Is India about to make Ozempic-like weight-loss drugs a whole lot cheaper?

Mumbai, India (CNN) — On any given morning in Mumbai’s Shivaji Park, power-walkers circle the running track, fitness watches buzzing with every step. Minutes later, some drift toward nearby food stalls, where oil sizzles and hot samosas and syrupy jalebis land on paper plates. It’s a snapshot of India’s uneasy relationship with health and indulgence – and the backdrop to a fast-growing medical and commercial frenzy.

That frenzy is over the imminent expiry of a patent protecting semaglutide, a protein that mimics a hormone telling your brain that you’re not hungry. It’s a key ingredient in Novo Nordisk’s wildly popular injectable weight-loss drug Ozempic.

Novo Nordisk’s India patent will expire in March. And the country’s colossal pharma production industry is gearing up to take advantage by selling generic versions.

Analysts there predict a price war that could drive the cost of some weight-loss drugs down by as much as 90 percent in India – and possibly in other countries too. Jefferies, the investment bank, describes it as a “magic pill moment” for India, projecting that the semaglutide market could grow to $1 billion.

“We are fully prepared and geared up,” Namit Joshi, chairman of the government’s Pharmaceuticals Export Promotion Council of India (Pharmexcil), told CNN. “There will be a bombardment of this product the moment the patent expires.”

Just as India – known as the “pharmacy of the world” – helped make HIV drugs cheaper and more widely available decades ago, analysts say it could become the key, low-cost supplier of a new global health revolution against obesity.

The shift could also be transformative for India, currently the world’s diabetes capital and among the fastest-growing markets on the planet for anti-obesity treatments and drugs. By 2050, 450 million adults in India are projected to be overweight, according to an estimate in medical journal The Lancet.

Semaglutide mimics a hormone that regulates appetite and blood sugar – essentially, it tells your brain you’re full. It’s the core part of popular commercially available anti-obesity drugs like Ozempic, which is often sold pre-loaded into a syringe that patients self-inject with.

It’s a method India’s pharma giants are confident they can replicate, come March.

At least 10 Indian firms, including Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, Cipla, and OneSource Specialty Pharma have started processes to manufacture semaglutide weight-loss drugs, according to documents reviewed by CNN.

OneSource says it is investing nearly $100 million as part of plans to ramp up production capacity by five times over the next 18 to 24 months, particularly for drug-device combination products – things like syringes prepped with weight-loss drugs, including semaglutide.

Another Indian company, Biocon, told CNN it has commissioned an injectables facility in the city of Bengaluru, designed to serve both domestic and international markets, with a total investment of around $100 million.

The firm is hoping to launch the products in 2027, CEO Siddharth Mittal added, and has plans to export to Brazil and Canada.

Rival firm Dr. Reddy’s told Reuters it plans to launch the generic version of semaglutide in 87 countries, including India, next year. Its CEO Erez Israeli said he expects the generic drug to generate “hundreds of millions of dollars” in sales for the company.

Pharmexcil’s Joshi believes the average price of a monthly dose in India could fall to $77 within a year after the patent’s expiry, and eventually to around $40.

That kind of pricing wont be seen on US shelves anytime soon – Ozempic’s US patent doesn’t expire until the 2030s.

At 70 years old, Mahesh Chamadia had almost given up on the idea of losing weight. The Mumbai accountant wakes at 4:30 a.m. for badminton, keeps a treadmill at home, and has tried gyms, diets, and yoga. But the weight always came back. After 25 years of trying, he needed to find a solution, and fast. “I did not want to carry this heavy weight as I got older and older,” he told CNN.

Then, in 2024 Chamadia started reading about a new class of injectable drugs making headlines abroad. Every week, he scoured the papers for updates. At his checkups, he would quiz his doctor: When are they coming to India?

By March 2025, when Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide (sold under the brand name Mounjaro) hit Indian pharmacies, he was first in line. “I told my doctor, I want to try it,” he recalls.

Nine months later, he’s 10 kilograms (22 pounds) lighter – more than he’s lost in decades. His blood sugar sometimes dips to 100, the unicorn number for diabetics, something he says has “never happened in his history of 25 years of diabetes.”

His triglycerides – the most common type of body fat – fell for the first time, his energy surged, and even his cravings reduced. “Every Sunday for 25 years I brought samosas home after badminton. Now I don’t. My cravings have become negligible.”

According to research firm Pharmarack, Mounjaro has quickly risen to become India’s second-largest pharmaceutical brand in September 2025 – just six months after its launch. A boom in weight-loss drug sales has transformed Eli Lilly into a Wall Street heavyweight, its stock up more than 35% this year and its market value recently crossing $1 trillion.

The medicine doesn’t come cheap. Chamadia says he spends around 25,000 Indian rupees ($280) per month on his injections – more than the salary of many workers.

“Yes, it is expensive,” he says, “but it doesn’t matter too much. My insulin doses have come down, some of my other diabetes medicines have reduced.”

These drugs are not without risks. According to the website of Wegovy, another popular brand, the most common side effects include nausea, diarrhea, vomiting, constipation, abdominal pain, and headaches.

And in a country where Bollywood stars and social media influencers heavily shape body image, doctors worry the drugs could be misused.

Some clinics have already started advertising these injections as part of pre-wedding crash slimming programs to help brides or grooms get into shape quickly for their big day.

“Whenever you have a surge in demand, especially with weight-loss drugs, there is bound to be misuse,” obesity specialist Dr. Rajiv Kovil told CNN.

“These are not meant for cosmetic slimming before a wedding or a party,” he cautioned.

“The management of obesity comes as a package; semaglutide is just one tool,” said Dr. Atul Luthra, endocrinologist at Fortis Hospital, near the capital New Delhi.

“Regular physical activity and a proper diet not only improve the efficacy of semaglutide but also help with its tolerability. If people don’t follow the required dietary precautions, they will experience more stomach and intestine-related side effects.”

Back in his doctor’s office, Chamadia scrolls on his phone, scanning news alerts about the soon-to-launch higher-dose injection pens. “It should have arrived in India by now,” he says, glancing at the doctor. For him, each delivery is more than a prescription refill – it’s a measure of progress, of finally gaining control over his health.

Doctors, meanwhile, are bracing for a flood of new patients seeking the injections – some, like Chamadia, who medically qualify, and others drawn by the lure of a quick fix.

For doctors and policymakers, the countdown will carry a different urgency: whether this new era of weight-loss drugs can meaningfully tackle an obesity epidemic projected to engulf nearly half a billion Indians, or whether it will leave the country chasing a solution in a syringe while ignoring the harder work of changing diets and lifestyles.

Chamadia, for one, is convinced. He is already urging his 38-year-old son, who is also struggling with obesity and diabetes, to join him in injecting appetite-suppressing drugs.

“This is not only about weight loss,” Chamadia insists. “It is about controlling everything else – sugar, fatty liver, lipids.”

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