and its counties and incorporated cities using the most recent available data.

Estimates are based on changes in the number of housing units, persons residing in group quarter facilities, births and deaths, students enrolled in public school, persons in the labor force, Medicare enrollees, state and federal tax exemptions, Oregon driver license holders, and other administrative data.

Statewide housing and group quarters’ population data are collected from annual questionnaires sent directly to Oregon’s cities and counties. If PSU does not receive updated annual data from a city, its population estimate remains the same as the previous year — the likely factor. The annual population estimates are used for revenue distribution to local governments and in program administration.

Census Bureau estimates, which come out at different times, use other factors in their estimates, and and can very a little — or a lot — from the PSU figures.

The final July 1 , 2014 population estimates will be certified by December 15 , after cities and counties have a chance to review the figures and challenge any they feel are incorrect.

The preliminary population estimates can be found on PRC’s Web site at: http://www.pdx.edu/prc/population-reports-estimates .