The World Cup game that no one wants to win
(CNN) — Well, this World Cup has found its Cinderella.
Tiny Cape Verde, which shocked the soccer world by drawing with Spain in its first World Cup match, is through to the knockout rounds after drawing with Saudi Arabia in Houston and Spain’s defeat of Uruguay on Friday night. It’s a truly incredible result and sets up one of the most unbelievable matchups possible in the Round of 32: The underdogs will take on the reigning world champions Argentina and all-time superstar Lionel Messi.
Don’t worry, we’ll get more into it below. But, for now, let’s explain why Saturday will see a game that neither team wants to win and how FIFA’s new rules for this World Cup set up a particularly wild scenario.
A game that neither team wants to win? Welcome to the wonderful world of tournament permutations
Strip it all away and soccer is a simple sport. Two teams do everything they can to score more goals than the other in order to secure a glorious win. Easy to understand, right? Well, these rules sometimes fly out the window at this stage of a World Cup.
You just have to look at the Group J match between Austria and Algeria later today as an example of how group permutations can twist the very basic laws of the game.
Let’s take it step by step. Whoever wins this match will finish second and secure an automatic spot in the Round of 32. A goal worth fighting for, right? Well, maybe not.
Given that Spain won its final group game yesterday, the European champion will be awaiting whoever finishes second in Group J. That’s a test so difficult that it might make more sense for Austria to actually lose the game today.
A defeat would mean Austria finishes third but still qualify for the knockouts as one of the best third-placed finishers. It also means it faces a slightly easier fixture in the Round of 32 – which as it stands means a clash against Switzerland.
A win might be no good to Algeria either, for the exact same reason.
Instead, on paper at least, a draw would be idea for Algeria because it means it will finish third and therefore will avoid a clash with Spain. A win, on the other hand, secures a second-place finish and a clash with Lamine Yamal and La Roja.
The question is: Will both teams be trying to do everything not to win? Well, probably not.
Momentum is very important in tournament soccer and setting out to draw or lose goes against everything these players are primed to do. They’re also representing their nations, something which comes with a responsibility to do the right thing.
At most, managers might look to rotate their squads and, I’m sure, no team will admit to anything other than trying as hard as it can.
Algeria is also in a situation where a loss would likely knock it out of the tournament, so the African side can’t afford to play around too much.
This sort of strange situation does happen occasionally in soccer, and definitely at tournaments like the World Cup. It’s also occurred in league matches, with fans hoping their own team loses because winning would only help their rivals.
It’s a strange quirk that doesn’t come up too often, but it might make the game more exciting to watch.
England vs. Panama (Group L)
When? 5 p.m. ET
Where? New York New Jersey Stadium (MetLife Stadium), East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA
It’s a lot less complicated in some of the other groups.
This game, for example, doesn’t have a great deal riding on it. Panama is already out of the competition after losing both its matches so far.
England has already qualified whatever happens but will want to finish top of the group. That will require a win or even a draw if Croatia and Ghana also tie their match.
The Three Lions thrashed Panama 6-1 in the group stages back in 2018 and will be confident in recording a similar score, as they look to shake off the concerns that came with their 0-0 draw to Ghana last time out.
You can also expect England to make a few changes to the starting lineup as it looks to rest some key stars who are battling minor injuries.
Croatia vs. Ghana (Group L)
When? 5 p.m. ET
Where? Philadelphia Stadium (Lincoln Financial Field), Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
Both Croatia and Ghana know that a win will be good enough to see them through to the next phase, as the group runner-up at least.
A draw in this match would suit the Black Stars as well, with the African side a point ahead of its opponent as things stand.
A loss for either side still might not be the end of the world, with both in a position to progress as a lucky loser. Defeat for the Vatreni would leave it sweating, though, and it would require a favorable run of results in the other matches.
Cape Verde is the World Cup’s Cinderella
From CNN’s Kyle Feldscher:
OK, back to everyone’s new second favorite team.
Cape Verde is a nation of about 500,000 people, an island nation off of Africa’s west coast. Let’s be kind and say expectations for The Blue Sharks were low at their debut in the World Cup.
Manager Pedro Leitão Brito – better known as Bubista – told CNN Sports in May his aim at the tournament was to show that “nothing is impossible.” Well, job done.
Cape Verde earned three draws in the group stage – the shocking Spain result, running with Uruguay in the second match and ending up in a scoreless draw with Saudi Arabia in Houston on Friday. In all honesty, the Cape Verdeans seemed the team more likely to score in their final match and had multiple opportunities to win it.
Their match with Saudi Arabia ended and there were still some ticks left on the clock in Zapopan, where Spain was leading Uruguay. Cape Verde stayed on the field to wait for the final result, hoping that the Spanish would hold on against the desperate Uruguayans who were trying to avoid a second-straight crash out in the World Cup group stage. They gathered around a staff member with the game streaming on his phone, a full team staring at a small screen to see what their future held.
When the final whistle blew, the emotions poured out. The Cape Verdeans cried and hugged to massive cheers, soaking in the atmosphere as they become the first World Cup debutants to go to the knockout stage since 2010. The scenes of joy and jubilation around NRG Stadium were absolutely incredible, the kind of thing that makes this tournament the biggest thing in global sports.
