C. Oregon jobless rates still low, but job growth stalls

Just looking at Central Oregon’s July still-low jobless rates, out Tuesday, would indicate an economy that’s stable and humming along. But the state’s regional economist said newly revised payroll figures make clear that a ” dramatic slowdown ” in job growth has hit this year, with some sectors seeing fewer jobs than a year ago

” Previous monthly estimates for 2019 were revised using payroll tax records, ” Regional Economist Damon Runberg said. ” These revisions confirmed the dramatic slowdown in employment growth over the past year. In addition to slower job growth for many industries, we are beginning to see some industries post job losses over the past year, due to a notable reduction in labor demand.

” The regional economy continues to expand, ” Runberg added, ” but our levels of growth are very slow with employment totals not significantly different from this time last year. ”

Here’s Runberg’s full report for the month:

Recent revisions using payroll tax records confirmed the hiring slowdown across the region. Employment levels are largely unchanged across the region, with industry employment losses over the past year becoming more prevalent. Despite an uptick in industry employment losses, the unemployment levels remain near historic lows.

Crook County: The unemployment rate was 5.6 percent in July, which is largely unchanged from 5.7 percent in June. The rate was 5.9 percent this time last year.

C rook County shed 50 jobs in July, a normal drop for this time of year driven by seasonal losses in local government education.

Recent revisions lowered Crook County’s employment growth over the past year. The employment situation is largely unchanged, with the county only adding around 30 jobs from last July (+0.5%).

There continued to be job gains in information, professional and business services, and manufacturing. These gains were largely balanced by losses in leisure and hospitality and education and health services.

Deschutes County (Bend-Redmond MSA ): The unemployment rate was 4.2 percent in July, which is unchanged from June and unchanged from this time last year.

Deschutes County shed 160 jobs in July, fewer losses than typically expected this time of year. Once again, these losses were largely due to summer break beginning for the region’s schools.

After revising employment totals using payroll tax records, the pace of hiring in Deschutes County was even slower than initially estimated. The county added around 600 jobs over the past year, which was less than 1 percent growth from July 2018.

Industry job losses over the past year are becoming more widespread, with employment levels down in professional and business services (-500 jobs), leisure and hospitality (-190), manufacturing (-140), information (-90), and construction (-70). These losses were overcome by gains in health care, local government education and retail trade.

Jefferson County: The unemployment rate remained largely unchanged at 5.4 percent in July from 5.5 percent in June. The rate was 5.3 percent this time last year.

Jefferson County lost 90 jobs in July, fairly typical losses for this time of year due to local education summer break.

Employment levels are down by around 60 jobs from this time last year (-1%). Job losses were concentrated in professional and business services and Indian tribal government. There continues to be notable job growth in manufacturing.

Next Press Releases

The Oregon Employment Department plans to release the August county and metropolitan area unemployment rates on Tuesday, September 24 th and the statewide unemployment rate and employment survey data for August on Tuesday, September 17 th .