C.O. job growth expected to lead state over next decade

Central Oregon is projected to add jobs at a faster pace than any other part of the state over the next 10 years, an Oregon Employment Department economist said Tuesday.

“This is not an uncommon position for Central Oregon to be in, as the region was expected to be the fastest growing in the previous iteration of these employment projections,” Regional Economist Damon Runberg said in his report.

“Regional job growth is being fueled by a growing population; an aging population; and the continuing transformation of the economy from a rural job base to a more urban composition,” he said.

The report continues below:

The three-county region (Crook, Deschutes, and Jefferson) is expected to add nearly 15,000 jobs by 2027, a growth rate of 15 percent. Central Oregon along with the Portland-metro area (+13%) are the only regions expected to grow faster than the statewide pace of 12 percent.

Although the region is expected to see nearly 15,000 new jobs added over the next 10 years, the number of job openings is expected to be far larger in order to replace retiring workers and those moving to new occupations. It is expected that for every job opening due to economic growth there will be 8 job openings due to workers leaving the occupation for reasons, such as retirements, leaving the labor force, or moving to a new occupation. Together this growth and replacements adds up to nearly 137,000 job openings by 2027.

Unlike at the statewide level, where health care is expected to be the fastest growing sector, it is projected that construction will be Central Oregon’s fastest growing industry sector, expanding by 35 percent by 2027 (+2,350 jobs). Construction growth is largely a reflection of continued demand for housing due to rapid population growth, however commercial components of the industry are also expected to see fast job growth.

The industry expected to add the most jobs is health care and social assistance (+2,540). There will be continued demand for health practitioners, caregivers, and other health-related occupations as the aging baby boomer population increases its use of health services.

Another industry expected to see rapid growth is professional and business services (+1,820 jobs). This follows several years of strong growth in the professional sector in the most recent economic expansion.

No major industry sector is expected to lose jobs over the next 10 years however a handful of sub-sectors, including wood product manufacturing (-50 jobs); mining and logging (-10 jobs), and federal government (-20 jobs) are expected to see modest losses over the forecast period. Although the wood product sector is expected to lose jobs, the broad manufacturing sector is actually expected to see healthy growth expanding by 13 percent (+950 jobs).

Government employment is expected to rise by a modest 3 percent (+440 jobs). Local government employment, in particular, local education is expected to grow at a faster pace (+6%). These gains are largely a reflection of increased demand for public services due to a larger population and the continued build out of the Oregon State University Cascades campus.

O ccupational growth is expected to follow many of the industry trends, with the following occupational groups expected to see growth in excess of 20 percent by 2027: construction and extraction occupations (+32.1%); computer and mathematical occupations (+23.3%); architecture and engineering occupations (+23%); and business and financial operations occupations (+21%).

Despite fast growth in these professional occupational groups, openings are expected to be dominated by food preparation and serving, office support, retail sales, construction, and service occupations. The growth in job openings in these occupational groups is due to higher rates of turnover.

It is important to remember that Central Oregon’s economy is unlikely to perfectly mimic these employment projections over the next 10 years. These projections will be updated in two years as more information becomes available.

Complete tables of the employment projections can be found on Qualityinfo.org . Projections for all regions of Oregon can be found under the Employment Projections section.

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Here’s the state Employment Department report on the statewide projections:

Continued job growth and record low unemployment are making it difficult for Oregon businesses to fill current vacancies, and Oregon’s economy is expected to create 263,000 total job openings each year through 2027. These are the findings of two new reports released by the Oregon Employment Department. One report is based on a survey of businesses that is designed to measure Oregon’s current workforce gaps. The other is based on economic trends and forecasts, and is designed to predict Oregon’s future workforce needs.

Oregon’s Current Workforce Gaps

Oregon businesses had 60,700 job vacancies at any one time during 2017. According to businesses, 38,700 (64%) of these vacancies were difficult to fill. This was the largest number of vacancies and share of difficult-to-fill vacancies since the job vacancy survey began in 2013.

A lack of applicants was the most common challenge filling vacancies. Nearly one out of every three (30%) difficult-to-fill job vacancies had an insufficient number of applicants or no applicants at all. Other common reasons given were a lack of qualified candidates (17%), unfavorable working conditions (14%), a lack of soft skills (11%), a lack of work experience (9%), low wages (6%), or other reasons (13%).

The occupations with the largest number of difficult-to-fill vacancies included truck drivers, carpenters, personal care aides, construction laborers, farmworkers , and restaurant cooks. These occupations top the list of 354 occupations reported by businesses to have difficult-to-fill vacancies.

Difficult-to-fill vacancies offered higher average wages than vacancies filled without difficulty. The average offered wage was $18.28 per hour for difficult-to-fill vacancies and $16.62 for job openings filled without difficulty. Difficult-to-fill vacancies were more likely to require previous work experience. Sixty-seven percent required previous work experience, while just 40 percent of vacancies filled without difficulty required previous experience.

Oregon’s Future Workforce Needs

Businesses’ relatively strong demand for workers should continue through 2027. Oregon’s total employment is projected to grow by 12 percent between 2017 and 2027, with a total of 246,000 new jobs and an annual average of 263,000 total job openings. For every one new job created by new or expanding businesses, there will be another nine job openings to replace workers who retire or otherwise leave the labor force.

All private sectors in Oregon are expected to add jobs by 2027. Private health care and social assistance will lead all industries in new job growth. The gain of 49,500 new jobs (20% growth) in health care can be attributed to continued growth and aging of the state’s population. Health care will account for one out of every five new jobs created in Oregon by 2027.

Health care also tops the list of Oregon’s fastest-growing occupations over the 10-year period. Eleven of the top 20 occupations by growth rate are either health care practitioners or health care support workers. They include physician and medical assistants, home health aides, nurse practitioners, veterinarians and veterinary assistants, physical and massage therapists, and other health diagnosing and treating practitioners.

Oregon’s second fastest-growing industry will be construction. Demand from both population and economic growth, and currently low residential inventory and low commercial vacancy rates across many areas of the state should lead construction employment to rise by 16,900 jobs (17%). Cement masons and concrete finishers, roofers, painters, tile and marble setters, and construction managers are also among the fastest-growing occupations statewide.

A broad variety of career opportunities will be available across all sectors as well as all job types. At the typical entry-level education, one-third of all job openings will require education or training beyond high school. To meet more competitive education requirements, nearly half of all job openings require at least some training beyond high school.

Occupations with the most job openings and typically requiring a high school diploma or less include retail salespersons, cashiers, and food preparation and serving workers. Those requiring a postsecondary certification or associate degree include truck drivers, bookkeepers, and nursing and medical assistants. Occupations with the most total openings and at least a bachelor’s degree vary from general and operations managers to registered nurses, accountants, and software developers.

All areas of Oregon expect to see job opportunities due to both economic growth and to replace workers leaving the labor force in the coming years. The two regions projected to grow at the fastest rate are Central Oregon (15%) and the Portland area (13%).