Central Oregon’s job growth slows as fall arrives

Central Oregon’s employment growth is showing signs of slowing, fueled by a surprising sharp drop in school hiring, the state Employment Department reported Tuesday.

Deschutes County posted the largest monthly job losses on a seasonally adjusted basis since the recession, said Regional Economist Damon Runberg.

The rate of job growth in Jefferson County was essentially cut in half from what it was just three months ago, Runberg said. Meanwhile, Crook County has seen no substantive improvement to its employment picture over the past year.

Runberg said the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics “estimated that seasonal hiring in local education was really weak.”

“Last year, local government education added 1,050 jobs in September. This year? Only 440,” the regional economist told NewsChannel 21. “These are estimates, which are likely to be revised.”

Several Central Oregon school districts contacted by NewsChannel 21 said there were no major changes in their employment levels this fall, compared to past years.

It can be a matter of timing, Runberg noted, as the estimates used in the monthly report are based on employment as of the 15th of each month.

Runberg added, “I find it unlikely that our local schools added less than half the number of teachers and staff from this time last year. Hopefully the BLS will take another look at this industry when they calculate their revisions.”

Here’s the breakdown by county:

Crook County: The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.8 percent in September. The rate was down from last year when it was 9.7 percent, not a statistically significant decline.

Crook County added 40 jobs in September; slightly less than the expected gain of 60 jobs this time of year. Monthly gains were concentrated in education with the beginning of the new school year.

Employment levels remained down from this time last year (-70 jobs). Excluding layoffs in wood product manufacturing the county was up 110 jobs. Most private sector industries added jobs from last September, highlighted by large gains in retail, leisure and hospitality, and construction.

Deschutes County (Bend-Redmond MSA): There continues to be little improvement to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, which remained essentially unchanged at 6.6 percent in September. The rate was down from this time last year when it was 7.5 percent, not a statistically significant decline.

Deschutes County posted significant job losses in September. The seasonally adjusted decline of 660 jobs last month represented the largest monthly decline since the recession. However, seasonally adjusted employment levels remain up significantly in 2015.

September’s losses were concentrated in leisure and hospitality as we ended the summer tourism season. Losses were also seen in retail, professional and business services, and manufacturing. Most job gains were concentrated in education.

Over-the-year job growth showed signs of slowing, although employment levels remained up by 2,780 jobs. The slowing job growth is primarily due to weaker than normal hiring in local education this school year. Most private industries added jobs over the past year. Construction, health, tourism, and retail posted the largest job gains.

Jefferson County: The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate ticked up to 7.7 percent from 7.5 percent in August. Upward pressure on the unemployment rate is likely from new entrants into the labor market as the labor pool expands. The unemployment rate remains down significantly from last September (8.9%).

Jefferson County added 90 jobs in September, fairly typical gains for this time of year.

Jefferson County’s employment levels remain up from last year, but the rate of job growth is slowing. Employment was up 3.4 percent from last year, down from the 7.0 percent growth between June 2014 and June 2015.. We continue to see modest growth across most private industries with the exception of transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-30 jobs).

Next Press Releases

The Oregon Employment Department plans to release the September county and metropolitan area unemployment rates on Tuesday, November 24 th and the statewide unemployment rate and employment survey data on Tuesday, November 17 th .