Trump says Ukraine peace deal is ‘closer than ever’ after Berlin talks, but is it? Here are the key sticking points

(CNN) — The United States just wrapped up two days of talks with Ukrainian and European negotiators in Berlin, followed by more discussions among leaders in Europe – all of which ended with positive signals about a future peace agreement.

The talks focused on security guarantees for Ukraine to deter potential Russian aggression in the future, the issue of which – despite the positive statements – remains a key sticking point in the negotiations with Moscow. The other major stumbling block is the future of Ukraine’s Donbas region, which Russia is demanding Kyiv cedes control of as a condition of the deal.

World leaders on Monday night touted “significant progress.” Germany said there was a small but real chance for an agreement soon, also floating the idea of a truce during the Christmas period, and US President Donald Trump said that “we’re closer now than we have been.” But where do things actually stand?

What happened at the talks in Berlin?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his chief negotiator Rustem Umerov met with Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, and Jared Kushner, the US leader’s son-in-law, in the German capital. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also joined the talks, in which the negotiators worked through the latest iteration of the US-backed peace plan.

“This does not mean that we now have a perfect plan, but it is a very workable version,” Zelensky told reporters in Berlin. “The Americans want a swift resolution; we care about maintaining quality even at this pace. If speed and quality coincide, we are fully on board.”

Zelensky said Tuesday that he worked with the US “in great detail on documents that could stop the war and guarantee security” during the peace talks. “Every single detail matters because not a single detail must become a reward for Russia’s aggression,” he told the Dutch parliament in The Hague.

There are now five separate documents under discussion within the proposed peace deal – they include “legally binding” security guarantees that would be voted on by the US Congress, as well as plans for funding Ukraine’s post-war recovery.

The leaders of the European Union, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom gathered in Berlin for separate discussions, after which they committed to working together with the US to “provide robust security guarantees and economic recovery support measures for Ukraine.”

The Kremlin said Tuesday that it had not yet seen the text of the latest proposals ⁠for the NATO-style security guarantees for Ukraine.

“We want peace; we don’t want a truce to give Ukraine a breathing space and prepare for the continuation of the war. We want to stop this war and achieve our goals, secure our interests, and guarantee peace in Europe for the future,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in response to a question about the viability of a ‘Christmas truce.’

What measures did European leaders outline?

The commitments outlined in the European joint statement included:

• A European-led “multinational force Ukraine” with troop contributions from allies within the Coalition of the Willing and “supported by the US.” That force will assist in securing Ukraine’s skies and seas “including through operating inside Ukraine.”
• A US-led ceasefire monitoring mechanism, which would include international participation.
• “Significant support to Ukraine to build its armed forces, which should remain at a peacetime level of 800,000.”
• Future investment in Ukraine, which would include trade agreements and “making major resources available for recovery and reconstruction.” The statement added: “In this vein, Russian sovereign assets in the European Union have been immobilised.”

Will Russia agree?

That’s the big question. The Kremlin has said it opposes any scenario that involves the deployment of NATO military troops in Ukraine.

The Russian government has previously gone as far as insisting that Ukraine enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO or have forces from the transatlantic military alliance stationed within its borders. In November, Moscow also demanded that Kyiv face a cap on its armed forces.

US officials claim that roughly 90% of the issues between Russia and Ukraine have been solved, describing the issue of territorial concessions as a key sticking point.

One US official said their side offered “thought-provoking” ideas on how to resolve that impasse, including the development of a free economic zone in parts of the Donbas.

The US negotiating team has proposed that such a zone would be a demilitarized area, which Ukraine would withdraw from, but Russia forces would not enter. But it’s unclear if Russian President Vladimir Putin would back down from his maximalist war aims to agree to that.

Ukraine has raised questions about who would manage that zone, and who would ensure troop withdrawals are reciprocal.

“The Americans are trying to find a compromise… I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of the Russian Federation. These are essential features for me in any format regarding Donbas,” Zelensky said Monday, adding that Ukraine will not recognize the temporarily occupied part of the eastern Donbas region as legally or de-facto Russian.

US officials described the security guarantees as “Article 5-like,” referring to the NATO treaty principle that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all. The officials declined to go into specifics of what the US role would entail, beyond saying it would not include US boots on the ground in Ukraine.

“Before we leave the battlefield, we have to be absolutely sure what these security guarantees are,” Zelensky said.

What are the next steps?

Zelensky is continuing his diplomatic discussions, with a visit to the Netherlands on Tuesday to discuss compensation from Russia for the damage it has caused during the war.

“The talks are not only about a ceasefire but about security guarantees,” Zelensky said. “This is not only physical security, it’s also about making Russia finally learn to live by the rule of law. It will only work if there is true accountability, if the punishment of the aggressor becomes inevitable.”

Trump, who phoned into Monday’s dinner meeting of European leaders, said “things are seemingly going well, but we’ve been saying that for a long time, and it’s a difficult one.” He said the call was “very good,” and that he had a “long talk” with Zelensky, also noting that the US had been in touch with Putin.

“I think we’re closer now than we have been, ever, and we’ll see what we can do,” Trump said Monday in the Oval Office. “The problem is they’ll [Russia] want to get it ended, and then all of a sudden they won’t, and Ukraine will want to get it ended, and all of a sudden they won’t. So, we have to get them on the same page.”

CNN’s Christian Edwards, Victoria Butenko, Kevin Liptak and Anna Chernova contributed to this report.

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