Central Oregon has been state’s growth pace-setter this pandemic-challenged decade, Census Bureau estimates show
BEND, Ore. (KTVZ) – Central Oregon has been the state’s growth engine so far this pandemic-challenged decade, accounting for nearly half of the state’s population increase, according to July 2024 estimates released this week by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The Bend Metropolitan Statistical Area – which as of a year ago includes all of Deschutes, Crook and Jefferson counties – grew by almost 7%, or nearly 17,000 residents between the April 2020 Census headcount and last July 1, to a new estimate of 264,407 people, the Census Bureau estimates show.
The High Desert’s pace-setter was Crook County, which has added 2,597 residents, or 10.5%, to 27,336 people over the four-year period. Deschutes County has grown by 13,282 people, or 6.7% this decade, to total 211,535 residents, while Jefferson County added 1,033 people, or 4.2%, to 25,536 residents.
“What I found most interesting is that during this period of 2020-2024, the Central Oregon region accounted for 47% of the state’s total population growth,” City of Bend Senior Planner Damian Syrnyk told KTVZ News.
“From 2020 to 2024, the state grew by 35,147 people,” he said. “The three-county region’s population grew by 16,912 people. So Central Oregon is not only the leader in the state regarding population growth, but the engine that’s contributing to most of the state’s growth from 2020-24.”
The Census Bureau estimates, used to distribute federal funds, is based on the number of births, deaths and migration in and out of cities and counties.
A somewhat different formula is used by the Portland State University Population Research Center, which certified its own Oregon, county and city population estimates in mid-December.
The PSU estimates for Central Oregon counties were smaller than the Census Bureau figures. They estimated 206,612 Deschutes County residents as of last July 1, for example, about 3,000 lower than the new Census Bureau estimates.
The PSU demographers estimated Crook County had 1,000 fewer residents, at 26,366, while they said Jefferson County had 25,447 residents, a difference of just 111 people from the Census Bureau figures.
But interestingly, PSU had a higher statewide population estimate of 4,263,385 Oregon residents last July, compared to the Census Bureau estimate of 4,237,224 Oregon residents.
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Census Bureau news release:
Growth in Metro Areas Outpaced Nation
Some Metro Areas That Experienced Population Declines During COVID Are Bouncing Back
Population growth in U.S. metro areas as a whole was faster between 2023 and 2024 than in the previous year and outpaced that of the nation. Additionally, some metro areas that experienced population declines during the COVID-19 pandemic are now observing population gains, according to Vintage 2024 estimates of population totals and components of change released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau.
“Increasingly, population growth in metro areas is being shaped by international migration,” said Kristie Wilder, a demographer in the Census Bureau’s Population Division. “While births continue to contribute to overall growth, rising net international migration is offsetting the ongoing net domestic outmigration we see in many of these areas.”
All of the nation’s 387 metro areas had positive net international migration between 2023 and 2024, and it accounted for nearly 2.7 million of the total population gain in metro areas — up from 2.2 million between 2022 and 2023. These trends were measured using an improved method that combines survey data and administrative data from other federal agencies.
The Population Estimates Program uses current data on births, deaths and migration to calculate population change since the most recent decennial census (2020 Census) and produce an annual time series of estimates of population. Today’s release includes population totals and components of change for U.S. counties and metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas, and total population for Puerto Rico municipios and metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas. Tables are available on <census.gov/popest>.
Key Takeaways
- Between 2023 and 2024, the number of people living in a U.S. metro area increased by nearly 3.2 million (or around 1.1%) to 293.9 million. In comparison, the total U.S. population increased by nearly 1.0% to more than 340 million people.
- The population in metro areas also grew faster from 2023 to 2024 than between 2022 and 2023 (when it increased by 0.9% or 2.6 million people) largely due to higher levels of net international migration.
- The population in nearly 90% (341 of 387) of U.S. metro areas grew from 2023 to 2024, up from 317 between 2022 and 2023.
- The collective increase in population across metro areas was largely attributable to net international migration — approximately 2.7 million, with an additional 0.6 million from natural increase (excess of births over deaths).
- Some metro areas that experienced population declines earlier in the decade, such as New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ, Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV, and San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA, experienced population gains from 2023 to 2024.
County Highlights
Nearly two-thirds (65.3%) of the 3,144 counties in the 50 states and the District of Columbia grew last year. In general, large counties had faster growth in 2024, while small counties noted more population loss.
Large counties (those with populations over 100,000 in 2024) grew on average by 1.1%, up from 1.0% in 2023. Conversely, among the 737 smallest counties with populations below 10,000, the average annual decrease was 0.2% in 2024, compared to a 0.1% decrease from 2022 to 2023.
