Bend-Redmond metro area 8th-fastest growing in U.S.

The Bend-Redmond Metropolitan Area – defined as all of Deschutes County – had Oregon’s fastest growth rate last year, at 2.9 percent, and was No. 8 among nearly 400 metro areas in the nation, the U.S. Census Bureau reported Wednesday night.

In its new estimates, the Bend-Redmond metro area added 4,870 people in the year ended last July 1, for a total of 175.268 residents, which also was enough for the area to rank at No. 95 in the nation for the numerical increase.

Many of the people we talked to around town shared the same mixed feelings about the growth and what it brings.

“I think it’s great that Bend is growing. I think that’s a good thing, but I think our infrastructure is probably not set up for the growth that we have at this point,” said Bend resident Adrian Krueger.

Neighboring Crook County’s growth rate was No. 2 for the same period, at 2.8 percent, adding 591 residents to total 21,630, according to the new Census Bureau estimates. Jefferson County grew by 383 residents, to 22,666, a rise of 1.7 percent for the year, sixth-fastest among Oregon’s 36 counties.

These estimates, which are used for things such as divvying up federal funds, are definitely higher than what the Portland State University Population Research Center (which plays a similar role in state funds distribution) estimated late last year for the same July 1, 2015 estimates.

In Deschutes County’s case, while PSU did estimate similar growth of 4,340 residents, again No. 1 for the state at 2.6 percent, it only estimated the mid-2015 county population at 170,740.

Bend Senior Planner Damian Syrnyk said the 2.6 percent (4,528 people) difference between the Census Bureau and PSU estimates for Deschutes County was “interesting,” but “still probably within any (margin of) error.”

Syrnyk, a former Deschutes County planner, also worked for PSU’s population research entity before that. He noted their estimates are based on the number of births and deaths, as well as in- and out-migration, to estimate population changes. The Census Bureau looks at that data and also at changes in federal administrative records, such as IRS and Medicare data.

But PSU estimated Crook County, for example, grew by only 305 residents in that same one-year period – about half the number the Census Bureau figured. Still, at a state level, both entities said Oregon topped 4 million residents last year, up about 1.5 percent, according to the Census Bureau.

But the Bend metro area actually dropped one place in the nation’s fastest-growth rankings from a year ago, when it was No. 7 in the U.S., with a slightly slower growth rate of 2.7 percent.

Being in a period of rapid growth is nothing new for Bend or Deschutes County. But for some perspective, in 2000-01, the county grew nearly twice as fast as it did last year — 5.7 percent — and that only ranked it 64th among U.S. metro areas as the sizzling 2000s began.

The nationwide economic downturn of recent years slowed the growth rate in the area, which Synryk said means “the city has been able to catch up on advance planning for the UGB (urban growth boundary) and infrastructure — water, sewer and transportation.”

Despite the issues, Syrnyk said the city has been making progress on keeping up with demand.

“Our population is still growing,” he said. “It’s not outgrowing our housing supply, or our infrastructure or our ability to do things. We’ve gotten ahead on some of our infrastructure, for example some of our water, sewer system. We do have street maintenance we’re trying to play catch up on.”

Most of the people we spoke with didn’t agree with that picture of where things stand in Bend.

“Oh, I can’t imagine they think they’re keeping up with this,” said former resident Jason Ransom. “I’m not in the road design and management area, but I can’t imagine they actually think they’re keeping up with it.”

And then there’s the visitor’s perspective.

“From a traveler’s perspective, it’s very good, — good restaurants, good brew pubs, nice places to stay,” said visitor Brent Danner.

New employment figures out this week show Bend also in the top five metro areas in the country in job growth over the past year.

Syrnyk, heavily involved in the update of the city’s UGB, said once that project is finished, “we’ll be a little ahead in having additional land for housing and jobs added to the UGB, with plans for water, sewer and transportation already in place. We’ll be in a much better position than where we were 10 years ago during the real estate boom.”