Trump’s midterm woes deepen amid worsened economic backdrop: CNN poll

(CNN) — With President Donald Trump at record unpopularity, Republicans are facing an even bleaker midterm political landscape than they did eight years ago, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds.

Nationally, voters say they prefer Democratic candidates over Republicans by an eight-point margin – slightly more modest than their 12-point advantage in CNN’s September polling ahead of the 2018 midterms in Trump’s first presidency.

But Trump is even more unpopular than he was in 2018, and the economic backdrop has worsened considerably. In his first term, Trump saw net-positive ratings on the economy, which Americans largely saw as thriving. Now, just 27% of Americans approve of Trump on the economy, down 22 points from 2018. And 28% call economic conditions good – a drop of 41 points.

The issue has risen in prominence: Two-thirds of registered voters call the economy “extremely important” to their vote, higher than in the autumn before either of the past two midterms. And, in a shift from recent trends, Americans say they agree more with Democrats than Republicans when it comes to the issue.

That leaves a midterm electorate in which the president’s supporters are largely tepid, while his opponents are furious. In a midterm high for an incumbent president dating back to the George W. Bush era, 44% of registered voters say they view their congressional vote as a message of opposition to Trump. Just 19%, by contrast, say their vote will be a message of support for the president.

At the same time, the public remains split on what a Democratic congressional victory might mean for the cost of living in the US, or their own financial situation.

Support for Trump continues to erode

Overall, just one-third of Americans now approve of Trump’s job performance, the continuation of a steady decline throughout his second term. That’s on par with the 34% he saw in July, but marks a numeric low in either term of his presidency.

Only 13% now say they strongly approve of his performance, another career low. Just 24% say he has the right priorities, and a scant 20% approve of his handling of inflation.

Two-thirds of Americans say Trump has worsened economic conditions in the country, and majorities say that the war in Iran, as well as new tariffs, have had a negative effect on their own finances. By contrast, few say they’re seeing benefits from Trump policies like changes to the tax law, or the establishment of Trump Accounts for children born during his second term. Most Americans also call increased gas prices a financial hardship for their household – and though only about one-quarter call that hardship severe, the public remains dubious that Trump has any plan to address the issue.

A 57% majority of Americans say they feel uncertain about their own finances, with nearly half expressing stress about their financial future – a sentiment that’s particularly acute among younger adults. Just 31% of Americans say they feel hope and 23% that they feel security, down 8 and 7 points respectively from spring. More than one-third aren’t confident about maintaining their current standard of living, worse than the numbers at the tail end of the Great Recession.

While Republicans haven’t deserted Trump, relatively few remain enthusiastic about the current state of his presidency. Only 35% say they strongly approve of him, down from 66% in September 2018. In the latest poll, 50% of Republicans disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation, 59% say the Iran war has hurt their finances, and nearly half say he’s worsened or had no effect on economic conditions.

Democrats are fired up for the midterm, but the public’s expectations for a Democratic Congress aren’t high

Overall, voters say, 49% to 41%, that they’d support a Democratic candidate over a Republican candidate in their congressional district. Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters are 16 points likelier than GOP-aligned voters to say they’re extremely motivated to vote this year.

Among the full public, anger at Trump and deep dissatisfaction with the status quo are paired with real skepticism about the prospects of a Democratic-controlled Congress.

Both congressional Democrats and congressional Republicans are deeply – and about equally – unpopular, with about one-quarter of Americans approving.

And while Americans say by a 10-point margin that a Democratic-controlled Congress would have a positive effect on health care policy, they’re closely split on whether a change in power would be more positive or negative when it comes to the cost of living in the US, their own finances, corruption, or foreign policy.

But the Democrats are nevertheless seen as the lesser of two evils on a crucial issue: They lead the GOP by 7 points as the party Americans say is closest to their own views on the economy. Over the past four years, this is both by far the best number for Democrats and the worst for Republicans on the topic.

A 68% majority of voters call the economy “extremely important” to their vote, topping a list of more than 10 issues. That’s far higher than the 59% in fall 2022 or 44% in fall 2018 who called the issue extremely important.

The poll finds that elections themselves, election integrity and voting rights are also at the forefront of many partisans’ minds as Trump continues his efforts to reshape or cast doubt on parts of the voting system, with 61% calling the issue extremely important. Majorities also say that inflation and health care are extremely important, while other hot-button issues – including data centers and AI, abortion, and policies around gender identity and trans people – don’t register as deeply.

Voters’ decisions, though, aren’t always down to which issues they find most important – more than half of voters say that other factors will be more important in their vote for Congress this year. And in this year where discontent with Washington is at the forefront of many voters’ minds, about a third say their votes will be primarily driven by which party will control the House of Representatives, including almost 4 in 10 of the most motivated voters.

CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta, Edward Wu and Isabelle LaBianco contributed to this report.

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The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS online and by telephone September 16-17 among a random national sample of 1,206 adults, including 867 registered voters. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; it is 4.1 points among registered voters.