Projection: Health care to lead Oregon job growth in decade

Oregon’s total employment will grow by 260,200 jobs between 2014 and 2024, according to newly released projections from the state Employment Department. The 14 percent increase in employment includes private-sector gains of 233,300 jobs, growth of 11,400 jobs in government, and an additional 15,500 self-employed Oregonians.

In addition to job gains from economic growth, another 440,100 job openings will be created by 2024 to replace retiring workers and others leaving occupations. Together, the number of job openings due to economic growth and replacements will total 700,300.

Industry Projections
All private industries are expected to add jobs by 2024. Health care and social assistance should contribute the most new jobs (46,300), along with professional and business services (45,700). Professional and business services includes legal and architectural services, computer systems design, temporary employment agencies, corporate offices, and a variety of other businesses.

Strong demand, low inventory, and a growing population in Oregon should contribute to strong construction growth (22%), the fastest of any broad sector over the 10-year period. Projections also show strong and steady job growth in health care (22%). This reflects a continuation of the industry’s long-term trend, driven by both the growth and aging of the population.

State government (3%) and local government (5%) are expected to be the slowest-growing industries in Oregon. Federal government (-4%) is the only major sector expected to shed jobs over the decade. Among private industries, information — which includes newspaper, directory, and book publishers — will grow the slowest (6%).

Occupational Projections
At the broad occupation group level, construction (21%) and health care (19%) top the list for fastest growing by 2024. Service occupations (which include protective services, building and grounds cleaning, personal appearance workers, funerals service workers and more), and professional and related (computer occupations, engineers, drafters, scientists, education, and more) rank first in most job openings.

Service occupations made up 18 percent of the jobs in 2014, and are projected to comprise 22 percent of the openings over the decade. Office and administrative support shifted in the opposite direction, making up 15 percent of the jobs in 2014 but only 11 percent of the total openings over the 2014 to 2024 period.

Occupations expected to have the most job openings include retail salespersons, waiters and waitresses, cashiers, combined food preparation and service workers, and registered nurses. In terms of fastest growing, half of the top 20 fastest growing occupations are in the health care field.

Six out of 10 total job openings (440,100) are expected to be due to the need to replace workers who retire or otherwise leave their occupation, with the remaining due to new or expanding businesses.

One-third of job openings typically require education beyond high school for entry into the occupation. More than half (54%) of the projected job openings will require some sort of education beyond high school in order for candidates to be more competitive in the hiring process. A bachelor’s degree or higher will be needed for about 28 percent of the openings at the competitive level.

The top five occupations in terms of projected openings with high school or less as the typical entry-level education are sales or service occupations. Those with postsecondary certificates or an associate’s degree as the typical entry-level education include health care occupations, truck drivers, automotive technicians, and computer users support specialists. In the bachelor’s or higher category, the top five are more varied.

Regional Projections
Central Oregon and the Portland area will record the fastest employment growth by 2024. The Central Oregon region made up of Deschutes, Crook, and Jefferson counties expects employment gains of 16 percent, with the fastest growth in construction, education, and health care. The Portland tri-county area consisting of Multnomah, Washington, and Clackamas counties anticipates 15 percent job growth, led by software publishing, professional and technical services, corporate offices, and construction. All other areas are projected to grow at a slower pace than Oregon statewide.

Additional Information
Every two years, the Oregon Employment Department updates long-term industry and occupational projections to account for changes in the economy. The 2014-2024 statewide projections cover 100 industries and 709 occupations. All employment projections are available at QualityInfo.org in the Employment Projections box on the Publications page.