Runaway space station heads toward Earth
Experts predict a rogue Chinese space station will come crashing toward Earth within a matter of days, and reports show Oregon could be in its path (along with much of the rest of the planet).
The space station was launched in 2011, and was supposed to end its career by being guided into a fiery descent over the Pacific Ocean. But in early 2016, it’s suspected, China lost communication, as well as control, of the lab. Experts now predict the roughly bus-sized vessel will enter Earth’s atmosphere sometime between now and April 2.
Southern Oregon is within the path experts say it may fall. But the “possible impact zone” covers nearly two-thirds of the Earth’s surface.
Bob Grossfeld, manager of the Oregon Observatory at Sunriver, said Wednesday we could see the re-entry, but planning to see the sky show won’t be easy.
“That’s the tricky part, because timing is really difficult. And they’re getting narrower and narrower on their predictions, but there’s no real accurate way of saying when it will hit,” Grossfeld said. “Once it hits the upper part of the atmosphere, it will start breaking apart, and we should be able to see it, if we’re out looking at the right time.”
Grossfeld said most of the vessel will burn up in the atmosphere, and there’s very little chance of any of it hitting the ground. There’s even less chance of it hitting a person — just one in a trillion, according to the nonprofit Aerospace Corporation.
Grossfeld said if it does enter the atmosphere in our line of sight and conditions are good, we will be able to see it with the naked eye, but that’s not guaranteed.
“It could fall through during daylight hours, and we might be able to see it, but more likely only in the evening. We’ll have more chance visually to see it then than in the daytime. Daytime is a lot tougher,” he said.
If conditions are right, it could put on a good show. “I hate using the term ‘shooting star,’ because it’s just debris burning up on the atmosphere, but more like a fireball. What will be interesting to see is if it comes in a line that’s not as much of an angle, (in which case) we’ll see more of a shadow. It will burn bright enough to cast a shadow,” he said.
Grossfeld said this event is unusual because it’s a space station, but satellites and rocket debris frequently burn up in the atmosphere. Experts agree that knowing when and where the vessel will re-enter is impossible right now, but predictions are getting narrower and narrower as it gets closer. As of Wednesday, they’re favoring April 1 as the big day.
You can track the space station at the websites below:
