Decision 2024: Clackamas County voter shift appears to be key in Bynum’s projected win over Chavez-DeRemer

BEND, Ore. (KTVZ)-- In what could be a historic win, The Oregonian is projecting Democrat Janelle Bynum to win her race in Oregon's Fifth Congressional District, making her the first black member of Congress from our state.

That means the seat has now flipped, bringing Democrats closer to a House majority. Voters in Clackamas, Multnomah and Deschutes counties voted overwhelmingly for Bynum. Meanwhile, a majority of voters in Linn, Jefferson and Marion counties voted for incumbent Rep.. Lori Chavez-Deremer.

Clackamas County appeared to be the deciding factor in this election, with a major shift of almost 9,000 votes so far to Bynum, according to the Secretary of State. Chavez-Deremer only lost that county in 2022 to Democrat Jamie McLeod Skinner by 2,000 votes.

Political analyst and Pacific University professor Jim Moore said Friday, "There's usually higher voter turnout in a presidential election year. And so people were coming out to vote for the presidential year. Harris won in Clackamas County. And so this just goes down the ballot."

The race has been one of the most contentious (and high-spending) congressional races in the country. Both candidates spent much of their time campaigning in Deschutes County, leading all the way up to Election Day. The last time a Democrat held this position was in 2020.

"Every win for the Democrats helps right now," Moore said

"There's about 25 races that are still out there and haven't been called. It looks like actually the Republicans will probably hold onto their majority, but it also set things up very well for the Democrats for the off-year elections two years from now to pick up seats and take the majority and run the House of Representatives."