Here’s what could get significantly more expensive under Trump’s tariff plan

New York (CNN) — Import taxes are set to spike under the incoming Trump administration, forcing Americans to pay more for everything from foreign-made sneakers and toys to food, according to new research.

The items that are most vulnerable to price spikes from President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs are ones that currently have low tariffs and those that mostly come from China, the Peterson Institute for International Economics found in a Thursday paper shared first with CNN.

“The only certainty is that new tariffs will be costly for the United States,” the researchers concluded.

For example, the biggest import tax burden would fall on machinery, electronics and electrical machinery, according to the Peterson Institute analysis of current trade flows and tariff rates.

That’s because these goods are disproportionately sourced from China and currently enjoy low tariff rates.

On the campaign trail, Trump proposed ramping up tariffs to 60% on China and imposing tariffs of up to 20% on all $3 trillion of US imports.

Since winning election, Trump has vowed to slap immediate tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico. It’s part of the president-elect’s high-risk, high-reward strategy to use import taxes to pressure nations to address major problems like drug trafficking and illegal immigration.

It’s too early to say whether Trump will actually impose these tariffs or if agreements can be reached to prevent them.

“In his first term, President Trump instituted tariffs against China that created jobs, spurred investment, and resulted in no inflation,” Karoline Leavitt, Trump-Vance transition spokeswoman, said in a statement to CNN. “President Trump will work quickly to fix and restore an economy that puts American workers first by re-shoring American jobs, lowering inflation, raising real wages, lowering taxes, cutting regulations, and unshackling American energy.”

From autos to avocados

The Peterson Institute analysis found that consumers will face higher costs for imported goods, including electrical devices, toys and sporting goods. And businesses will be subject to new taxes to import transportation equipment, chemicals and other items.

Toys and footwear are particularly exposed to Trump’s tariff threats.

A staggering 99% of shoes sold in the United States are imported, according to the Footwear Distributors & Retailers of America, a trade group that represents Nike, Steve Madden, Cole Haan and other footwear brands.

More than half (56%) of shoes sold in the United States are made in China, the trade group said.

The United States is also reliant on China for toys and sporting equipment, including items such as footballs, soccer balls and baseballs. The United States gets 75% of its imported toys and sports equipment from China.

China’s “dominant position” in toymaking would be difficult to replicate in a way that meets US product safety standards, the Peterson Institute research found.

“A 60% tariff (on China) almost certainly will be felt directly by American households,” researchers Julieta Contreras, Mary Lovely and Jing Yan wrote in the paper.

Trump’s proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada would have the biggest impact on prices for autos, vegetables, fuel, prepared food and animal products, the Peterson Institute found.

The United States relies on Mexico for 89% of its imported avocados and 91% of foreign-grown tomatoes, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

“Higher tariffs on Mexico and Canada will…put upward pressure on US food prices,” the Peterson Institute paper said.

On the campaign trail, Trump vowed to make prices plunge and stressed that his tariff plan would not reignite inflation.

However, during a recent NBC interview Trump declined to guarantee that American families won’t pay more due to his tariffs.

“I can’t guarantee anything. I can’t guarantee tomorrow,” Trump said. “But I can say that…I had a lot of tariffs on a lot of different countries, but in particular China. We took in hundreds of billions of dollars and we had no inflation.”

(There was inflation during the first Trump administration, but it was not unusually high.)

Yet mainstream economists continue to warn that ultimately consumers will pay more because of tariffs.

Target, Wal-Mart, AutoZone, Columbia Sportswear and other companies have already suggested they will likely pass along the cost of higher tariffs to consumers in the form of higher prices.

The Peterson Institute paper found that the “ultimate impact” on prices will be decided by import demand and supply shifts but noted that there is “resounding evidence of complete pass-throughs of tariffs to importers” during the US-China trade war.

“American consumers and firms will bear the effect of higher tariffs, with substantial cost for the average American household, and a burden that falls more heavily on lower income households,” the Peterson Institute researchers concluded.

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