At Turning Point’s annual gathering, young conservatives fret about the future

Phoenix (CNN) — At 23, Caleb Gasca has checked off several traditional markers of adulthood. He graduated college, found a job in a construction office and got married.

But living with his wife’s parents in San Bernardino County, California, he still feels as though his life has yet to fully begin.

“It’s really irritating that in the area I grew up in, that my family lives, that I can’t afford to live there,” he said in between speakers at AmericaFest, Turning Point USA’s annual gathering of young conservatives.

As a candidate, President Donald Trump harnessed the angst of millions of young Americans like Gasca to win a surprising share of Millennial and Gen Z voters. Their role in his victory was celebrated last December at AmericaFest after Turning Point USA proved instrumental in Trump’s courtship of young people

“The golden age of America is upon us,” Trump declared from the stage.

But this year, the mood inside AmericaFest is far more unsettled. The loss of Charlie Kirk, the charismatic activist who founded Turning Point USA and was killed in September by a gunman, has cast a grim pall over the event and left an unmistakable void in the movement. Meanwhile, many of the promises Trump made to the group last year — including “lower prices,” an end to foreign wars and “generational change” — have yet to materialize. Prices remain high, foreign entanglements are expanding and young people are deeply pessimistic about their future.

In a dozen conversations with CNN, AmericaFest attendees expressed mixed views of Trump’s return to Washington and the world they are just entering. Some remain optimistic that Trump will find a way to improve their lives — that his immigration crackdown will create jobs and lower housing costs, his energy policies will lower gas prices and electric bills and his dismantling of the Department of Education will end the cycle of college debt.

“We’re only one year into this administration,” said Chloe Szot, a 27-year-old California teacher.

Others are less willing to wait.

Gasca told CNN, “Unless something changes, I plan not to vote, at least for president, in 2028.”

A tougher road to adulthood

For many of AmericaFest’s young attendees, the new realities of American life are settling in.

While Szot believes homeownership remains within reach for her generation, it’s with a caveat that previous middle-class generations didn’t always have to consider.

“I think 100% I will be able to buy a house, but it also depends on where you live,” she said.

Luke Phelps is starting a family soon in the Phoenix area, and the 25-year-old said he and his wife expect to continue working. It’s a reality that couples are increasingly confronting — both spouses now work in about half of households in a country where two-thirds of $100,000 earners told The Harris Poll they’re just getting by.

“Nothing’s going to be the same as it always has,” Phelps said. “One income was great. Now you need two, right? Obviously you count it as sad, but every generation deals with something.”

The road to adulthood once followed a familiar path: move out of the parental home, find a spouse, get a job and have kids. Today, fewer than a quarter of Americans had reached all four milestones by age 34, according to the US Census Bureau. Homeownership remains elusive as well. Earlier this year, the National Association of Realtors reported that the median age of a first-time homebuyer had reached 40, the highest on record.

The generation entering adulthood also faces new pressures their parents did not. More teenagers acknowledge they spend too much time on social media and expressed concern about its effects on their mental health, according to an April Pew Research Center study. The Harvard Kennedy Institute of Politics found in a recent poll that adults under 30 are three times more likely to believe artificial intelligence will take away opportunities from them than create them.

“You don’t want to start college and get through it and the job that you wanted isn’t there anymore,” said Tyler Osbon, a 19-year-old college student from West Monroe, Louisiana. “It’s definitely getting harder to see what you want to do with your life, and then, is that going to be enough to support you in the future?”

With Kirk’s help, Trump’s campaign appeared far more attuned with how this generation, particularly young men, had internalized their struggles, said John Della Volpe, director of polling at Harvard. Trump tailored his message to those anxieties and promised a way out. The results were undeniable: Trump saw a 7-point jump in support from voters under 30 from 2020 to 2024, according to CNN exit polls, the largest increase of any age group.

But one year into Trump’s return to Washington, “doomerism” has become a prevailing sentiment among young people. Just 13 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds believe the country is headed in the right direction, the Harvard poll found. It’s a reality that is increasingly flashing warnings for Trump and Republicans heading into the midterms.

“Over the last decade it’s been incredibly challenging for people to feel good about the direction of the country especially among Gen Z, which has never seen America united or at its greatest,” said Della Volpe.

‘Young people are angry’

Kirk, who spent a decade connecting with high school and college-age voters, warned that the status quo was not sustainable and would have electoral ramifications for Republicans. In one of his final interviews, he accused his party and its donors of being “blind to the suffering” of the young people who helped deliver Trump’s victory and a Senate majority.

“They should be saying, ‘Thank you, younger voters,’” Kirk said.

Will Denton, a 27-year-old working in commercial real estate, agreed with Kirk’s concerns. Standing under a mural of the slain leader at AmericaFest, Denton said it will take “lots of little, little Charlie Kirks that are activated by his” example to enact change.

“I don’t think (Republicans) are doing enough,” Denton said. “Young people are angry, young people are frustrated, and young people are succumbing to another scourge on our society, which is a message of systemic conspiracy against you.”

The antidote, Kirk contended before he could more widely press the case, was policy aimed at giving young people a path to the American dream. If Republicans continued to apply the “pull yourself up by the bootstraps” philosophy that had guided conservative governance for decades, Kirk predicted that the GOP would squander its hard-won advantage with young voters.

“Even if you don’t care about them, you’re not going to like the politics that comes,” he said.

There are already signs of a slide back to the left. In governor races in Virginia and New Jersey, young people overwhelmingly backed Democrats, exit polls found. Democrats now hold a 13-point edge over Republicans among young people asked which party should control Congress after 2026, according to the Harvard poll.

Many young voters say they plan to express their dissatisfaction by sitting out the next election. While that sentiment is strongest among independents, apathy is more pronounced among Republicans than Democrats. Only half of young people who voted for Trump in 2024 said they definitely plan to vote in 2026, compared to 66 percent of Kamala Harris’ young voters.

Divisions remain, though, over whether Trump should attempt to win over the generation with more targeted policies. Conservative commentator Ben Shapiro delivered a different message to young people on Thursday: “Get off your ass and go do the thing.”

“Finish high school, get a job, get married, have kids, go to church. Those are all in your control,” he said from a studio at AmericaFest. “You pretending those things are not in your control is grievance culture BS.”

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