Switzerland’s ‘Brexit moment’: Vote on a population cap sets up potential collision with EU

(CNN) — Switzerland is set to vote in a referendum Sunday on limiting its population size – a proposal driven by divisions over immigration that could, if approved, set the country on a collision course with the European Union.

The Swiss electorate will be asked a simple question: Should Switzerland’s population be capped at 10 million? If a majority vote yes, it would be the first nation in Europe to set a population limit.

The current population is a shade over 9 million – up from 8.3 million a decade ago. More than a quarter of its residents are foreign-born, according to government figures.

The proposal for a cap was put forward by the country’s largest political grouping, the right-wing Swiss People’s Party (SVP), which bills it as a question of “sustainability.”

The SVP claims on its campaign website that “uncontrolled immigration is causing Switzerland to grow far too quickly,” that the “negative consequences are noticeable in all areas of life” and that “many feel increasingly like strangers in their own country.”

But business leaders warn that the proposal to cap its population risks harming the economy and would leave companies struggling to fill jobs.

Jürg Müller, director of Swiss think-tank Avenir Suisse, told CNN that the country was feeling the strain of recent population growth driven in part by its economic successes. “You see the tensions on housing markets, infrastructure… access to lakes… it feels for many people too crowded.” The SVP “have taken this feeling and transformed it into this initiative,” he said.

There is broad political opposition to the measure. But Switzerland’s referendum system allows for proposals to be put to a public vote if they gather at least 100,000 signatures from eligible voters within 18 months.

Recent opinion polls suggest Sunday’s vote is likely to be very close. At the beginning of May, a poll indicated the two sides were evenly matched. More recently, those opposed to the cap appear to be marginally ahead, at 52%, according to gfs.bern, a pollster.

‘Switzerland is attractive’

The Swiss population has tripled over the past 100 years, according to Swiss government data. In 2024, the population reached the 9 million mark, as immigration far outweighed the impact of declining fertility rates. Switzerland is not a member of the European Union but a free-movement agreement has been in effect since 2002. It’s also part of the 29-nation Schengen area, which allows citizens border-free travel across most of Europe.

A large portion of its population, some 27%, is made up of foreign residents who do not hold a Swiss passport.

Many of those are from the European Union, with almost half of all foreign nationals in the country coming from just four nations – Italy, Germany, Portugal and France.

That level of migration is largely attributable, Müller says, to Switzerland’s relationship with the EU, its largest trading partner, and its physical location at the heart of Europe. Both these factors heavily influence the nation’s economic stability.

“Life in France and Germany has changed over the last decades, and in Switzerland quality of living is quite high … three hours you’re in Paris, three hours to Milan – it is just a nice spot to live,” Müller said.

“Switzerland is attractive. The economy is running well. Switzerland has been historically doing quite a few things right in terms of economic policies. It has historically had less regulation, lower taxes, than the neighboring countries.”

Müller contends that support for the referendum is motivated less by xenophobia than people’s concern that the population is growing at an uncontrolled rate.

However, the website of the pro-cap campaign appears to draw on anti-Muslim rhetoric to make its case.

“Problems with asylum seekers from Muslim countries. Studies show that certain migrant groups are many times more criminal than the rest of the population,” one section of the website reads.

Elsewhere on the website, a photo of a woman with her head covered holding up a Swiss passport appears under the subheading “Loss of culture and identity.” The same page describes “creeping Islamization” and concerns over harassment of women at a Swiss swimming pool carried out, it claims, by French nationals of North African origin.

The SVP declined to speak with CNN for this story.

“It is utterly xenophobic. Ultimately, it makes scapegoats out of foreigners, as if they’re the answer to all of society’s ills. It is dangerous because it is deceitful,” Delphine Klopfenstein, a Green member of parliament, told Reuters.

Beat Jans, a member of the Federal Council, the body that runs Switzerland, was quoted by the Zurich-based Tages-Anzeiger newspaper as saying: “On June 14, we will experience Switzerland’s Brexit moment. A ‘yes’ vote would put us in isolation.”

How the cap would work

Should the vote pass, the government would be obliged to pass measures to curb migration in two phases.

First, the government would have to refuse entry to newcomers including asylum seekers and the families of foreign residents once the population reaches 9.5 million.

Then, if the population hits 10 million, the government would be forced to end its free-movement agreement with the EU.

Critics have warned that a yes vote could have major repercussions for the Swiss economy, which relies on foreign workers to fill many roles.

Economiesuisse, the nation’s largest business union, said the proposal was “a dangerous boomerang” that “poses a massive threat to Swiss prosperity,” calling the vote “a chaos initiative.”

Prof. Rudolf Minsch, chief economist at Economiesuisse, an umbrella organization for the Swiss business sector, warned late last year that a population cap would exacerbate labor shortages in a country with an ageing population. “Significantly more people will retire than young people will join the workforce,” he wrote, adding, “if the immigration of urgently needed workers is stopped, Switzerland will find itself in a vicious circle: in restaurants and hotels, hospitals, at kiosks… or in the export industry – there would be a shortage of foreign workers everywhere.”

Martin von Moos, president of HotellerrieSuisse, an association representing the Swiss hotel industry, said: “The shortage of skilled labor, which would worsen as a result of the initiative, would lead to increased costs that many companies would have to pass on. At the same time, it would be more difficult to maintain the usual level of service, especially for smaller businesses.”

The ultimate decision rests now with the Swiss people, with the outcome expected to become clearer from Sunday evening onwards.

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