Decision 2026: Post-debate voter reaction poll finds Diehl won the debate, but Bethell won the night

MONMOUTH, Ore. (KTVZ) -- Predict Oregon, an independent polling company, conducted a live voter-reaction poll after Thursday night's Oregon Republican gubernatorial debate and released its results Friday.

The organization said the results indicate a complex outcome for candidates, highlighting nuances beyond a simple winner-loser narrative.

Candidate Ed Diehl was perceived as the debate's top performer, while candidate Danielle Bethell saw a significant increase in voter support.

The poll showed Diehl was perceived as the debate winner by 47.3% of respondents. However, he experienced a net loss of 10 supporters after the debate.

Conversely, Bethell's support more than doubled, increasing from 10.9% to 22.7%, which represents a net gain of 13 supporters.

The poll also found that candidate Christine Drazan had a net change of negative three supporters and an electability score of 2.59 out of five.

Mark Anderson of Predict Oregon said Drazan is in danger of "effectively exiting the competitive tier." Candidate Dudley gained a net of three supporters, with Anderson noting his floor is sticky but his ceiling appears low.

The poll revealed striking Republican unity, with 89.3% of respondents indicating they would absolutely back the nominee and zero stating they would not.

Predict Oregon's analysis also suggested the data may reveal a "spiral of silence" phenomenon related to Bethell's hidden momentum, a finding noted in their full analysis.