Still growing: If Bend is a ‘Zoom town,’ Sisters, La Pine, Redmond ‘Super-Zoom’

(Update: Adding PSU, Census Bureau variance in Bend estimates)

Redmond not only grew much faster than Bend, but added more residents

BEND, Ore. (KTVZ) – Halfway through the topsy-turvy, but very memorable year of 2020, Central Oregon in general continued to grow faster than the state as a whole, new population estimates released Monday showed.

But since Bend is one of the nation’s top much-touted “Zoom towns,” named for the now-ubiquitous online meeting software that allows more and more remote workers amid COVID-19 to live wherever they please, then some of Bend’s closest neighbors could be called “super-Zoom” towns, for they are growing far faster – though in one case, much slower than a year ago.

Portland State University’s Population Research Center releases the preliminary July 1 estimates in mid-November of each year, giving communities a chance to review and, if need be, challenge the numbers before they become final a month later. (You can read about their methodology for coming up with the numbers here.)

But once a decade, a “real” count happens – the census, which occurs three months earlier, on April 1. When those federal census numbers are released next year, they will firm up the actual population counts, starting another decade of yearly estimates by PSU and the Census Bureau that can vary widely, due to different methodologies.

PSU said Monday that Oregon added 31,655 residents in 2019-20, or 0.7 of a percent, for a total estimated population of 4,268,055.

Deschutes County is in a familiar spot, as Oregon’s growth pace-setter, adding 4,015 residents for a population rise of 2.1 percent, to 197,015 – three times the state’s overall growth rate.

Jefferson County, meanwhile, added 265 people, for a population estimate of 24,105, up 1.1%.

But Crook County’s estimate didn’t budge, holding at 23,440, one of three Oregon counties to remain steady, the others being Union and Wheeler counties. Five counties – Grant, Harney, Josephine, Klamath and Lake – actually lost residents over the past year, according to the new estimates.

Among Central Oregon cities, Sisters grew the fastest in the year ended July 1, adding 235 people, or 7.8 percent, for a total of 3,220 residents. But that’s less than half the growth rate the city saw in 2018-19, when Sisters added 445 people, for a 17.5 percent jump.

The region's second-fastest growing city in the past year was La Pine, which grew by 105 residents to 2,005 in total, a rise of just over 5.5 percent.

Redmond was close behind at third place, adding an estimated 1,615 residents, for a total of 32,215 people, growing by 5.28 percent.

What’s most striking about that is not only did Redmond grow far faster than Bend in the past year, but it actually added more residents than Bend, which grew by 1,455 people to a total estimate of 92,840, a relatively low growth rate of 1.6 percent.

Damian Syrnyk, a city of Bend senior planner, noted that Bend's population growth for the year represented more than a third (36%) of the county's growth in the past year. He also pointed out that Bend fell well short of PSU's forecast 2020 population of 98,025 residents.

The PSU and Census Bureau estimates are often different, especially late in the decade -- but rarely as dramatic as now for Bend, as the Census Bureau said Bend topped 100,000 residents by mid-2019, nearly 8,000 more people than PSU estimated for this summer.

Syrnyk said rather than file a PSU challenge, he'd recommend the city wait for the April 1, 2020 census count, as "those will serve as the new base for subsequent estimates from PSU and the Census Bureau."

As for other High Desert communities, Madras added 90 residents, reaching a population of 6,470, up 1.4 percent. Prineville added 135 residents for an estimated population of 10,355, up 1.3 percent. Culver’s 15 added residents, just under 1 percent, putting the city at 1,570 residents, while Metolius didn’t grow or shrink, its estimate holding at 825.