Oregon forecasters predict, prepare for increased drought and wildfire risk after NOAA climate outlook

By Robin Linares, Oregon Capital Chronicle

SALEM, Ore. -- While the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascades is known for its seemingly constant rain, much of Oregon is preparing for drought conditions and increased wildfire risk for the summer.

This comes after Oregon’s uncharacteristically mild winter. Much of winter saw warmer temperatures, tied with 1934 as the warmest winter on record for the state. This created a record-low snowpack throughout the Pacific Northwest, with levels falling to one-third of normal, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

“It’s a very worrying trend,” said Larry O’Neill, Oregon’s state climatologist. “Because it was so warm, our snowpack just really failed to build. Snowpack functionally acts as a reservoir for water. Basically, our largest reservoir of water is nearly empty at this point in time.”

O’Neill, an associate professor at Oregon State University, is also a member of the state’s Drought Readiness Council and Water Supply Availability Committee. By early March, several counties had already requested support from the Readiness Council to receive additional funding and aid for the summer.

Under the recommendation and guidance of these two committees, Gov. Tina Kotek signed an executive order on March 31 declaring drought emergencies in three eastern Oregon counties and clearing the way for extra state support. Her order was months earlier than the first drought declarations in 2024 or 2025. 

Prolonged drought can lower water levels and make waterways warmer, negatively affecting native cold-water fish including trout, salmon and steelhead, according to the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. Warmer waterways especially can make species more vulnerable to disease and decreased oxygen levels.

These impacts on fisheries can be long-lasting, O’Neill said, pointing to drought conditions in 2015. According to an Oregon State University article, it took the most resilient species nearly two years to return to pre-drought conditions. 

“If you want a bad wildfire season, you start with a bad snowpack, and so right now, we can’t predict exactly what it’ll be like in the summer. But if we have a dry spring, the bad snowpack then the dry spring will really kind of put the nail in that coffin,” O’Neill said. “I’m increasingly concerned that this will end up rivaling 2015 as the warmest calendar year on record in Oregon.”

These warm and dry conditions outlined in the NOAA spring outlook can make an extreme impact on wildfire risk, O’Neill added. While he noted that a rainy spring can help lower the risk of an extreme wildfire season, the current NOAA outlook continues the dry trend. This means that the wildfire season can start earlier and be more extreme, O’Neill warned. 

“All the information we have at hand at this moment, that seems to be a more likely outcome is that the wildfire season could be more active and a lot of the fire agencies are starting to prepare for that right now,” O’Neill said.

State agencies, industries prepare

The Oregon State Fire Marshal responds to wildfires year-round, though the agency also puts a special emphasis on preparedness and management for homeowners in advance of the fire season.

“It’s kind of a two-pronged approach,” said John Hendricks, the office’s public affairs specialist. “We work on the suppression side when wildfires may impact the community or critical infrastructure, and then we work in the area of defensible space and getting communities and homeowners prepared to reduce that risk to their home and property.”

While weather outlooks can be somewhat unpredictable several months in advance, Hendricks said that early spring is the time the agency looks to build defensible space — or a buffer zone between vegetation and buildings to help slow potential wildfire spread. 

“Just the simple act of getting up on the roof and cleaning off any pine needles or cleaning up the gutters,” Hendricks said. “Each one of those projects is going to help reduce your home’s risk to damage or loss because of wildfire.”

For local fire agencies, the office offers a grant program, made possible by a 2021 law creating policies to reduce wildfire risk. The grant gives local departments $35,ooo grants to build their personnel and capacity heading into fire season. 

“$35,000 doesn’t sound like a lot, but it does so much for these communities. One of the benefits of it is that it provides staff on duty to respond to wildfires, but they can also respond to other calls as well,” Hendricks said.

Aid doesn’t only come from the state government. The Oregon Cattleman’s Association, a trade association that represents ranchers,  offers a Wildfire Assistance fund to help members and non-members alike with wildfire recovery. 

Association President Diana Wirth said many ranchers feel prepared to handle varying weather conditions because of  their longtime work and understanding of the land they use. 

“Ranchers here are pretty ready to deal with those issues, because we’ve dealt with them before.” Wirth said. “When it comes to mitigating disasters, ranchers are fairly prepared to take care of themselves, because we’re an independent demographic, and we’re used to working on land. We’re used to taking care of our resources and stewarding it in a manner that’s responsible.”

Some of these resilience strategies that Wirth outlined to reduce drought and wildfire risk include livestock grazing to reduce the fuel load.

For drought mitigation, the focus is on riparian zones, or vegetated areas alongside waterways.

“We’re already making plans on how to protect our riparian zones. That’s something just common knowledge throughout our industry,” Wirth said. “Protecting your riparian zones when water resources get down is really probably one of the singularly most important things a rancher can do.”

Looking toward the summer, Hendricks shared an additional fire safety tip to prevent human-caused fires. Debris burning is the leading cause of wildfire, he said, emphasizing the importance of paying attention to fire regulations and conditions when spending time outside.

“It’s going to take all of us, within the state, to do our part as we deal with more and more fires each summer,” Hendricks concluded. “(We) often say that Mother Nature sometimes gives us enough for us to handle, and we don’t need our fellow humans doing the same thing and contributing to that.”