C.O. jobless rates still low, as hiring slows – but how?

(Update: Adding regional economist comments)

The job situation is once again largely unchanged across all three Central Oregon counties, the state Employment Department reported Tuesday. Employment levels are nearly identical to what they were this time last year, and the unemployment rate has now remained at low levels for several years.

How can jobless rates remain so low, if hiring is slowing down? And what about the ” under-employed ” – those making such low wages they have to work two or more jobs?

Regional Economist Damon Runberg offered NewsChannel 21 some thoughts about how he reads the numbers and trends:

” Based on how the data is collected, I place more weight in the hiring numbers than the unemployment rate. We were adding jobs at a very fast pace for many years, and that energy has run out for the time being.

” We moved from fast growth, to slowing growth, and now, essentially no growth. But it is important to remember that no job growth is not the same as job losses. If there hasn’t been any significant hiring over the past year we would expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged, which it has.

” The county unemployment rates don’t account for the ‘underemployed,’ however we do have that information at the state level. Those measures of labor underutilization at the state level are also at very low levels and not trending up. In fact, the largest share of unemployed Oregonians are those new to the labor force, NOT those who lost a job.

” What does this tell me? 1) people aren’t losing jobs in large numbers, but business hiring has slowed dramatically. 2) The labor market remains tight (low unemployment rate), but wage growth has stalled, since the hiring demand is down. 3) Our labor force is still growing, despite the retiring boomers.

” This means that slow/ stagnant job market will most directly impact those new to the labor force looking for a job. It will likely take them a bit longer to find that job than it did a few years ago, which likely means that we will see the unemployment rate begin to slowly rise over the next few months, ” Runberg concluded.

Here’s his full report:

Crook County: The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.6 percent in August. The rate was 5.8 percent this time last year, not a statistically significant difference.

Crook County added 20 jobs in August, a normal increase this time of year.

The employment situation continues to be little changed over the past year in Crook County. Employment is up by 30 jobs, a growth of only 0.5 percent. There were modest gains in professional and businesses services; manufacturing; and information. However, those gains were largely balanced by losses in retail, leisure, and transportation, warehousing, and utilities.

Deschutes County (Bend-Redmond MSA ): The unemployment rate remained at 4.2 percent in August. The rate has been hovering around the 4 percent mark since early in 2017.

Deschutes County added 260 jobs in August, larger gains than typically expected this time of year. In fact, the county typically posts minor job losses in August.

But the trend toward slowing job growth continued in August, with total nonfarm employment up only 360 jobs in Deschutes County, compared with this time last year. That represents growth of less than 0.5 percent.

The pace of hiring was even slower in the private sector, where there was essentially no change over the past year. Professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and manufacturing all shed jobs over the past year. There were modest gains in retail, wholesale, health services, and local government. The slowing job growth has yet to translate into a notable increase in unemployed workers.

Jefferson County: The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.4 percent in August. The rate was 5.3 percent this time last year.

Jefferson County lost 110 jobs in August, fairly typical losses for this time of year.

Employment levels are down by 70 jobs from this time last year (-1.1%). Job losses were concentrated in professional and business services and Indian tribal government. There continues to be notable job growth in manufacturing and modest growth in leisure and hospitality.

Next Press Releases

The Oregon Employment Department plans to release the September county and metropolitan area unemployment rates on Tuesday, October 22 nd and the statewide unemployment rate and employment survey data for September on Tuesday, October 15 th .