Oregon’s low jobless rate still holding steady

Oregon’s unemployment rate dropped a bit to 4.2 percent in May, from 4.3 percent in April, the state Employment Department reported Tuesday. The state’s jobless rate has been between 4.0 percent and 4.4 percent for 31 straight months, dating back to November 2016.

The U.S. unemployment rate was 3.6 percent in both April and May.

During this economic expansion, Oregon’s unemployment rate has been lower than at any time since comparable records began in 1976. The previous low was reached in January and February 1995, when Oregon’s rate touched 4.7 percent.

In addition to the very low level of Oregon’s unemployment rate, it has been lower longer than ever before. Since the late 1970s, during the prior five economic expansions, the unemployment rate would generally drop to a bottom in the cycle and then start moving upward within a few months. In contrast, during the past three years, Oregon’s unemployment rate dropped down close to 4 percent, remaining near there for 31 consecutive months.

In May, Oregon’s total nonfarm payroll employment rose 1,200 jobs, following a gain of 4,000 jobs in April. Monthly gains for May were strongest in health care and social assistance, which added 900 jobs, and in construction and government, which each added 600 jobs. Two industries cut jobs modestly in May: private educational services (-500 jobs) and retail trade (-400 jobs).

Looking at longer-term trends, Oregon’s economy continued to grow rapidly. Since May 2018, total nonfarm payroll employment was up 47,400 jobs, or 2.5 percent. The most rapid gains over the past year were in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+4,900 jobs, or 7.6%) and construction (+7,500 jobs, or 7.2%). Job gains were widespread, with five other major industries each adding between 2.5 percent and 3.3 percent to their jobs base in the past 12 months. These industries were manufacturing (+6,500 jobs, or 3.3%), health care and social assistance (+7,300 jobs, or 2.8%), professional and business services (+6,700 jobs, or 2.7%), leisure and hospitality (+5,600 jobs, or 2.7%), and wholesale trade (+1,900 jobs, or 2.5%). During that time, none of the major industries cut a substantial number of jobs, although three industries showed little change: retail trade; financial activities; and mining and logging.

Next Press Releases

The Oregon Employment Department plans to release the May county and metropolitan area unemployment rates on Tuesday, June 25th, and the next statewide unemployment rate and employment survey data for June on Tuesday, July 16th.

Notes:

All numbers in the above narrative are seasonally adjusted.

The Oregon Employment Department and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) work cooperatively to develop and publish monthly Oregon payroll employment and labor force data. The estimates of monthly job gains and losses are based on a survey of businesses. The estimates of unemployment are based on a survey of households and other sources.

The Oregon Employment Department publishes payroll employment estimates that are revised quarterly by using employment counts from employer unemployment insurance tax records. All department publications use this Official Oregon Series data unless noted otherwise. This month’s release incorporates the October, November and December 2018 tax records data. The department continues to make the original nonfarm payroll employment series available; these data are produced by the BLS.

The PDF version of the news release, including tables and graphs, can be found at www.QualityInfo.org/press-release. To obtain the data in other formats such as in Excel, visit www.QualityInfo.org, then within the top banner, select Economic Data, then choose LAUS or CES. To request the press release as a Word document, contact the person shown at the top of this press release.

For help finding jobs and training resources, visit one of the state’s WorkSource Oregon centers or go to: www.WorkSourceOregon.org.

Equal Opportunity program — auxiliary aids and services available upon request to individuals with disabilities. Contact: (503) 947-1794. For people who are deaf or hard of hearing, call 711 Telecommunications Relay Services.