Pakistan’s defense minister says latest clashes with Taliban mean ‘open war.’ What’s happening?

Islamabad (CNN) — Afghanistan and Pakistan are fighting again, trading deadly shelling and mortar fire across their rugged border, with Islamabad’s defense minister saying his country’s patience had “run out” and declaring “open war” on its Taliban-run neighbor.

It’s the latest flare-up in an on-off conflict that pitches Pakistan’s well-funded, powerful and nuclear-armed military against hardened Afghan Taliban fighters with decades of battle experience – including victory over US and NATO forces in 2021 after years of insurgency.

Here’s what we know about the latest violence, which threatens to exacerbate instability in the region.

How did it start?

Late Thursday night the Taliban’s military launched attacks on Pakistani positions along some sections of their porous and disputed border that wends 1,600 miles through rugged mountains and desert.

Kabul said those attacks were in retaliation for Pakistan’s bombing of what it said were militant camps in Afghanistan over the weekend that left at least 18 people dead.

In response, early on Friday, Pakistan launched Ghazab Lil Haqq – or “Operation Righteous Fury.”

Pakistani airstrikes had hit Kabul, the southeastern province of Paktia, and Kandahar, considered the spiritual birthplace of the Taliban where the group’s secretive leader Hibatullah Akhundzada is believed to be based.

Pakistan said its strikes early Friday targeted Afghan Taliban defense facilities, a significant escalation in the country’s retaliation strategy.

A Kabul resident described the moment her family was woken by a loud explosion on Friday.

“I was terrified,” the woman, who CNN is not naming for safety reasons, said.

“Then we heard gunfire. When we looked out of our apartment window, we saw bullet-like flames going up in the sky,” she said, adding she could not sleep and was still awake at 5 a.m., fearing what could happen next.

“Since the first explosion, the lights of most of the houses and apartments around us have been on,” the woman said. “I’m sure every Kabul resident is sitting in fear of being hit by a bomb.”

Muhammad Ullah, a resident of the Baizai district in Pakistan’s northwest, described hearing “a series of explosions” on Thursday night, with sounds continuing until morning.

The two sides have reported differing casualty figures for Friday’s attack. Pakistan claimed that its military had killed 133 Afghan Taliban fighters, while Afghanistan said eight of its soldiers had been killed. CNN isn’t able to verify reports from the remote region where the fighting is taking place.

In Pakistan’s northwestern Bajaur district, a mortar shell fired by the Afghan Taliban landed on a house, injuring five people, including two children and a woman, according to police officer, Fazal Akbar.

Pakistan’s information minister on Friday also said that militants from the Pakistani Taliban attempted to launch drones attacks in the northwest from within the country, which Pakistan’s anti-drone systems thwarted.

“The incidents have again exposed direct linkages between Afghan Taliban Regime and Terrorism in Pakistan,” Pakistan’s information minister Attaullah Tarar said.

Haven’t we been here before?

Yes. Despite sharing close economic and cultural ties, the two countries have a complicated history.

Last October, they fought their deadliest conflict in years, with a fragile ceasefire in place since.

After the Afghan Taliban was ousted from power by NATO forces in 2001 for sheltering the perpetrators of the September 11 attacks, Pakistan became one of its main backers.

Its fighters found shelter over the border in Pakistan, and support for their subsequent insurgency against the US-backed Afghan government, in what became the US’ longest-ever war.

But since the Taliban’s ultimate victory in that war following the chaotic US withdrawal and their return to power in Kabul, Pakistan has faced a surge in Islamist violence.

Islamabad blames Pakistani Taliban militants for much of that violence – and accuses Kabul of giving them shelter on its territory.

Many of those attacks are carried out with US weapons left behind during the chaotic withdrawal, CNN has reported. The Afghan Taliban denies hosting its Pakistani namesake.

More than 1,200 people, including military and civilians, were killed in militant attacks across the country in 2025, according to data shared with CNN by the Pakistani military. That’s double the number recorded in 2021, when the US retreated from Kabul and the Afghan Taliban returned to power.

Many Afghan Taliban figures still have property and families in Pakistan, the country’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif told CNN in November. When asked by CNN if the current spike in violence was the definition of blowback, he replied “Yeah, I think so.”

Asif took to social media early Friday to accuse Afghanistan of gathering “all the terrorists of the world” and “exporting terrorism,” while depriving its own people of human rights.

“Our patience has run out,” Asif wrote on X. “Now it is open war between us and you.”

How do their militaries stack up?

By the numbers, the disparity between the Pakistani and Afghan militaries is stark, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ (IISS) “Military Balance 2025.”

The military remains Pakistan’s most powerful institution, having solidified its dominance throughout the country’s history with coups and constitutional amendments.

As a nuclear power, Pakistan commands a sophisticated defense apparatus comprising an army, navy, air force, and marine corps. According to the IISS, these branches total approximately 660,000 active-duty troops, reinforced by paramilitary and military police units numbering nearly 300,000 personnel.

Their conventional strength is bolstered by a modern arsenal, including US-made F-16 fighter jets, French Mirage jets, and the JF-17, jointly produced with China, Islamabad’s primary defense partner.

In contrast, Afghanistan possesses a singular, unified force: the Taliban.

Estimated at fewer than 200,000 personnel, the Taliban’s military structure lacks a functional air force, relying instead on a handful of aging Soviet-era attack helicopters and transport aircraft abandoned during the US withdrawal as well as quadcopter drones.

While they lack the heavy weaponry of their neighbors, their guerilla tactics are a defining characteristic of their military identity, hardened by their ideological rigidity, religious fervor and decades of asymmetric warfare.

How bad could it get?

Previous flare-ups have calmed after days of fighting, and mediation by foreign governments including Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

Analysts fear further escalation could compound instability.

Abdul Basit, a senior associate fellow from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies said there are “dangerous times ahead.”

“Any retaliation by the Afghans will be in Pakistan’s urban centers… This is a recipe for chaos and chaos is what terrorist networks seek to flourish.”

“Drones are a poor man’s air force, the Afghan Taliban have drones, they have suicide bombers, they are innovative,” he said.

“Pakistan has made clear it will act again if the Afghan Taliban fail to move against TTP leaders and fighters on Afghan soil,” said Samina Ahmed, the Crisis Group’s senior project director for South Asia and senior Asia adviser.

“Islamabad and Kabul should urgently resume negotiations, with facilitation from trusted partners such as Turkiye, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.”

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CNN’s Brad Lendon, Ivan Watson and Hira Humayun contributed reporting.