C.O. jobless rates low despite seasonal job losses
Despite a revision in data that dropped Central Oregon employment levels, the region’s jobless rates remain substantially lower than year ago, the state Employment Department reported Tuesday.
“Employment trends in October were fairly consistent with seasonal norms, with the tourism industry cutting back with the conclusion of a strong summer season,” said Regional Economist Damon Runberg.
Revised monthly employment estimates for 2016 were released Tuesday, based on payroll records through the second quarter, and employment levels in all three Central Oregon counties were revised downward from the preliminary estimates, Runberg said..
He noted, “These downward revisions did not significantly change the narrative in Deschutes County, as it continues to post some of the fastest job growth in the state.”
“However,” he added, “these revisions altered the narrative in rural Central Oregon. Initial estimates showed robust job gains, but the rate of job growth was cut back significantly in both Crook and Jefferson counties.”
Crook County: The unemployment rate remained little changed at 7.3 percent in October from the revised rate of 7.5 percent in September. The rate remains down significantly from last year, when it was 8.3 percent.
Seasonal job losses began in October, with Crook County shedding 80 jobs from September, fewer than the expected loss of 120 jobs. These losses were concentrated in leisure and hospitality. There were also significant losses in the public sector, as land management agencies cut back their summer employment.
After recent revisions, employment growth was slower than initially estimated in Crook County, with total nonfarm employment levels around 100 jobs lower than previous estimates.
Employment levels were only around 2 percent higher than this time last year (+110 jobs). Job losses over the past year were concentrated in wood product manufacturing (-60 jobs). Growth sectors were construction and health care.
Deschutes County (Bend-Redmond MSA): The unemployment rate dropped significantly in October, to 4.9 percent. Deschutes County’s unemployment rate is now lower than the statewide rate (5.3%) and identical to the national rate. The unemployment rate was 5.8 percent in October 2015.
The first push of seasonal job losses was felt in October, with Deschutes County shedding just shy of 800 jobs from September, fairly typical losses for this time of year. Not surprisingly, these losses were concentrated in leisure and hospitality (-1,040 jobs), an industry that accounts for most of the region’s tourism related jobs.
Revisions using payroll records revealed that job growth was slower than initially estimated in Deschutes County. Despite the slower growth, the Bend-Redmond MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area, encompassing all of the county) continues to add jobs at a faster pace than all other metro areas in Oregon, with employment levels up 4.9 percent from this time last year (+3,680 jobs).
Health care; professional and business services; and construction continue to drive countywide growth. Job losses were largely limited to financial activities and information.
Jefferson County: The unemployment rate remained little changed at 7 percent in October from the revised rate of 7.2 percent in September. The rate was 7.4 percent last October.
Jefferson County lost 50 jobs in October, slightly fewer losses than typically expected this time of year.
Similar to other parts of Central Oregon, job growth was revised down after recent revisions from payroll records. Employment levels were essentially unchanged from this time last year. There were modest gains in construction; professional and business services; and health care. However, these gains were largely negated by losses in manufacturing and the public sector.
Next Press Releases
The Oregon Employment Department plans to release the November county and metropolitan area unemployment rates on Tuesday, December 20 th and the statewide unemployment rate and employment survey data on Tuesday, December 13 th .