- In 2024, the average percent change for counties was just under 0.4 while the average numeric change was 1,051.
- Nine of the 10 largest-gaining counties were located in large metro areas in the South and West.
- In the 2,054 counties that grew last year, growth largely stemmed from international migration, as natural decrease (more deaths than births) remained prevalent in many parts of the country.
Refer to the bottom of the release for tables on the Top 10 Most Populous Counties: 2024; Top 10 Counties by Numeric Growth: 2023 to 2024; Top 10 Counties by Percent Growth: 2023 to 2024; and Top 10 Counties by Numeric Decline: 2023 to 2024.
Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas
- In 2024, 86.4% of the U.S. population lived in metro areas.
- Metro areas as a whole increased by nearly 3.2 million from 2023 to 2024, accounting for 96% of the nation’s total population growth.
- Roughly 60% of individual metro areas experienced natural increase and approximately 59% had net domestic in-migration (although U.S. metro areas overall experienced net domestic outmigration).
- Of the 10 fastest-growing metro areas between 2023 and 2024, nine were in the South, while one was in the West, with the two fastest growing being located in Florida.
- Seven of the 10 fastest-growing micro areas were in the South, with the two fastest growing over the period located in Georgia and Florida.
Refer to the bottom of the release for tables on the Top 10 Metro Areas by Numeric Growth: 2023 to 2024; Top 10 Metro Areas by Percent Growth: 2023 to 2024; Top 10 Micro Areas by Numeric Growth: 2023 to 2024; and Top 10 Micro Areas by Percent Growth: 2023 to 2024.
Technical Notes
The most recent net international migration estimates reflect methodological improvements, which included the incorporation of additional administrative data. Details are available in the Random Samplings blog, “Census Bureau Improves Methodology to Better Capture Increase in Net International Migration.”
In May, the Census Bureau is scheduled to release estimates of the July 1, 2024, population for cities and towns (incorporated places and minor civil divisions). The data will be embargoed. The full release schedule for the Population Estimates Program can be found on the Census Bureau’s website.
With each new release of annual estimates, the entire time series of estimates is revised for all years back to the date of the last census. All previously published estimates (i.e., old vintages) are superseded and archived on the FTP2 site. Due to periodic methodological updates, such as this year’s immigration adjustment, year-to-year comparisons in the estimates should only be done within the same vintage.
Tables
- Top 10 Most Populous Counties: July 1, 2024
- Top 10 Counties by Numeric Growth: July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024
- Top 10 Counties by Percent Growth: July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024
- Top 10 Counties by Numeric Decline: July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024
- Top 10 Counties by Percent Decline: July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024
- Top 10 U.S. Metro Areas by Numeric Growth: July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024
- Top 10 U.S. Metro Areas by Percent Growth: July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024
- Top 10 U.S. Micro Areas by Numeric Growth: July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024
- Top 10 U.S. Micro Areas by Percent Growth: July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024
Top 10 Most Populous Counties: July 1, 2024
| Rank | State | County | April 1, 2020 (Estimates Base) | July 1, 2023 | July 1, 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | California | Los Angeles County | 10,017,401 | 9,731,837 | 9,757,179 |
| 2 | Illinois | Cook County | 5,278,969 | 5,142,522 | 5,182,617 |
| 3 | Texas | Harris County | 4,731,433 | 4,903,450 | 5,009,302 |
| 4 | Arizona | Maricopa County | 4,425,315 | 4,615,625 | 4,673,096 |
| 5 | California | San Diego County | 3,298,647 | 3,285,890 | 3,298,799 |
| 6 | California | Orange County | 3,187,256 | 3,154,563 | 3,170,435 |
| 7 | Florida | Miami-Dade County | 2,701,751 | 2,774,250 | 2,838,461 |
| 8 | Texas | Dallas County | 2,611,995 | 2,636,254 | 2,656,028 |
| 9 | New York | Kings County | 2,736,296 | 2,592,937 | 2,617,631 |
