Big Bend-Redmond car theft spike may be misleading

The numbers are startling, even shocking: A huge spike in car thefts in Deschutes County last year – up 63 percent – and the rate of car thefts per 100,000 residents soaring even higher, up a whopping 85 percent in just a year.

But as is often the case with such numbers, you have to look a bit deeper to see a clearer picture: Such statistics have some caveats, which can largely be explained in one comparison.

The Bend-Redmond metro area (defined as all of Deschutes County) recorded 218 car thefts last year, according to the National Insurance Crime Bureau. The Portland metro area, meanwhile, had a few more car thefts reported last year: 9,634.

“In terms of sheer numbers, the numbers don’t compare to Portland, for example,” said Kenton Brine, president of the Northwest Insurance Council, which listed those worrisome Bend-area statistics in a news release Tuesday. The figures are based on preliminary data from the FBI’s Uniform Crimes Report, which show car thefts up a relatively paltry 6.6 percent nationwide last year.

Medford also saw a significant rise in car thefts, up 27 percent, and the Portland-area figure represents a 24 percent jump. But Salem actually saw car thefts drop 5 percent last year, and they were down almost 2 percent in Grants Pass.

Looking over the Bend-area car theft data back to 2011, Brine said “it’s been pretty steady,” up 15 vehicles one year, down 15 the next, down again in 2015, but up from 134 to 218 in 2016.

“Clearly, when you are dealing with small numbers, you get a wider swing” from year to year, he said.

Brine said one reason for the rise is likely an improving economy: “More people on the road more, they got a gym membership and are parking there. Changes in people’s behavior can contribute to a rise like this.”

Bend police Lt. Clint Burleigh said the 2016 car-theft jump can be explained in part by the fact that “2015 was an abnormally low year,” with such crimes down about 30 percent from 2014.

“We had some large numbers from a specific theft ring that the Deschutes County Sheriff’s Office arrested several people on,” Burleigh said. “The problem is, without going into each case, it is tough to see when we have a stranger stealing a car, versus a known person taking a car and not returning it versus false reporting to hide criminal activity.”

Redmond police Lt. Curtis Chambers said the numbers appear accurate and that Redmond saw it’s reported auto thefts jump from 61 to 89 last year, an even-greater 68 percent rise.

But he also said there had been only 39 reported car thefts in the city so far this year, down more than 20 percent from the 49 reported by this time last year.

“A great many of these crimes are committed by the same person or small group of people,” Chambers wrote. “When an arrest(s) are made, they typically have a dramatic effect on the number of these crimes.”

Also, he noted, “Many of these people committing these crimes are more likely than not committing other crimes. If arrested, charged and jailed for other crimes, they are not committing vehicle thefts.”

Whatever the reality behind the numbers, the insurance council said a stolen car can be costly, especially if someone has only the state-required liability insurance that covers you if someone hits your car – and not the comprehensive coverage that covers not only a stolen car but damage from fire, a hail or windstorm or if you hit a deer.

“It’s not expensive, less than $15 for six months,” Brine said.

The FBI reports that vehicle theft is the nation’s No. 1 property crime, costing Americans nearly $5 billion in 2015. Last year, more than 13,000 vehicles were stolen in Oregon – that’s more than 36 vehicles a day and more than one stolen every hour. That means millions spent on car theft through insurance premiums.

The way to reduce the threat range from the simplest (and often not followed) measure – locking your car – to adding warning devices like light and sound alarm systems.