Decision 2026: Survey gives Drazan a slight lead over Kotek in Oregon governor’s race

By: Jamie Parfitt

PORTLAND, Ore. — A newly released phone survey of Oregon voters suggests that the 2026 gubernatorial race is shaping up to be a competitive one, with Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan even boasting a slight lead — albeit one within the margin of error.

The poll from research firm Public Opinion Strategies gave Drazan a 4-point advantage: 48% to incumbent Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek's 44%.

"Even in the left-leaning Portland media market, the race is a dead heat (45% Drazan/46% Kotek), with Drazan establishing healthy leads in the rest of the state," the pollsters wrote.

Drazan led in the Eugene media market (49% to 45%), had a commanding lead in the Medford market (56% to 29%) and a healthy margin in small DMAs (54% to 40%).

According to the polling firm's assessment, voters have "had enough of Tina Kotek's failure, enough to buck any pro-Democrat national trend that might exist." Of the respondents, 57% said they disapproved of Kotek's job performance, while 38% approved. A similar number, 59%, felt the state is on the wrong track.

A strong majority of respondents also said they wanted to see either "a great deal" or "quite a bit" of change from Oregon's next governor, although those results skewed heavily toward Republican and non-affiliated respondents. Among Democrats, 44% responded with either of those two options.

The poll was conducted entirely by phone between June 22 and 24, surveying 600 voters in Oregon reflecting the Oregon electorate "by gender, age, ethnicity, level of education and party registration," according to Public Opinion Strategies. It has a stated margin of error of plus or minus 4%.

Public Opinion Strategies is a national research firm that's been around for decades, but it makes no secret of its political clientele skewing heavily if not entirely Republican. It boasts helping 230 Republican members of Congress in all, including 90 who defeated a Democratic incumbent or flipped a previously Democratic open seat.

"Public Opinion Strategies has helped defeat more incumbent Members of Congress than any other firm, Republican or Democrat," the firm's website states.

Meanwhile, the Cook Political Report on Friday moved the Oregon gubernatorial race from "Solid D" to "Likely D." Democrats hold an 8-point advantage on the Cook Partisan Voting Index in the state.

In a statement heralding the poll on Friday, Drazan's campaign presented it as proof positive of an Oregon electorate dissatisfied with the Kotek administration.

“People are frustrated by the rising cost of living, the lack of affordable housing, worsening homelessness and a governor who keeps making life more expensive instead of fixing problems. Every day, more Oregonians are looking to Christine Drazan as the leader who can turn things around,” said Trey Rosser, campaign strategist for Drazan.

But Kotek supporters have a reason to feel that this poll could represent a red mirage. In 2022, some polls showed Drazan out ahead of the pack in the three-way race between her, Kotek and unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson. When the dust settled, Kotek won with 47% to Drazan's 44% and Johnson's 9%.

It was a similar situation in 2018, when then-Gov. Kate Brown, a Democrat, ran for reelection against moderate Republican Knute Buehler. Polling showed Buehler trailing, but within striking distance of Brown. In the end, she won handily, 50% to Buehler's 44%.

National polling, as the Public Opinion Strategies survey notes, has also been tracking an apparent across-the-board advantage for Democrats in a midterm election responsive to President Donald Trump's performance — particularly in light of rising costs exacerbated by the war with Iran.

“Christine Drazan is desperate to show that she has a shot, but the reality is she is out of step with Oregon values," said Federico Araujo, communications director for Tina for Oregon. "As Oregon voters learn more about how Drazan has sided with Trump’s dangerous and unpopular agenda, they’re going to remember exactly why they rejected her four years ago.”