Bomb cyclone to bring major winter storm to the Southeast. Northeast could see a glancing blow or a lot of snow

(CNN) — A rapidly strengthening coastal storm is expected to develop this weekend and bring heavy snow, strong winds and coastal flooding to the Southeast amid an outbreak of deadly cold temperatures.

As the storm moves north, southeast New England is currently in the bull’s-eye, but its exact path is still coming into focus.

Computer forecast models are increasingly aligned on a low-pressure system forming off the Carolinas early Saturday and intensifying rapidly into a bomb cyclone. Blizzard conditions are possible on the southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina coasts by Saturday night and significant coastal flooding possible by Sunday morning.

How closely the storm hugs the coast as it moves north Sunday through the weekend will determine how much snow, if any, falls across the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Coastal flooding is possible in these regions, too, as the storm’s impacts will be amplified by high tides ahead of a full moon Sunday.

More than 20 million people are under winter storm watches in the Southeast including Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina, Norfolk, Virginia, and Atlanta.

Many of these these areas are already weary from last weekend’s deadly winter storm, which dumped snow and ice that snarled travel and knocked out power to some.

Here’s what to expect:

Southeast, southern Virginia: heavy snow, punishing winds

Accumulating snow and strong winds are expected to begin Friday night into Saturday across parts of the Southeast, including northern and eastern Georgia, the Carolinas and southern Virginia.

Models agree that the storm will track close enough to bring snow to this region even if its exact path shifts slightly. While snowfall total predictions are still being refined, the signal for accumulation is strong enough to raise concerns about hazardous travel, especially with cold air already firmly in place.

Blizzard conditions could occur in coastal parts of southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina as winds gust up to 60 mph by Saturday night. Snow and strong winds must combine to bring visibility dangerously low for several hours for a storm to officially be a blizzard.

The highest snow totals are expected in central and eastern North Carolina and southern Virginia, where cities like Greensboro and Raleigh, North Carolina, and Norfolk, Virginia, could see a half-foot or more. Totals could be anywhere from a coating to a few inches farther inland, including Greenville and Columbia, South Carolina, and possibly parts of the Atlanta metro.

Even outside of official blizzard conditions, strong winds could further worsen conditions, leading to blowing snow and the potential for scattered power outages if heavier snow bands develop. Snow is expected to continue into Sunday morning, but will taper off from west to east during the day.

Northeast: close shave, but New England has biggest threat

In the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, forecast confidence drops sharply, with the storm’s eventual track playing a critical role in determining impacts.

As of early Thursday, areas closer to the coast and farther north into New England appear to have the best chance of seeing some accumulating snow, but how much is still unclear. A shift of just 100 to 200 miles from the current forecast could dramatically change outcomes, particularly for cities along the Interstate-95 corridor.

If the storm hugs the coast, it could bring a significant snowstorm with damaging winds, but that worst-case scenario seems unlikely to play out at this time.

It’s looking more likely that the storm will move slightly farther offshore and deal a glancing blow to the region, delivering light snow or mainly windy conditions for cities such as Washington, DC, Philadelphia and New York City. Boston has a better chance of seeing snow given its position farther east, closer to the storm’s likely path.

Coastal impacts: beach erosion, high surf, coastal flooding likely

Coastal impacts will be a serious concern along parts of the East Coast as the storm rapidly intensifies offshore, even for any areas that miss out on snow.

According to NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, “wind gusts near hurricane-force will coincide with astronomical high tides, producing moderate to locally significant coastal flooding.”

Strong winds, high surf and beach erosion are possible from the Southeast coast into parts of the Northeast, particularly if the storm strengthens quickly while tracking closer to shore. Moderate to significant coastal flooding is possible, especially in northeast North Carolina, the Virginia Tidewater region and southeast New England.

The bottom line: If you live from the Carolinas to the Northeast, pay close attention to the latest forecast and make preparations now.

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CNN Meteorologists Chris Dolce and Mary Gilbert contributed to this report.