Opinion: How Haley and DeSantis could pull ahead in Iowa
(CNN) — To the long list of unprecedented things about this Republican presidential race, add two more: As the Iowa caucuses approach, the big question for politics-watchers may be not who will win on January 15, but who will place second. And groups backing the contenders for the runner-up spot — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley — have spent millions of dollars on ads targeting the rival for second, while making little effort to bring down the front-runner.
Although DeSantis and Haley have little chance to defeat former President Donald Trump in Iowa, both see a strong second-place finish as key to becoming the last person standing between Trump and the 2024 nomination. In addition, beating expectations in Iowa would signal potential for the 2028 campaign, when the GOP field could be wide open.
Recent polls of Iowa Republican caucus-goers put Haley and DeSantis in the teens, with the Florida governor slightly leading and with both well behind Trump. But late shifts in momentum are common in Iowa, so either candidate could finish well ahead of the other on caucus night.
Factors that could influence the outcome include:
CNN town hall
One thing I’ve learned observing many presidential candidates in Iowa: Voters are far less predictable than journalists. It’s likely Haley and DeSantis have rehearsed a sound bite (or a pivot) for any question a reporter may ask at a campaign event or televised forum. But you never know what a politically engaged audience member will bring up.
We saw that play out last week in New Hampshire. Unfortunately for Haley, she flubbed the question about the Civil War on an otherwise slow news day, meaning far more people saw the video, and more journalists covered the candidate’s awkward response and attempted clean-up.
So CNN’s back-to-back town halls with Haley and DeSantis in Des Moines on Thursday could be important — not only for the undecided caucus-goers who tune in live, but because many more voters will hear newsworthy sound bites later.
Gaffes go viral more often than clips of a candidate really nailing an answer. So above all else, DeSantis and Haley will want to avoid missteps. But they should also try to create mic-drop moments that their campaigns can promote on social media, or in a closing Iowa digital or television ad.
CNN debate
This cycle’s GOP debates have had a bit of a “kids’ table” feel. But with just Haley and DeSantis on stage (Trump will instead participate in a Fox News town hall), the CNN-hosted debate in Des Moines on January 10 could generate more interest and viewer engagement. It will be the last chance for Haley and DeSantis to reach a nationwide television audience before the caucuses, and they won’t have to fight for speaking time — or deal with Vivek Ramaswamy’s attention-seeking behavior.
A strong debate performance can win over undecided voters. Crucially, it also energizes those who have already committed to a candidate. Attending a caucus takes a lot longer than casting a ballot in a primary election. If you’re going out on a cold, dark January evening, you need to believe your candidate is worth the effort.
Conversely, a gaffe that leads to days of negative media coverage can demoralize supporters. Having been a precinct captain for Democratic candidates before the 2004 and 2008 Iowa caucuses, I know some people change their minds after promising to support a candidate, or simply don’t show up on caucus night.
Ground game
The pro-DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down claims to have trained hundreds of canvassers, who have knocked on hundreds of thousands of doors in Iowa, hoping to convince voters DeSantis is a better candidate than Trump.
Meanwhile, Haley’s campaign hired new Iowa staff last month and hopes to benefit from the field operation of the Koch-funded Americans for Prosperity Action, which endorsed Haley in November.
But let’s get real: AFP Action already spent millions of dollars last year on direct mail, digital ads and canvassers. Their drumbeat messages — Trump can’t beat Joe Biden, Trump has too much baggage — clearly fell flat with most potential Republican caucus-goers. AFP Action’s more recent mailings to Iowans have made a positive case for Haley. Whether they can move the needle for Trump-skeptic Republicans or independents is unclear.
Trump’s campaign appears to have the strongest Iowa ground game by far. At every recent rally he’s held here, speakers have explained the nuts and bolts of attending a caucus and made a pitch for attendees to sign up as “caucus captains.” Volunteers who are recruiting their own friends and neighbors are usually more effective than any paid canvasser who shows up at a stranger’s door.
Anecdotal accounts suggest DeSantis has lined up more campaign volunteers in Iowa than Haley. That could give him a slight advantage, if those people are motivated in the closing weeks.
Weather
Weather is always a wildcard for a wintertime event in Iowa. A clear, chilly night would favor no one over the others.
Snow or ice on January 15 would probably benefit Trump, whose advocates are “more locked in and enthusiastic,” according to the latest Iowa poll by Selzer & Co for The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom.
Bad weather could also give Haley an edge over DeSantis, since she seems to be doing better in the suburbs, where well-funded city governments stay on top of snow removal. Driving miles to a caucus site could be more challenging for Iowans in rural areas or small towns.
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