Oregon reports 5 new COVID-19 deaths, 250 cases amid worrisome new modeling

Daily hospitalizations would more than triple under 'moderate' scenario

(Update: Daily case count; eighth county added to face covering requirement)

PORTLAND, Ore. (KTVZ) -- COVID-19 has claimed five more lives in Oregon, raising the state’s death toll to 202, along with 250 new cases, the Oregon Health Authority reported Friday as it released worrisome new modeling of a potential sharp rise in cases and hospitalizations in coming weeks.

OHA reported 250 new confirmed and presumptive cases of COVID-19 as of 12:01 a.m. Friday, bringing the state total to 7,818 cases, along with. It was the second-highest daily case count, second only to 278 cases reported on June 16.

The new cases reported Friday are in the following counties: Benton (4), Clackamas (17), Columbia (1), Deschutes (4), Douglas (4), Jackson (5), Jefferson (6), Josephine (2), Lake (3), Lane (10), Lincoln (4), Linn (4), Malheur (13), Marion (18), Morrow (12), Multnomah (61), Umatilla (22), Union (12), Wasco (3), Washington (39), and Yamhill (6).

Deschutes County added four cases for a total of 159, while Jefferson County, which includes Warm Springs, had six more cases for a total of 91; Warm Springs reported six new cases as of late Thursday, for a total of 63. Crook County remained at nine cases. OHA said negative test result numbers were pending.

Oregon’s 198th COVID-19 death is a 96-year-old woman in Marion County who tested positive on June 18 and died June 25, in her residence. She had underlying conditions.

Oregon’s 199th COVID-19 death is a 90-year-old man in Marion County who tested positive on June 19 and died June 25, in his residence. He had underlying conditions.

Oregon’s 200th COVID-19 death is a 79-year-old woman in Marion County who tested positive on June 18 and died June 24, in her residence. She had underlying conditions.

Oregon’s 201st COVID-19 death is a 90-year-old woman in Union County who tested positive on June 13 and died June 25, at Grande Ronde Hospital. She had underlying conditions.

Oregon’s 202nd COVID-19 death is a 74-year-old woman in Morrow County who tested positive on June 22. Additional information about this COVID-19 related death is still pending. An update will be provided when we have additional information.

OHA updates face covering guidance for specific counties

In order to clarify face covering use requirements, OHA has updated its guidance document for residents of Clackamas, Hood River, Lincoln, Marion, Multnomah, Polk and Washington counties.

In these counties, face covering use is required in all businesses and for the general public when visiting these businesses and for the general public when visiting indoor spaces open to the public.

Based on a request from Clatsop County commissioners, Gov. Kate Brown on Friday added the face covering requirement for that county, adding it to seven others where it took effect Wednesday: Multnomah, Clackamas, Washington, Marion, Polk, Hood River and Lincoln counties.

"The governor’s office continues to strongly recommend that Oregonians in all counties wear face coverings in public, both indoors and outdoors, especially when six feet of distance from other individuals cannot be maintained," the statement said.

The governor also released general guidance for the use of face coverings in counties beyond the specified counties.

In the guidelines, indoor spaces are defined as spaces, whether publicly owned or privately owned, “where the public has access by right or invitation, express or implied, whether by payment of money or not.” In addition to the public areas of the businesses those spaces include building lobbies or common spaces, elevators, and buildings or meeting rooms outside of private homes where people gather for social, civic, cultural or religious purposes.

Stay informed about COVID-19:

Oregon response: The Oregon Health Authority and Oregon Office of Emergency Management lead the state response.

United States response: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention leads the U.S. response.

Global response: The World Health Organization guides the global response.

Earlier story:

New modeling of COVID-19 shows that the virus is spreading more rapidly in Oregon and could mean 900-plus new cases every day, according to the latest "moderate scenario," released Friday by the Oregon Health Authority and the Institute for Disease Modeling.

The model, which is based on data through June 18, offers three projections -- optimistic, moderate and pessimistic -- predicting that daily case levels could rise as much as 20 percentage points.

The modeling assumes that hospitalizations from COVID-19 remain stable and testing remains at its present level of approximately 4,000 a day:

• The optimistic scenario with those assumptions suggests the previous modeling increase of June 11 was the result of higher testing and that case counts would remain stable at about 180 per day over the next month. This is the least likely scenario to occur because it assumes diagnosis of all new cases and presently about one-third of new infections cannot be traced to a known source.
• The moderate scenario suggests the rise in cases in the last modeling report was due to increased transmission and expanded testing -- and that daily infections of COVID-19 could rise over the next month to more than 900 per day, with daily hospitalizations rising from 8 to 27.
• The most pessimistic scenario suggests the rise in cases in the last modeling report was due entirely to increased transmission and not expanded testing -- and that infections could rise to more than 4,800, and hospitalizations could increase to 82 per day.

"We know that COVID-19 is in our communities," said Dean Sidelinger, MD, Oregon state health officer. "This latest model provides us with a sobering reminder that we all need to guard against continued spread, especially as we continue to reopen and the weather gets warmer."

Sidelinger added, "Think hard about your choice of activities, especially as we get close to the Fourth of July holiday. Ask yourself: 'How can I reduce my risk and the risk I might pose to people around me?'"

"Do what you can to suppress the virus: Stay 6 feet away from other people. Wear a mask. Avoid large gatherings, and if you are in a group setting -- like a holiday barbecue -- stay outside, keep your distance and use a face covering when you’re not eating. Wash your hands frequently and stay home if you’re sick.

OHA uses this modeling for data analysis and planning purposes and releases it on a bi-weekly basis. The entire report can be found here.