March meltdown: Historic low snowpack hits Central Oregon and the West, raising water supply concerns

BEND, Ore. (KTVZ) -- Central Oregon is facing a historic snowpack collapse this spring, as record-low snow water equivalent (SWE) levels across the West signal a potentially dire water supply situation.

Snowpack depth and water content typically peak around April 1, making SWE on this date a key indicator of spring runoff. This year, Oregon, along with Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming, set new record-low April 1 SWE values since SNOTEL monitoring began in the 1980s. California recorded its second-lowest SWE value on the same date.

Normally, March brings snow accumulation, but this year a record-breaking heat wave and abnormally dry conditions caused rapid, early melting of an already low snowpack across much of the West. Exceptions include parts of Washington, Idaho, and Montana. California’s river basins also experienced their driest March on record.

The Colorado River Basin, including both Upper and Lower sections, recorded its warmest March on record, averaging 13.7°F above normal. Across the West, peak SWE occurred 21–34 days earlier than average, with some basins even earlier—for example, the Upper Pecos and South Platte Rivers peaked 55 and 40 days early, respectively. Only a few Western basins reported near-normal peak SWE dates.

Low snowpack and early melting increase the likelihood of record-low spring and summer runoff volumes. In the Colorado River Basin, many forecast points are expected to produce less than 30% of average runoff. The effects may also be felt in the Missouri and Mississippi River Basins, where consecutive years of low flows have already disrupted navigation.

The Climate Prediction Center’s April–June outlook forecasts continued warmth across the West and dry conditions in parts of the region. Much of the West is entering its climatologically warm and dry period, and any relief will depend on late spring storms and the monsoon season. Drought conditions and water impacts are expected to worsen.

Critical sectors such as agriculture, energy production, and recreation are already feeling impacts and are likely to face further challenges into summer. Areas most affected include the Pacific Northwest, the Rio Grande Basin, and the Colorado River Basin; regions experiencing multiple years of drought and snow droughts, entering the season with water storage deficits that are expected to worsen.

For Central Oregon residents, this historic low snowpack serves as a warning about potential water shortages, changes to river flows, and the broader impacts on recreation and local agriculture as the spring and summer progress.

Read more of this report on drought.gov.