Little change in the pattern, high heat and high fire danger this weekend
There is another heat advisory in place today for portions of the viewing area and will continue each day through Sunday. The high pressure ridge that brought us the triple digit heat last weekend is well east, but the heat is still around and we are drying out quickly.
The long stretch of high heat has taken a tool on the vegetation and has started to deplete the water resources in the area. The melting snow is now evaporating rather than soaking into the soil, and the moisture in the soil from earlier snow melt is evaporating quickly as well. Currently in the Moderate Drought category east of 97, and it doesn’t look to improve anytime soon.
The threat for dry lightning is now being discussed by the meteorological community a bit more aggressively the closer we get to the weekend. There will be some clouds and moisture added to the region over the next 48 to 72 hours. This moisture in the upper levels of the atmosphere will do little to relieve the heat, but we may see some isolated showers or storms develop.
The air at the surface is very dry so any rain that falls will evaporate well before reaching the surface. If there is enough movement of the molecules to generate lightning, it will be “dry” lightning. In other words, lightning with no rain. Very bad for our region at this time, due to the dry fuel on the ground. If a lightning strike starts a fire this weekend it will spread rapidly.
Highs on Saturday will be around 100° and the middle to upper 90s on Sunday. Winds will be light, but gusty at times enough for us to be concerned about smoke and wildfires. Little change in the overall pattern as we head into next week. Our run of above normal temperatures continues for at least one more week, probably longer.
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