Matt Gaetz will fend off McCarthy-backed primary challenger, CNN projects, while Florida’s Senate matchup is set

(CNN) — Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz will fend off a primary challenge Tuesday, CNN projects, overcoming former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s efforts to take revenge on the Republicans who voted for his ouster last year.

Gaetz is projected to defeat retired Navy aviator Aaron Dimmock, who was a late entrant into the race for Florida’s 1st Congressional District and was assisted by McCarthy’s former political team. The long-running feud between the California Republican and Gaetz – who led the effort to oust McCarthy from the speakership – helped propel a flood of contentious advertising that totaled more than $5.2 million, making it among the most expensive GOP House primaries of the year.

During the campaign, Gaetz highlighted Dimmock’s job working remotely for Missouri’s Office of Administration, as well as his previous work as director of a firm that conducts workplace training. Gaetz’s ads sought to portray his opponent as a liberal in disguise, charging that he “teaches radical liberal ideology to DEI groups in Missouri” and branding him “DEI Dimmick,” using the acronym for diversity, equity and inclusion.

McCarthy’s revenge tour has included one significant victory – helping defeat Virginia Rep. Bob Good, the chairman of the hard-line House Freedom Caucus – but has otherwise fallen short.

Still, the Florida primary could serve as the start of an effort to hurt Gaetz’s prospects for higher office in the Sunshine State. There has been speculation that he could run for governor in 2026 in what’s expected to be a crowded primary to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis.

The bad blood between Gaetz and McCarthy was on display when Republicans gathered for their convention last month in Milwaukee.

Gaetz interrupted McCarthy’s interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins on the convention floor to tell him that “if you took that stage, you would get booed off of it.”

In response, McCarthy said that the Florida congressman looked “very unhinged.”

“A lot of people have concerns about it. And I’m not sure if he was on something but I do hope he gets the help that he needs,” McCarthy told CNN’s Manu Raju later. “But more importantly, I hope that young women get the justice they deserve when it comes to him,” he added, referring to the ongoing ethics investigation into Gaetz.

An anti-Gaetz outside group, Florida Patriots PAC, spent $3.5 million on the race, targeting Gaetz with waves of blistering attack ads while also airing spots boosting Dimmock.

Several of the group’s ads referenced the allegations of sexual misconduct against Gaetz, which are currently under investigation by the House Ethics Committee.

Gaetz ended up spending about $1.5 million in his defense on air. One ad highlighted his ties to former President Donald Trump with video of Gaetz declaring at a rally, “This is Donald Trump’s party, and I’m a Donald Trump Republican,” and clips of the former president praising Gaetz.

Scott to face Mucarsel-Powell

Florida Sen. Rick Scott and Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell will win their US Senate primaries Tuesday, CNN projects, setting up a rare competitive race for a Republican-held seat this year.

Democrats view Florida as one of two offensive opportunities – the other being Texas, where GOP Sen. Ted Cruz is also seeking reelection – on an otherwise challenging Senate map.

Once a pivotal swing state in national elections, Florida has turned sharply right in recent years, with Republicans now holding all statewide offices. But Democrats hope that Scott’s relative unpopularity, along with an abortion rights ballot initiative, could make the state more hospitable and boost their odds of keeping the Senate.

Republicans need to flip either two seats or one seat and win the White House to take control of the chamber. They are virtually certain to flip one seat already – in deep-red West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring. Democrats, meanwhile, are defending more than half a dozen seats in red or battleground states.

Scott has won three statewide elections in Florida – two races for governor and one for Senate – all by narrow margins. In 2018, he unseated Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson by about 10,000 votes out of more than 8 million cast. Scott is also in a three-way secret ballot race to succeed Mitch McConnell as Senate GOP leader after the November elections.

Through July 31, Scott significantly outraised Mucarsel-Powell, a former congresswoman, thanks in part to the $12.6 million the former health care executive loaned his own campaign. One of the most prolific self-funders in Senate history, Scott has also spent more than $11 million on ads so far this cycle, while Mucarsel-Powell has spent considerably less – $2.1 million, nearly all of it targeting digital platforms.

Mucarsel-Powell was the first Ecuadorian American and first South American immigrant elected to Congress when she flipped a Miami-area district in 2018. She narrowly lost reelection two years later, before being recruited to run for Senate last year.

Since entering the race, Mucarsel-Powell has hit Scott over his past proposal to sunset federal programs, including Medicare and Social Security, after five years. Scott later revised his plans to add exemptions for those programs.

Democrats are hoping that anger over the state’s six-week abortion ban signed into law by GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis could also boost their chances. While the law includes exceptions for rape, incest and the life and health of the pregnant woman, it prohibits the procedure in most cases before a woman knows she is pregnant.

Florida is among a handful of states where voters could approve a ballot initiative to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution this fall.

Scott has said that he would have also signed the state’s six-week abortion ban if he were still governor and that he plans to vote against the ballot initiative.

Scott has sought to get ahead of the Democratic criticism on the issue of reproductive rights. In one campaign ad, the senator shares his own family’s experience with in vitro fertilization, a flashpoint in the national debate over abortion rights.

“Millions of babies have come into this world through IVF, in vitro fertilization. In fact, our youngest daughter is receiving IVF treatments right now, hoping to expand her family. She and I both agree, IVF must be protected for our family, for every family,” Scott says in the ad.

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