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OR revenue forecast: $2.3 billion increase, bigger rebate

KTVZ file

SALEM, Ore. (AP) — Increased tax revenues are now predicted to deliver a record kicker rebate of $3 billion to taxpayers in 2024.

The Oregonian/OregonLive reports that Economist Mark McMullen on Wednesday called the latest revenue outlook for the state’s two-year budget cycle “nothing short of shocking.” The size of the kicker is likely to fluctuate before it is finalized in summer 2023.

“We really never could have imagined the sort of stuff we’ve seen in the last couple months,” McMullen said.

Oregon’s income tax receipts this filing season mean a $2.3 billion increase in general fund revenue compared with just three months ago, but the unique kicker tax rebate would return much of the money to taxpayers. The expected size of the kicker tripled since February.

There will be $427 million more for state lawmakers to spend in the 2023-2025 budget, but only if the Legislature holds onto the money until then. Oregon’s current two-year general fund and lottery budget is $29.3 billion, according to the Legislative Fiscal Office.

Lawmakers and Gov. Kate Brown have so far given no indication they want to approve additional spending this year, which would require a special session.

Economists said rising wages in the tight labor market are helping to drive the revenue increases, but so is taxpayer behavior including wealthy individuals selling assets that yield capital gains.

Oregon’s unique kicker rebate is triggered when tax revenues for a biennium come in more than 2% above economists’ forecast from the start of the budget cycle, in this case the May 2021 revenue forecast. The state must return the full amount above the forecast to taxpayers.

Personal income taxpayers already received a kicker rebate totaling $1.9 billion when they filed their returns this year. Taxpayers will get their share of the kicker forecasted Wednesday to be $3 billion in 2024 in the form of a tax credit or tax refund when they file their 2023 income taxes that spring.

Associated Press



      1. I guess you’re still a big loser in the stock market. There were record gains last tax year. Those gains were taxed. Hence the windfall. It’s not hard to see it when you’re on the winning end.

  1. Yes-Yes Kate… Grab as much of my hard earned cash as your greedy paws can take- hold it from me for a year- then decide how much of these ill gotten gains you will begrudgingly return- and then expect accolades from the dimwits in the state who have no idea what just happened. This is exactly what dictators do- they rob from the peasants- then offer five percent off carrots when they start to storm the building… throw out every Democrat in Salem and start over- they are ripping you off.

  2. I highly suggest buying weapons and ammunition with your extra money. You should already be prepped with most all you need, now is just for infilling

      1. There’s no fear about it and it has nothing to do with being afraid. Thanks for admitting being your stereotypical scared liberal democrat

  3. Thank you to the folks that pushed so hard for the kicker in the late 70s. thanks again to the voters for making it part of the constitution. You think the current leadership want to give you your money back?

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