Forecasters expect depression to become Tropical Storm Debby as it nears Florida’s Gulf Coast

MIAMI (AP) — A tropical depression moving into the Gulf of Mexico is growing better organized, forecasters said Saturday, and is likely to bring drenching rain and coastal flooding to much of Florida’s Gulf Coast.

The storm strengthened into a tropical depression late Friday, and is expected to become a tropical storm by Saturday night, once it has maximum sustained winds of 39 mph (63 kph) or more. If the depression reaches tropical storm status, it would be named Debby, the fourth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Circulation was centered about 15 miles (25 kilometers) west of Havana on Saturday afternoon, but associated wind and thunderstorms were spread out over a broad region, including southern and central Florida, the Florida Keys and the Bahamas.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami forecasts that the depression will strengthen as it curves northward off the southwest Florida coast, where the water has been extremely warm, with temperatures approaching 92 degrees Fahrenheit (33 Celsius) this week.

System expected to come ashore as a tropical storm

Predictions show the system could come ashore as strong tropical storm or hurricane on Monday and cross over northern Florida into the Atlantic Ocean, where it’s likely to remain a tropical storm threatening Georgia and the Carolinas early next week. Tropical storm warnings are posted for most of Florida’s West Coast and the Dry Tortugas.

A hurricane watch is posted for parts of the Big Bend and Florida Panhandle, recognizing that there is a chance that Debby could reach hurricane status before coming ashore.

A warning means storm conditions are expected within 36 hours, while a watch means that storm effects are possible within 48 hours.

Tropical storms and hurricanes can trigger river flooding and overwhelm drainage systems and the region’s canals. Forecasters are warning of 5 to 10 inches (125 mm to 250 mm) of rain, which could create “locally considerable” flash and urban flooding. Forecasters are already warning of moderate flooding for some rivers along Florida’s West Coast.

Some of the heaviest rains could actually come next week in a region along the Atlantic Coast from Jacksonville, Florida, north through coastal regions of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. The storm is expected to slow down after making landfall.

“We could see a stall or a meandering motion around coastal portions of the southeastern United States,” National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said in a Saturday briefing. “So that’s going to exacerbate not just the rainfall risk, but also the potential for storm surge and some strong winds.”

Flat Florida is prone to flooding even on sunny days when so-called king tides surge in coastal areas, and the storm is predicted to push up storm tides of 2 to 4 feet (0.6 to 1.2 meters) along most of Florida’s Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay, with a higher tide of 3 to 5 feet predicted farther north in Florida’s sparsely populated Big Bend region.

Forecasters issued a storm surge warning on Saturday, saying there’s “a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation” in a region that includes Hernando Beach, Crystal River, Steinhatchee and Cedar Key. Citrus County officials ordered a mandatory evacuation of coastal areas.

A tropical storm warning was posted for the southern end of the Florida Keys, and multiple wind gusts above 45 mph (72 kph were recorded). On Saturday morning, conditions were windy and squally on Long Key, but Scott Battle, operator of Florida Boy Bar and Grill, pronounced things as “fine.”

“It’s spitting off and on and blowing a little, but not too bad,” he said by phone.

Preparations are underway in Florida to guard against flooding

People in some Florida cities on Friday filled sandbags to protect against possible flooding. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for most Florida counties, extending from the Florida Keys up through Central Florida and the Tampa Bay region and into the western Panhandle.

Christina Lothrop is the general manager at Blue Pelican Marina in Hernando Beach, a barrier island about 50 miles (80 kilometers) north of St. Petersburg. She said Saturday still seemed like a regular summer day, with the public ramp across the street jammed with people launching boats.

“Today it’s kind of normal, which is kind of weird,” Lothrop told The Associated Press by telephone.

On the other hand, Lothrop said workers at her marina have been getting ready for the storm since Tuesday. They’re securing boats stored on racks, stowing away tool boxes, and tying everything down.

“Right now what we’re doing is mostly tying up boats,” she said, saying no boats would be left in the water to prevent them coming untied and drifting away or causing damage.

Before the marina store closes Saturday, Lothrop said she will lift computers off the floor and sandbag and tape doors. Last year’s Hurricane Idalia pushed about a foot of water (30 centimeters) into the store.

On Friday, crews pulled floating cranes away from a bridge construction project across Tampa Bay, lashing together 74 barges and 24 floating cranes and anchoring them until the storm passes, project engineer Marianne Brinson told the Tampa Bay Times. Crews also laid down cranes on land on their sides.

For some Floridians, the name Debby summons bad memories of a 2012 tropical storm of the same name that caused $250 million in losses and eight deaths, including seven in the Sunshine State. That storm dumped torrential rains up the Florida Gulf Coast into northern Florida, including an astronomical 29 inches (730 mm) at a location south of Tallahassee.

Rick Falkenstein, who owns Hurricane Seafood Restaurant in St. Pete Beach, told WTSP-TV that he remembers “the high tides, the flooding” from that storm.

Pinellas County paused a $5 million beach renourishment project necessitated in part by erosion from past storms.

Meanwhile, far off Mexico’s western coast, Hurricane Carlotta continued moving westward, deeper into the Pacific Ocean on Saturday, with top sustained winds reaching 90 mph (145 kph). The hurricane center said Carlotta may strengthen a little more, but should begin losing strength on Sunday as it moves into an area of unfavorable winds and drier air. The storm is likely to dissipate into a remnant of thunderstorms in three to four days. No watches or warnings are in effect.