Deschutes jobless rate falls to record-low 3.8 percent

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates dropped significantly across Central Oregon in May, with Deschutes County reaching a new record-low rate of 3.8 percent, the state Employment Department reported Tuesday.

“Much of the decline in unemployment can be attributed to strong hiring across the region, with the majority of that growth concentrated in Deschutes County. Job growth in our rural counties continues to be significantly slower,” Regional Economist Damon Runberg said in his monthly report.

So just how low can the jobless rate go?

“I think we are approaching the bottom,” Runberg told NewsChannel 21.

“It is darn impressive that Deschutes County broke the 4 percent threshold, considering the relatively large share of our employment in seasonal industries,” he said.

“Traditionally, we have a higher natural rate of unemployment than both the nation and state,” the economist said.

“Hiring is beginning to slow, which likely means that the unemployment rate will stop ‘improving.'” he said in an email. “I put “improving” in quotes, since we are at such a low rate of unemployment that it can do more harm than good. We’ve seen strong wage growth, but if the wage pressure kicks up much more, than we may start seeing more local inflation.”

Here’s the rest of Runberg’s monthly report:

Crook County: The unemployment rate dropped to 5.5 percent in May from 5.8 percent in April, a statistically significant decline. The rate remains down from this time last year when it was 6.1 percent.

Total nonfarm employment rose by 120 jobs in May, typical hiring for this time of year.

Over the past year, Crook County’s employment base expanded by a modest 1.2 percent (+70 jobs). Hiring was largely concentrated in private-sector businesses, with notable gains in construction, wholesale trade, information, and leisure and hospitality. Private sector losses were isolated to professional and business services, which only shed around 20 jobs over the past year.

Deschutes County (Bend-Redmond MSA): The unemployment rate dipped to a new historical low of 3.8 percent in May. The rate was 4.2 percent in April and 4.0 percent this time last year. The unemployment rate is largely unchanged over the past year, despite the statistically significant decline in the rate last month

Deschutes County added 1,270 jobs in May, slightly stronger hiring than typically expected this time of year. As expected, most of the jobs added in the past month were concentrated in seasonal industries, such as leisure and hospitality and construction.

Employment growth over the past year continues to be strong, with the county adding 3,170 jobs since May 2017 (+3.9%). There are no signs of an impending recession, as every major private industry sector added jobs in the past 12 months.

Housing-related industries, such as construction and financial activities, continue to grow fast. Other fast-growing industries include leisure and hospitality and professional and business services. Growth in health care has been largely inflated by a change in home health care workers being counted in private health care. Until 2018, these workers were counted in state government.

Jefferson County: The unemployment rate dropped to 5.2 percent in May from 5.5 percent in April. The rate remains little changed from May 2017 when it was 5.4 percent.

Jefferson County added 130 jobs this May, which was about half as many as would typically be expected this time of year.

Total nonfarm employment is largely unchanged over the past year. Industry trends are mixed with strong job growth in manufacturing (+70 jobs), construction (+30), and leisure and hospitality (+20).

There were minor losses in the trades, in particular, retail trade and professional and business services. Additionally, there were notable losses from local government agencies (-90 jobs) with most of those losses from Indian tribal government.

Growth in health care has largely been inflated by home health care workers being reported in private health care beginning in 2018. Previously, these workers were counted in state government.

Next Press Releases

The Oregon Employment Department plans to release the June county and metropolitan area unemployment rates on Tuesday, July 24 th and the statewide unemployment rate and employment survey data on Tuesday, July 17 th .