The truth behind winter weather proverbs

Every year, as winter sets in across the Northern Hemisphere, people want to know what the coldest time of year will bring. The desire to know how much snow will build on across the Cascades or how cold the low valleys will get has spawned a lot of false weather “facts” that some believe provides insight into each approaching winter.

The first winter myth is based on pine cones scattered throughout the forest floor. It is argued that bigger pine cones are a sign the coming winter will be cold and harsh. The logic surmises that trees grow larger pine cones to protect the seeds within from a brutal season. It sounds reasonable, but in actuality the size of pine cones is dictated by weather conditions during the growing season. Not by the winter yet to arrive.

“Squirrels gathering nuts in a flurry, winter coming on in a hurry,” is a popular weather rhyme throughout the country. Here the idea is simple: If you see a squirrel gathering nuts and acorns when it’s snowing — instead of hiding in hibernation — then winter will start early for the coming year.

Like the pine cones, it’s another weather falsehood. Early-season snows do not have any standing on how bad or long the winter will be. In fact, Central Oregon had an early October snow in 2013, and the winter to follow was so dry, Hoodoo Ski Resort didn’t open until early 2014.

A popular and more local winter weather precursor is the idea that bountiful Mountain Ash Berry bushes found in the Pacific Northwest is a sure sign the coming snow will be heavy. Biologically speaking, there isn’t a way for the Rowan Tree to “know” snowpack in the Cascades will be high. A high berry yield only means the growing season was long. On the years you see plenty of Mountain Ash Berries, you can be confident that the summer was been warm and wet. But don’t put any confidence in the idea that the coming winter will see more snow than normal.

Finally, the most popular and most hotly defended weather-falsehood is what is printed in the Farmers’ Almanac, as well as the Old Farmer’s Almanac. Each year, both almanacs publish a winter forecast, and many people read, believe and defend the predictions within.

Neither of these entities can, or should, be taken seriously. The Farmers’ Almanac predictions, for example, are made many years in advance by a “weather prognosticator” operating under the pseudonym Caleb Weatherbee. The forecast depends on a secret formula using “sunspot activity, moon phases, tidal action, and more.”

This secrecy is a problem. Real scientific forecasts are public, so to be studied and scrutinized by others. Until the entire process by which the Almanac assembles its predictions is reviled, no one can be sure it is based off of empirical observations and therefore not reliable.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac also has a shroud of secrecy concerning its yearly predictions. Under close scrutiny, its track record is less than impressive. Brian MacMillan, an associate of the American Meteorological Society Oregon Chapter, looked at the Old Farmer’s Almanac from 2009 to 2013 and compared its winter predictions for the Pacific Northwest to what took place each winter. The almanac accuracy for temperatures and precipitation was only 23.7 percent.

In short, the list of weather folklore is endless, and nearly all of them are indicative of conditions during the summer before, and not the winter after. For a more serious look ahead at the coming winter, be sure to tune into NewsChannel 21 on Wednesday at 6 p.m. for meteorologists Bob Shaw’s and Travis Knudsen’s winter forecast for the 2014-2015 winter season — including just how much snow they expect.