C. Oregon workforce participation rebounds a bit
Central Oregon’s labor force participation rate rebounded a bit last year, but long-term factors are expected to send it falling once again, much as the state’s has for several years, the Oregon Employment Department reported Wednesday.
The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is defined as the labor force divided by the civilian non-institutionalized population (CNP), Karla Castillo of the state agency wrote.
The labor force includes employed and unemployed individuals, and the CNP includes everyone 16 years and older who is not active duty in the Armed Forces, or residing in prisons or homes for the aged. The LFPR is the portion of the population 16 years and older that contributes to the labor supply.
In 2015, the Oregon LFPR of 61.1 percent hit its lowest level since the 1970s. There are three main reasons that explain the declining rates: aging population, lower share of the younger population in the labor force, and the consequences of the Great Recession. The Oregon LFPR is projected to continue falling through 2024 with a projected rate at that time of 59.4 percent.
Central Oregon’s LFPR has also decreased over the last 15 years from 67.4 percent in 2000 to 58.6 percent in 2015. Crook County saw the largest drop, followed by Deschutes and Jefferson. All three counties had a greater decline in the LFPR than the state.
Though the decrease in the region was much more dramatic, in 2014 and 2015 the participation rate ticked up slightly. Some of the factors that contribute to this increase are slower population growth in 2015, and a much stronger economic recoveryresulting in faster employment growth.
Even though the LFPR in Central Oregon moved upward in the last three years as the economy strengthened, long-term forces are expected to push the rate down as baby boomers continue to exit the labor force.
For more on Oregon’s labor force participation rate, see “Oregon’s Falling Labor Force Participation: A Story of Baby Boomers, Youth, and the Great Recession.”
