Americans ‘don’t like the look of things’ and are growing more worried about their job and their finances

(CNN) — Americans haven’t been this gloomy about their household finances in years – and they expect it’ll only get worse, new survey data showed Monday.

The share of Americans who said their financial situation in May was “somewhat worse off” or “much worse off” than a year ago was the largest since January 2023, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest monthly survey of US consumers, a closely watched gauge of economic perceptions and expectations.

The May Survey of Consumer Expectations also showed that the share of Americans who thought their finances would be “somewhat better off” or “much better off” shrank for the fifth month in a row to hit a level not seen since October 2022.

The monthly New York Fed surveys don’t include details or commentary behind the data; however, the downbeat household finance perceptions come at a time when a US-Israeli war against Iran is driving up costs – particularly for gas and some food – and exacerbating affordability concerns while driving overall sentiment to a record low.

The May survey also showed that Americans’ year-ahead inflation expectations remained elevated at 3.5% but had eased from the one-year high of 3.6% hit in April.

Sharply rising gas prices have sent inflation considerably higher in recent months. The Consumer Price Index, the most widely used inflation gauge, started the year at 2.4% and has risen to 3.8% as of April, erasing wage gains in the process.

Inflation expectations are closely watched by the Federal Reserve as potential predictors of future behavior that could be self-fulfilling: If people think prices will be steadily higher in the future, they might increase their spending or seek higher wages, which could in turn cause prices to rise.

The May data, which is scheduled for release on Wednesday, is expected to show that the annual pace of price hikes is running north of 4% for the first time in three years, further eroding Americans’ paychecks.

The labor market appears to be stabilizing after a shaky stretch of weak employment growth: The May jobs report showed an estimated net gain of 172,000 positions.

However, Monday’s New York Fed report showed that Americans aren’t that bullish.

The mean perceived probability of a job loss in the next year rose to 15.1%, a six-month high. And the mean perceived probability of landing a job in three months after being unemployed fell to 43.7%, a five-month low and well under pre-pandemic readings (which hovered around 60%), New York Fed data shows.

“Where you put the likelihood of finding a job in three months time if you lost your current job is a good indication of how you perceive the job market generally – and Americans don’t like the look of things,” Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, wrote in a note on Monday.

The job market has been stuck in a low-hire, low-fire environment with very little churn. With fewer opportunities, workers are clinging to the jobs they have, while job seekers have a hard time landing a role.

Monday’s survey, however, indicated that some Americans may be more willing to test the waters. The mean probability of voluntarily quitting one’s job increased to the highest level in more than three years.

“When employers aren’t hiring much and job offers aren’t rolling in, you can feel stuck and this typical path of development can slow to a crawl,” Renter said. “When we see broad-based hiring tick up, we’ll likely also see measures of consumer labor market sentiment rise, as workers have the opportunity to begin climbing the ladder again.”

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