Oregon expects to add 141,000 jobs by 2034, a 6% rise; here’s what categories are expected to lead the way

SALEM, Ore. (KTVZ) -- The Oregon Employment Department projected Thursday that Oregon’s total employment will grow by 141,000 jobs, or 6% in the next decade.

The 2024-2034 employment projections "reflect modest job growth in the economy, although many additional job openings are expected due to the need to replace workers who leave their occupations," the department said.

In 2024, there were 2.2 million jobs in Oregon. The projected 6% increase in employment between 2024 and 2034 includes private-sector gains of 125,500 jobs, growth of 7,700 jobs in government, and an additional 7,400 self-employed Oregonians.

Beyond gains associated with the anticipated economic growth, another 2.4 million job openings will be created by 2034 to replace workers who retire, leave the labor force for other reasons, or make a major occupational change. Together, the number of job openings due to job growth and replacements will total nearly 2.6 million.

All broad sectors in Oregon are expected to add jobs by 2034, except for federal government, which is projected to decline by 3% (-1,000 jobs). The private health care and social assistance sector is projected to increase the fastest, growing by 13%.

Private health care and social assistance is also projected to add the largest number of jobs over the next 10 years (+40,400 jobs). This growth is attributed to the aging of the state’s population, longer life expectancies, and an expected rebound in the state’s long-term population growth.

The construction and professional and business services sectors are projected to grow at the second-fastest rate, gaining 10% each. Growth in construction can be attributed to construction of buildings (+11%) and specialty trade contractors (+11%), which includes establishments that perform specific construction-related activities such as site preparation, plumbing, painting, and electrical work.

Growth in professional and business services is expected to be primarily driven by professional and technical services (+15%), which includes architectural and engineering services (+23%), computer systems design and related services (+10%), and legal services (-3%).

Many of the fastest-growing occupations are associated with jobs in the health care industry. Nine of the top 15 fastest-growing occupations by 2034 are in health care. They include nurse practitioners, physician assistants, medical and health services managers, and psychiatric technicians. Computer and mathematical occupations comprise three of the top 15 fastest-growing occupations, as demand increases for workers who can model, interpret, and analyze data in addition to demand for the development of AI solutions and their integration into business practices. They include data scientists, information security analysts, and operations research analysts.

A broad variety of career opportunities will be available across all sectors, as well as all job types. Four out of 10 job openings will require education or training beyond high school, but applicants will require education beyond high school to be competitive in six out of 10 job openings.

Occupations with the most job openings that typically require a high school diploma or less include fast food workers, stockers and order fillers, retail salespersons, cashiers, and home health and personal care aides. Those requiring a postsecondary certification or associate’s degree include bookkeepers, truck drivers, nursing and medical assistants.

Occupations with the most job openings requiring at least a bachelor’s degree vary from general and operations managers to registered nurses, other educational instruction and library workers, project management specialists, and all other business operations specialists.

All areas of Oregon are expected to see job opportunities in the coming years due to economic growth and the replacement of workers leaving the labor force. The two areas projected to grow faster than Oregon's rate of 6% are the Portland tri-county area (7%) and Central Oregon (7%). Slower growth is expected in the Columbia Gorge, Northwest, South Central, Southwestern Oregon, and the Eastern Six Oregon counties with 5% growth each.

More information on 2024-2034 industry and occupational projections for Oregon and sub-state areas can be found at www.qualityinfo.org/projections.