| 10 | California | Riverside County | 2,419,967 | 2,503,549 | 2,529,933 |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2024 Population Estimates. | |||||
Top 10 Counties by Numeric Growth: July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024
| Rank | State | County | April 1, 2020 (Estimates Base) | July 1, 2023 | July 1, 2024 | Numeric Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas | Harris County | 4,731,433 | 4,903,450 | 5,009,302 | 105,852 |
| 2 | Florida | Miami-Dade County | 2,701,751 | 2,774,250 | 2,838,461 | 64,211 |
| 3 | Arizona | Maricopa County | 4,425,315 | 4,615,625 | 4,673,096 | 57,471 |
| 4 | Texas | Collin County | 1,066,331 | 1,207,964 | 1,254,658 | 46,694 |
| 5 | Nevada | Clark County | 2,266,452 | 2,354,285 | 2,398,871 | 44,586 |
| 6 | Washington | King County | 2,269,666 | 2,296,813 | 2,340,211 | 43,398 |
| 7 | Illinois | Cook County | 5,278,969 | 5,142,522 | 5,182,617 | 40,095 |
| 8 | Florida | Broward County | 1,944,404 | 2,002,786 | 2,037,472 | 34,686 |
| 9 | Texas | Montgomery County | 620,567 | 715,345 | 749,613 | 34,268 |
| 10 | Texas | Tarrant County | 2,110,999 | 2,197,915 | 2,230,708 | 32,793 |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2024 Population Estimates. | ||||||
Top 10 Counties by Percent Growth: July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024
Resident Population of 20,000 or More in 2023 and 2024
| Rank | State | County | April 1, 2020 (Estimates Base) | July 1, 2023 | July 1, 2024 | Percent Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | Dawson County | 26,797 | 31,720 | 33,748 | 6.4% |
| 2 | Texas | Kaufman County | 145,330 | 186,715 | 197,829 | 6.0% |
| 3 | South Carolina | Jasper County | 28,805 | 33,642 | 35,618 | 5.9% |
| 4 | Georgia | Jackson County | 75,918 | 88,723 | 93,825 | 5.8% |
| 5 | Arizona | Pinal County | 426,007 | 486,395 | 513,862 | 5.6% |
| 6 | Texas | Liberty County | 91,658 | 109,172 | 115,042 | 5.4% |
| 7 | Texas | Montgomery County | 620,567 | 715,345 | 749,613 | 4.8% |
| 8 | Florida | Osceola County | 388,661 | 447,243 | 468,058 | 4.7% |
| 9 | Texas | Caldwell County | 45,879 | 50,107 | 52,430 | 4.6% |
| 10 | Florida | Hendry County | 39,619 | 44,111 | 46,130 | 4.6% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2024 Population Estimates. | ||||||
Top 10 Counties by Numeric Decline: July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024
| Rank | State | County | April 1, 2020 (Estimates Base) | July 1, 2023 | July 1, 2024 | Numeric Decline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tennessee | Shelby County | 930,015 | 913,909 | 910,530 | -3,379 |
| 2 | Missouri | St. Louis city | 301,371 | 282,772 | 279,695 | -3,077 |
| 3 | Mississippi | Hinds County | 227,739 | 214,517 | 211,975 | -2,542 |
| 4 | Louisiana | Orleans Parish | 384,130 | 365,167 | 362,701 | -2,466 |
| 5 | Georgia | Clayton County | 299,394 | 299,380 | 297,703 | -1,677 |
| 6 | California | Humboldt County | 136,467 | 134,009 | 132,380 | -1,629 |
| 7 | Mississippi | Yazoo County | 26,745 | 24,603 | 23,024 | -1,579 |
| 8 | Louisiana | Caddo Parish | 237,823 | 226,460 | 224,893 | -1,567 |
| 9 | Florida | Pinellas County | 959,111 | 967,301 | 965,870 | -1,431 |
| 10 | California | Santa Cruz County | 272,140 | 263,699 | 262,406 | -1,293 |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2024 Population Estimates. | ||||||
Top 10 Counties by Percent Decline: July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024
Resident Population of 20,000 or More in 2023 and 2024
| Rank | State | County | April 1, 2020 (Estimates Base) | July 1, 2023 | July 1, 2024 | Percent Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mississippi | Yazoo County | 26,745 | 24,603 | 23,024 | -6.4% |
| 2 | Mississippi | Sunflower County | 25,816 | 23,940 | 23,029 | -3.8% |
| 3 | Georgia | Mitchell County | 21,766 | 20,778 | 20,329 | -2.2% |
| 4 | Oregon | Curry County | 23,448 | 23,273 | 22,774 | -2.1% |
| 5 | Alabama | Dallas County | 38,470 | 36,294 | 35,545 | -2.1% |
| 6 | California | Lassen County | 32,733 | 28,838 | 28,340 | -1.7% |
| 7 | Mississippi | Washington County | 44,928 | 41,902 | 41,181 | -1.7% |
| 8 | Mississippi | Leflore County | 28,493 | 26,595 | 26,157 | -1.6% |
| 9 | Mississippi | Bolivar County | 30,986 | 28,850 | 28,395 | -1.6% |
