Blinken heads to Egypt but not Israel with prospects for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal bleak

(CNN) — US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will return to Egypt on Wednesday but his visit to the region will notably omit a stop in Israel, amid rising doubts that a ceasefire and hostage deal can be agreed to before President Joe Biden leaves office.

This is the first time since the October 7 attacks that Blinken has visited the Middle East without visiting Israel. The top US diplomat typically uses the visits to Israel to press the Israeli government on the critical issues surrounding the war, including the hostage and ceasefire deal. However, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has frequently rebuffed the administration in the hours and days following those meetings.

At the time of Blinken’s last visit in August US officials were projecting public optimism that they could be close to bringing the deal to a close. Now, that public optimism around a quick resolution has largely vanished.

The State Department said in their announcement that Blinken “will meet with Egyptian officials to discuss ongoing efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza that secures the release of all hostages, alleviates the suffering of the Palestinian people, and helps establish broader regional security.” He will also “co-chair the opening of the U.S.-Egypt Strategic Dialogue with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty,” the statement said, noting that the “strategic dialogue aims to strengthen the bilateral relationship and deepen economic development, as well as increase people-to-people ties through culture and education.”

Egypt is a critical player in the ongoing efforts to reach that bridging proposal, but Blinken’s trip is unlikely to yield a major breakthrough on the agreement that comes down to the political will of two men: Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. There is skepticism that either wants to reach a deal.

US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield notably said on Monday that an agreement is ultimately dependent on political will.

“We continue to work with Egypt and Qatar to find a way forward in the negotiations that will be acceptable to both parties. But as hard as we are going to work on texts and creative formulas, this is ultimately a question of political will,” Thomas-Greenfield said.

While Blinken is in Egypt this week the families of the US hostages held by Hamas will be visiting Washington, DC, as they continue pushing urgently for a deal to release their loved ones.

But any timeframe for next steps remains elusive. The US proposal to find a solution to bridge the differences between Israel and Hamas has yet to be presented to both sides and when that will happen remains unclear, despite US officials claiming earlier this month that it was near completion.

“We will offer this detailed proposal, I hope in the coming days, and then we’ll see,” said CIA director Bill Burns on September 7.

The US accused Hamas of adding “new demands” to the existing proposal after the murder of six hostages in their custody in Gaza. US officials have not publicly detailed those new demands.

Netanyahu has also been accused of adding new conditions to the negotiations.

The last time Blinken visited Israel, he said that Netanyahu had agreed to the “bridging proposal” meant to close to close the remaining gaps with Hamas. But the next day, Netanyahu reportedly told hostage families that Israel would never leave the Philadelphi corridor – a key aspect of a deal – in comments a senior administration official pushed back on as “maximalist statements” that are “not constructive to getting a ceasefire deal across the finish line.”

Less than two weeks later – after six hostages were executed by Hamas – Netanyahu said there was no deal in the making.

Still, US officials have been reticent to directly criticize Netanyahu despite his unhelpful public comments.

Blinken said earlier this month that “it’s incumbent on both parties” – Israel and Hamas – “to get to yes” on the “remaining issues” related to a ceasefire and hostage deal.

But last week Sinwar wrote a rare letter to Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, according to the Lebanese militant group, in which he reaffirmed his commitment to fighting Israel. And Netanyahu’s comments earlier this month that there is “not a deal in the making” served as a major rebuke of the Biden administration’s claims that an agreement is nearly finished.

A senior Biden administration official said earlier this month that the majority of the details of the first phase of the agreement had been worked out. The remaining sticking points, they said, are related to the withdrawal of Israeli forces within Gaza away from populated areas and the exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners.

Blinken said last week: “we’re down to a handful of issues – not even a handful of issues – that are hard but fully resolvable, in our judgment.”

“Right now, we’re working intensely with our Egyptian and Qatari counterparts to work together to bridge any remaining gaps.  And in the coming time, very soon, we’ll put that before the parties and we’ll see what they say,” he said.

Blinken’s comments, however, echoed his sentiments for months. In late July, Blinken said that the talks were “inside the 10-yard line,” but also noted that the last 10 yards are “often the hardest.”

Recent comment by US officials have been careful to work in a dose of apprehension. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby on Thursday said the US was still working on the bridging proposal. He acknowledged that it remains unclear if “we’re going to be able to get there” on a deal.

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