Many, many miles south, the Uruguayans were also in tears and hugging but for a much different reason. A catastrophic World Cup came to an end in the worst way, frustrated by a Spain side that really didn’t have all that much to play for as it was assured of progressing to the knockout rounds before the match begin. The scenes of heartbreak were the other side of the World Cup coin; it was a tough watch.
It’s the most unlikely scenario out of Group H as those Uruguayans will now go home and Cape Verde will head to Miami for a win-or-go-home Round of 32 contest.
Waiting for them in the Sunshine State? Messi and Argentina. Cinderella vs. the defending World Cup champions – who could have seen it coming?
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Colombia vs. Portugal (Group K)
When? 7:30 p.m. ET
Where? Miami Stadium (Hard Rock Stadium), Miami Gardens, Florida, USA
By CNN’s Emile Nuh
Colombia has already booked its place in the knockout round after winning both of its first two games and sits top of Group K with six points.
Despite thumping Uzbekistan 5-0 in Houston on Tuesday, Portugal’s draw with DR Congo in its opening game means it enters this fixture second in the group with four points.
But Roberto Martínez’s side has basically already qualified for the knockout round, as Congo would have to blow out Uzbekistan and hope Portugal loses to displace the Seleção in second.
And even if that unlikely scenario comes to pass, Portugal would likely still qualify as one of the eight best third-place finishers anyway.
Los Cafeteros just need to avoid a loss to finish as Group K champions, while Portugal needs to win. Expect Cristiano Ronaldo & Co. to come out firing in this one.
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan (Group K)
When? 7:30 p.m. ET
Where? Atlanta Stadium (Mercedes-Benz Stadium), Atlanta, Georgia, USA
By CNN’s Emile Nuh
Although unlikely, DR Congo could still finish as the Group K runner-up as its head-to-head record with Portugal is even, so if Les Léopards manage to win by six over Uzbekistan and the Seleção loses, the runner-up spot is theirs.
But realistically that won’t happen, and the DRC will be aiming to advance as one of the eight best third-place finishers. A win should do that for them.
Uzbekistan has a real mountain to climb, as the White Wolves’ goal difference of -7 means they will need to complete a historic rout of Congo and hope other results go their way just to advance through to a lucky third-place spot.
But seeing as Uzbekistan conceded eight goals in its first two group games and scored just once, it looks like a long shot to say the least. The team is likely heading home after Sunday’s game.
Algeria vs. Austria (Group J)
When? 10 p.m. ET
Where? Kansas City Stadium (Arrowhead Stadium), Kansas City, Missouri, USA
By CNN’s Emile Nuh
As we said earlier, this game will definitely be one to keep an eye on, as Algeria and Austria both sit level on three points behind defending champion Argentina.
It had all looked quite bleak for Algeria after its first match of the tournament. The game ended 3-0 to Argentina – with a Lionel Messi hat-trick – and some of the defending looked really concerning from the African side.
But a comeback win against Jordan has made progressing to the Round of 32 a possibility. Austria has also lost to Messi and Co. and beaten Jordan. Who knows how this one will turn out.
Jordan vs. Argentina (Group J)
When? 10 p.m. ET
Where? Dallas Stadium (AT&T Stadium), Arlington, Texas, USA
By CNN’s Emile Nuh
Meanwhile, there is no real jeopardy in this one whatsoever, as Jordan is already out of the tournament and Argentina is already through to the knockout rounds as Group J champion.
On paper, this is also the easiest fixture for the defending champion, so head coach Lionel Scaloni will use this game to rest key players – most importantly 39-year-old Messi – and give minutes to fringe squad members and those who are yet to feature at this tournament.
It’s not unfeasible that we could see an entirely different starting 11 for the Albiceleste than the one that beat Austria 2-0.
For Jordan, it’s just about ending what has been a disappointing tournament on a high – though that seems unlikely.
The Final Whistle: The West Coast World Cup
Our Kyle Feldscher is back from Southern California after a quick trip for USA-Turkey and has some thoughts about the differing viewing experience for fans in the Pacific Time Zone.
One of the major discussion points throughout this tournament – especially in Europe – has been about game times with many kickoffs coming late for the US East Coast or overnight for Europeans.
A few days in Los Angeles this week made me realize: This is really the West Coast World Cup.
I went to a bar in Manhattan Beach on Wednesday night to watch Mexico take on the Czech Republic, a game that ended at 11 p.m. ET or 4 a.m. in London. But when it finished up in Southern California, the light in the sky was only just starting to fade.
For many soccer fans in the US, the World Cup is about waking up with the Beautiful Game and watching the first games with coffee, the second game with lunch and the third game just before heading out of the office (or, if you’re sneaky, at an early happy hour). The onslaught of games during this group stage has meant the day’s action often starts with lunch and is still going long after much of the country is asleep.
But it’s perfect out west. Truly, they’ve got it made for a viewing experience. The latest games are played in West Coast primetime and the biggest matches are easily accessible – and don’t necessarily require bleary eyes for viewing.
The host cities on the West Coast – Vancouver, Seattle, Santa Clara and Los Angeles – are nearing the end of their World Cup runs. The Bay Area will host USA-Bosnia and Herzegovina on Wednesday, the final match in Santa Clara. Vancouver and Seattle each have a Round of 32 and a Round of 16 game and Los Angeles has two Round of 32 matches before a quarterfinal on July 10.
After that, the tournament fully shifts eastward and timings become increasingly manageable for East Coasters and Europeans. But the West Coast soccer fans will have relished their time in the World Cup sun.
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