| 10 | Indiana | Fulton County | 20,477 | 20,319 | 20,004 | -1.6% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2024 Population Estimates. | ||||||
Top 10 U.S. Metro Areas by Numeric Growth: July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024
| Rank | Metro Area | April 1, 2020 (Estimates Base) | July 1, 2023 | July 1, 2024 | Numeric Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ | 20,083,412 | 19,726,871 | 19,940,274 | 213,403 |
| 2 | Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX | 7,150,233 | 7,598,011 | 7,796,182 | 198,171 |
| 3 | Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX | 7,638,258 | 8,166,110 | 8,344,032 | 177,922 |
| 4 | Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL | 6,138,357 | 6,334,517 | 6,457,988 | 123,471 |
| 5 | Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV | 6,278,595 | 6,345,881 | 6,436,489 | 90,608 |
| 6 | Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ | 4,851,322 | 5,102,020 | 5,186,958 | 84,938 |
| 7 | Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | 2,673,387 | 2,864,544 | 2,940,513 | 75,969 |
| 8 | Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA | 6,106,805 | 6,336,015 | 6,411,149 | 75,134 |
| 9 | Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN | 9,454,363 | 9,337,814 | 9,408,576 | 70,762 |
| 10 | Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA | 4,018,783 | 4,078,828 | 4,145,494 | 66,666 |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2024 Population Estimates. | |||||
Top 10 U.S. Metro Areas by Percent Growth: July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024
| Rank | Metro Area | April 1, 2020 (Estimates Base) | July 1, 2023 | July 1, 2024 | Percent Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ocala, FL | 375,902 | 412,338 | 428,905 | 4.0% |
| 2 | Panama City-Panama City Beach, FL | 200,521 | 217,967 | 226,221 | 3.8% |
| 3 | Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC | 351,038 | 398,374 | 413,391 | 3.8% |
| 4 | Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | 725,036 | 824,172 | 852,878 | 3.5% |
| 5 | Provo-Orem-Lehi, UT | 671,181 | 738,375 | 760,531 | 3.0% |
| 6 | Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL | 231,767 | 254,107 | 261,608 | 3.0% |
| 7 | Port St. Lucie, FL | 487,654 | 540,427 | 556,336 | 2.9% |
| 8 | Midland, TX | 175,587 | 183,557 | 188,766 | 2.8% |
| 9 | Odessa, TX | 165,182 | 165,450 | 170,022 | 2.8% |
| 10 | Spartanburg, SC | 355,237 | 385,441 | 395,934 | 2.7% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2024 Population Estimates. | |||||
Top 10 U.S. Micro Areas by Numeric Growth: July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024
| Rank | Micro Area | April 1, 2020 (Estimates Base) | July 1, 2023 | July 1, 2024 | Numeric Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seaford, DE | 237,390 | 263,975 | 271,134 | 7,159 |
| 2 | Jefferson, GA | 75,918 | 88,723 | 93,825 | 5,102 |
| 3 | Anderson Creek, NC | 133,556 | 141,792 | 146,096 | 4,304 |
| 4 | Clewiston, FL | 51,745 | 56,950 | 59,262 | 2,312 |
| 5 | Richmond-Berea, KY | 122,902 | 127,707 | 129,810 | 2,103 |
| 6 | Hilo-Kailua, HI | 200,629 | 208,043 | 209,790 | 1,747 |
| 7 | Hobbs, NM | 74,457 | 73,503 | 75,151 | 1,648 |
| 8 | Moses Lake, WA | 99,125 | 103,088 | 104,717 | 1,629 |
| 9 | Cookeville, TN | 141,331 | 148,351 | 149,929 | 1,578 |
| 10 | Albemarle, NC | 62,502 | 65,818 | 67,326 | 1,508 |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2024 Population Estimates. | |||||
Top 10 U.S. Micro Areas by Percent Growth: July 1, 2023, to July 1, 2024
| Rank | Micro Area | April 1, 2020 (Estimates Base) | July 1, 2023 | July 1, 2024 | Percent Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jefferson, GA | 75,918 | 88,723 | 93,825 | 5.8% |
| 2 | Clewiston, FL | 51,745 | 56,950 | 59,262 | 4.1% |
| 3 | Williston, ND | 40,951 | 39,304 | 40,763 | 3.7% |
| 4 | Anderson Creek, NC | 133,556 | 141,792 | 146,096 | 3.0% |
| 5 | Seaford, DE | 237,390 | 263,975 | 271,134 | 2.7% |
| 6 | Spearfish, SD | 25,776 | 28,106 | 28,809 | 2.5% |
| 7 | Sandpoint, ID | 47,109 | 52,709 | 53,955 | 2.4% |
| 8 | Albemarle, NC | 62,502 | 65,818 | 67,326 | 2.3% |
| 9 | Lewisburg, TN | 34,322 | 37,008 | 37,847 | 2.3% |
| 10 | McMinnville, TN | 40,950 | 42,655 | 43,619 | 2.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2024 Population Estimates. | |||||
