‘Pretty tough’: Central Oregon farmer says timing of Trump’s beef import plan will hit American ranchers hard

(Update: adding comments from local farmer)

BEND, Ore. (KTVZ) -- For many American ranchers, higher beef prices at the grocery store haven’t necessarily translated to bigger profits.

Central Oregon farmer Chris Casad, owner of Casad Family Farms, says what producers earn for their cattle has only recently started catching up with decades of low prices and the rising costs of fuel, feed, transportation, and other expenses.

“The beef market’s been up, but it’s been correcting itself from about… 20, 30, 40 years of very low prices consistently,” Casad said.

Now, some producers worry an influx of lower-priced foreign beef could push those returns back down.

President Donald Trump has announced a plan that would allow up to 300,000 metric tons of beef intended for ground beef into the United States at lower tariff rates for 90 days.

Trump says the imported beef would be sold at prices 25% below the current market in an effort to lower grocery bills for American consumers.

Here in Central Oregon, farms that sell beef directly to consumers may be somewhat insulated from fluctuations in the broader cattle market. But Casad says the national market still has a major impact on local producers.

Many ranchers raise calves before selling them into the larger cattle market. That makes the timing of the administration’s proposal particularly concerning for producers with spring calves, which are typically sold in the fall.

“It’s a very hard time of year for that to happen because everyone who does have spring calves… generally, they’re taking them to sale sometime from September to November,” Casad said. “It’s pretty tough.”

Additional lower-cost beef entering the market during that period could put downward pressure on what ranchers receive for their cattle, potentially cutting into one of their primary sources of annual income.

The concern comes as the U.S. cattle herd is already at its lowest level in roughly 75 years. Rebuilding the nation’s cattle supply takes time because producers must retain breeding animals rather than sending them to market.

Trump has argued temporary imports could provide some relief for consumers while domestic cattle supplies recover.

However, some economists have questioned whether the proposed volume of imported beef would be large enough to meaningfully lower prices shoppers see at grocery stores.

For Casad, the concern is what happens to producers if cattle prices fall before ranchers have had enough time to recover from years of tighter margins.

“Every dollar that gets pulled from a rancher’s pocket inevitably is going to be putting someone out of business or making it that much less viable for someone to continue on,” Casad said.

The potential impact will ultimately depend on how the plan affects both cattle markets and retail beef prices — and whether consumers see meaningful savings without creating longer-term challenges for American ranchers and family farms.